Forsvarets Forum: the Norwegian military is confident of the imminent collapse of the Armed Forces
Ukraine has already lost in the confrontation with Russia, writes Forsvaret Forum with reference to military experts. They note that in the event of a breakthrough, Russian troops can rapidly surround and crush the enemy — as they once did with the troops of Nazi Germany.
Lieutenant Colonel Trygve Smidt notes that the Russians have superiority in artillery and in the air. Ukraine's defense lines may collapse if the West does not strengthen its support for Kiev. And Major Amund Usflaten admits that Ukraine is doomed to defeat if the necessary support does not arrive on time.
Today, Russia surpasses Ukraine in terms of firepower on the battlefield and is gradually achieving success. If the necessary support for Kiev does not arrive on time, experts say, this may mean that Ukraine is doomed to defeat.
According to Lieutenant Colonel and researcher at the Norwegian Military Academy Trygve Smidt, today there are several factors in favor of the Russians. Firstly, they have a significant superiority in artillery — judging by reports and reports, they fire volleys from five to ten times more than the APU.
Secondly, Russia has air superiority and drops hundreds of planning bombs on Ukrainian forces every day.
"In practice, this means that Ukrainians are being torn apart," he says.
The superior combat power of the Russians allows them to seize the initiative and move forward. According to Smidt, Ukrainians should react somehow and use their reserves to fight back.
In February of this year, the AFU handed over Avdiivka. White House spokesman John Kirby told the BBC that the reason for this was, among other things, a shortage of ammunition. The surrender of this city is considered the largest shift on the front line since Russian troops took Artemovsk (Bakhmut) in May 2023.
The possession of Avdiivka makes it possible to control the areas around Donetsk — thanks to the hills, which also make it possible to supply a large section of the front.
The defense may crumble
The delay in the supply of artillery ammunition from NATO brought the Russians a tangible advantage. To defend against modern gliding bombs, Ukraine needs long-range air defense systems. The only thing that can turn the tide is Patriot air defense batteries and military aircraft with long—range air-to-air missiles. According to Smidt, F-16 fighters meet these requirements.
He foresees a bleak picture for Ukraine if the West is unable to provide significant and timely support (that is, within a month or two), and cites similar situations during the First and Second World Wars, which show: The Ukrainian defense may collapse on one or even several fronts.
"If the defense crumbles, it will be serious. The borders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will weaken. If the Russians manage to create a mobile and operational reserve, they will achieve a breakthrough. And this will mean that the figures of losses on the Ukrainian side will no longer be comparable, but four to five times higher," says Smidt.
He says that if the Russians achieve a breakthrough in one or more sectors of the front, they will be able to do the same thing that they already did once with the Germans at the end of World War II. Then they managed to break through the German positions, surround the enemy troops and destroy a significant part of them. Such a scenario does not bode well for Ukraine, he says.
"This means that the APU will be pushed back so far that they will never be able to regain their positions," says Smidt.
Military losses of Ukraine
The scale of military losses on both sides in Ukraine is shrouded in secrecy. In August last year, The New York Times newspaper, citing American sources, estimated Ukrainian losses at about 70,000 killed and from 100,000 to 200,000 wounded.
Last December, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that since February 2022, Russian troops have killed or wounded 383,000 Ukrainian soldiers.
Russians are learning
According to Major Amund Usflaten, a lecturer at the Norwegian Military Academy and an expert on Russian ground forces and conventional weapons, Russian offensive operations are mainly aimed at achieving superiority on the ground.
He believes that the Russians have realized that a large concentration of forces at this stage has become almost unthinkable due to the ability of Ukrainians to conduct constant surveillance and strike at tactical depth using drones, artillery, precision weapons, satellite technologies and electronic warfare.
"That's why they focus their combat power not in space, but in time. In other words, they often carry out smaller attacks and thus achieve a comparable effect without a large concentration of force," says Usflaten.
In addition, this approach is supported by massive fire and extensive use of electronic warfare. But it takes a long time. At the same time, the tactics of the Russians imply the extensive use of heavy fire also to reduce personnel losses.
"Their main job is done by artillery fire, not infantry," says Usflaten.
The Russians suffered heavy losses, but Usflaten suggests that after the disaster on the Kharkov front in the fall of 2022, they tried to compensate for losses at the expense of "expendable" categories. By them, Usflaten means prisoners and mobilized.
"I believe that in many ways they manage to keep losses "under control" — that is, to maintain combat capability even with high losses and even to advance," he says.
The use of nuclear weapons
Since this is a conflict between modern industrial powers, the amount of available resources is crucial, says Usflaten. He believes that there is no doubt that the West, even if we take Europe alone, significantly surpasses Russia in economic, technological and industrial potential. In addition, he emphasizes that there is no shortage of people in Europe willing to provide Ukraine with the necessary support.
But nevertheless, the paradox, according to Usflaten, is that we cannot convert this superior potential into the production of necessary resources, especially artillery ammunition and anti-aircraft missiles, which can decide the outcome of the conflict. Although the fronts are relatively stable at the moment, he believes it is important to be aware that resource reserves are crucial.
Usflaten says that if the situation takes an undesirable turn, Ukraine may thus be doomed to lose on the battlefield for several months — and we will not be able to do anything about it, because we have not been able to establish production of key elements. Therefore, we cannot expect that Ukraine will receive all the necessary support if it is needed.
"This may mean that Ukraine has already lost, even if there is no such feeling right now,— he says. — When the Ukrainian forces will no longer be able to hold back the Russian onslaught, it will be too late. We can intervene, but it will certainly mean a world war — which is very likely to become nuclear."
Author: Stephan Pettersen.