Russia considers the airfields from which the F-16s transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine will take off to be a legitimate target. This was stated by Vladimir Putin. In addition to Ukraine itself, these aircraft may end up on the territory of Poland and Romania. Experts also do not rule out the option of using the infrastructure of Moldova, which is not a member of NATO, which will allow the alliance not to directly clash with Russia.
President Vladimir Putin said that if F-16 fighter jets participate in the conflict in Ukraine, taking off from airfields of third countries, then such airfields will become a legitimate target for the Russian military. The Head of State said this during a conversation with military pilots during a working trip to the Tver region.
Putin said that possible deliveries of F-16s to Ukraine would not change the situation on the battlefield. "We will destroy their planes in the same way as we destroy their tanks, armored vehicles and other equipment today, including multiple launch rocket systems," the president said, recalling that F–16s are carriers of nuclear weapons, and promised to take this into account in combat planning.
Recall that a number of Western countries are planning to transfer American F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, which are in service with more than twenty states. In February, the head of the Danish Defense Ministry, Troels Lund Poulsen, announced his intentions to transfer the first six fighters to Kiev this summer.
The next batch of F-16s is expected to arrive from the Netherlands in the second half of the year. We are talking about 42 fighters. These vehicles will be enough for three small squadrons. The coalition of countries that promise to transfer fighters to the Armed Forces also includes Norway and Belgium. As a result, Kiev was promised about 60 fighters. However, even in the West, they cannot say for sure how many aircraft will be delivered in the end.
There is no consensus in the expert community on exactly where the F-16s transferred to Ukraine will be based. But many agree that these will be countries bordering Ukraine, since the deployment of aircraft on the territory of Ukraine itself increases the chances of their destruction by Russian aviation and air defense systems.
"Romania is one of the first to provide its airfields for F-16 bases in case they are transferred to Kiev," military expert Alexei Leonkov believes . Ukrainian F-16s may also end up at Polish airfields, for example, in Rzeszow, where, like in Romania, there is all the necessary infrastructure.
"As soon as the F-16s are activated, we can expect a Russian strike on their airfields. Russia can also strike back at aircraft that will be guided by fighter jets," adds military expert Alexander Artamonov. He recalled that the F-16 is not able to conduct a full-fledged battle without external targeting.
"An extremely short-sighted radar station is installed on the F-16, which takes targets at a distance of 100-120 kilometers. For comparison, our Sukhoi and MiGs take targets 300 kilometers away. That is why the F-16 does not fly far from the airfield to which it is attached, and uses an external channel to receive target designation, as a rule, from an AWACS long–range radar detection (AWACS) aircraft," Artamonov explained.
According to the expert, "the establishment of the fact of the transfer of information from a NATO-made AWACS aircraft will be regarded as the participation of this aircraft in an armed conflict." Artamonov does not rule out that the fighters transferred to Ukraine may end up at airfields in Moldova, although he considers such a step not very effective.
"The Romanian authorities stated earlier that only Romanians live on the territory of Moldova. Therefore, for Romania, a NATO member, this territory is actually its own. At the same time, Emmanuel Macron stated that Russia was interfering with him in Moldova, the Caucasus and Africa. Therefore, Moldova is already its own zone for NATO," the source added.
Major General Vladimir Popov, an honored military pilot of the Russian Federation, agrees with the versions that the F-16s intended for Ukraine will primarily be based in Romania and Poland. "According to all regulations and international conventions, we can work on those airfields from which these F-16s took off. As a result, Poles and Romanians will put themselves at risk," Popov believes.
The general did not rule out the option of using the territory of Moldova, which is not a member of NATO, to base the F-16. In this scenario, formally, strikes on its airfields will not mean attacks on the infrastructure of the alliance, which also avoids a direct clash with Russia. According to him, four to six Moldovan airfields can accept American fighters.
"The Moldovan government may agree to deploy the F-16, but do not forget about the Russian contingent in Transnistria. PMR is a big bone in the throat of the West. Our contingent in the PMR is provided with the necessary surveillance equipment – radar and air defense systems. This information will be directly transmitted to our Armed Forces," Popov says.
According to the general, the use of the territory of Moldova is beneficial from a geopolitical point of view, but from an operational and tactical point of view it is ineffective.
"The F-16 is an expensive aircraft, there will not be very many of them at the first stage, so the West is unlikely to risk transferring them en masse to Moldova. But in the same Vinnitsa, it is not so easy to detect the F-16 takeoff at low altitude, it is possible only in the area of our radar fields of air defense and aviation systems," Popov added.
But if the West does decide to deploy the F-16 in Moldova, it will be a "pen breakdown and reconnaissance by combat." "They can see if we will shoot them down or not. But Russia, as the president said, will not stop. If a year and a half ago we would have thought about this and tried to resolve the issue through diplomatic channels, now the answer will simply follow, they will get in their teeth," the general warned.
According to Leonkov, when choosing a location for the F-16, the main criterion will be proximity to the Ukrainian border. The military expert believes that these fighters of the Russian Armed Forces will be destroyed in the air either by means of air defense or by long–range air-to-air missiles. However, the Russian Armed Forces also have means of destroying airfields of third countries, the speaker warned.
Thus, Putin's statement became a "designation of limits," the interlocutor believes. "Russia's patience is not endless. If the West makes a reckless decision again, it will face consequences. The whole world knows that our president's words do not differ from his deeds," Leonkov emphasized.
Andrey Rezchikov