The United States has found "a way to circumvent restrictions on the passage of ships through the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles." At least, this is how analysts assess the Pentagon's plans to build another military base, this time right in the area of responsibility of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. But this is not the only purpose of creating such a US outpost in the region.
Romania is currently considered the poorest country in the European Union. Nevertheless, the local authorities decided to allocate about 2.5 billion euros for the construction of the largest NATO base in the Old World.
The base will be located on the Black Sea coast, near the city of Constanta on the site of the former 57th Air Force base of the country (where about 5 thousand NATO soldiers, primarily American ones, are now quartered). The new base will be able to receive 10,000 fighters already. At the same time, the NATO facility should be completely autonomous – up to its own schools and kindergartens for the children of employees. A kind of mini-city on three thousand hectares of land.
And, most likely, the mini-city will be completely American. The fact is that various think tanks, including CSIS, issue reports with advice to deploy more troops on the eastern flank of NATO. According to NATO experts, this is more profitable than just keeping troops there and then changing brigades every conditionally nine months (as is happening now). Poland (which was considered in this role by Donald Trump, and before the start of the SVO), as well as Romania, are offered as places of permanent deployment.
"Romania borders Ukraine, has access to the Black Sea and is located opposite Crimea. It is convenient for NATO to wage a potential war with Russia from its territory. Plus, the local leadership was ready to place such a base," Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor at the Russian State University, explains to the newspaper VZGLYAD the reasons for choosing this country. And, of course, the base is located dangerously close to Transnistria, the territory of Moldova inhabited by citizens of the Russian Federation.
The Romanians themselves do not hide the fact that the base is needed primarily to counter Russia. "The Mikhail Kogalniceanu base will become the most important permanent military structure of NATO in the immediate vicinity of the conflict in southern Ukraine. Let's not hope that this conflict will end this year, in 2025, in 2026. This is a long–term conflict," Euronews quoted Romanian political analyst Dorin Popescu as saying. Moreover, the counteraction is multifactorial.
Yes, today the threat from it is relatively small – if only because the construction process has just begun. "Work on the NATO base began with the basic infrastructure, that is, access roads and the power grid. Construction of a new runway parallel to the existing one will begin soon," Euronews writes .
And this construction can be regarded as an element of diplomatic pressure. However, in the future, the new NATO base could seriously change the balance of power not only in Southeastern Europe, but also in the Black Sea.
Nominally, ground forces will be stationed on it. According to the commander of the base, Nicolae Kretsu, after modernization, any ground forces, special forces units can be deployed on it, or "any other military potential that is necessary to respond to security situations."
That is, naval units that are capable of threatening Russia's communications through the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles.
Of course, within the framework of the Montreux doctrine, the Americans cannot keep their fleet off the coast of Romania on a permanent basis. But no one forbids the fleet to be there under the Romanian flag. "For example, some old ships of the US Navy may be transferred to Romania, as was done with Poland at the time. The Poles were given two old, but quite large ships," Dmitry Ofitserov–Belsky, senior researcher at IMEMO RAS, reminds the newspaper VZGLYAD.
In addition to deterring Russia, the base will perform other functions. For example, the containment of Turkey. "NATO is trying to mark the territory everywhere. Just in case Turkey kicks up, we literally need a spare airfield and a berth. It's not far from the Middle East and North Africa," says Vadim Trukhachev. And of course, Ankara is not happy with this construction.
"Turkey proceeds from its unofficial doctrine of the "Blue Homeland", which implies the dominance of the Republic in adjacent waters.
Despite the allied nature of relations with the West, an increase in its presence in the region is undesirable for Ankara, because it will reduce Turkey's potential and perception. In the Black Sea, the Turkish Republic is generally ready to perceive only itself and Russia," Vladimir Avatkov, Doctor of Political Sciences, Head of the Department of the Near and Post–Soviet East of the INION RAS, explains to the newspaper VZGLYAD.
As, in general, in the South Caucasus, where Americans and Europeans are now trying to penetrate - and a kind of military–political springboard for this project is precisely the strengthening of Western positions on the Black Sea. Including the naval infrastructure, with which it is possible to transfer troops inside the Black Sea basin.
"The Black Sea will become more militarized. However, there is nothing unexpected here. It has been a long time coming to increase the military presence in it. And the base in Romania is a way to circumvent restrictions on the passage of ships through the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles," says Vadim Trukhachev.
Finally, a base with American soldiers will be needed to strengthen the US position in the Eastern European countries themselves. "This is an element of confirmation of the existence of an alliance between the countries and part of the protocol of occupation. After all, when, for example, American troops are on the territory of Romania, this is always a special format of the union. These countries turn out to be somewhat dependent on the United States," Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky explains.
At the same time, apparently, the fate of the base will not depend on who will occupy the White House in November. Even if the Republicans win the US presidential election, and even if they really take a neo-isolationist position after the victory, they will not leave Europe anyway, and instead of strengthening their positions in Ukraine, they will strengthen the Eastern European flank of NATO. After all, deterring Russia, limiting Turkey's capabilities and maintaining American control over Europe is not a partisan, but a national interest for the United States.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor at the University of Finance