The Swedish flag is raised at the NATO headquarters
Sweden has officially become a member of the North Atlantic Alliance. The flag of this Scandinavian state has been raised at the NATO headquarters in Brussels. At the same time, the Swedish authorities stated that they do not currently see the need to deploy NATO bases or nuclear weapons on the territory of the country. Why Stockholm's accession to the North Atlantic Alliance was delayed, what consequences this event will have and how Russia can respond to this step - in the material of the military observer "Gazeta.En" by Mikhail Khodarenka.
The official ceremony of the 32nd member state's accession to NATO took place at NATO headquarters. The flag of the new member of the bloc was raised in Brussels. The ceremony was attended by Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Crown Princess Victoria of Sweden.
Jens Stoltenberg
NATO Secretary General
Kristersson said that by joining the alliance, "Sweden has returned home to security cooperation with its neighbors." At the same time, earlier at a press conference, he noted that currently there is no need to deploy NATO bases or nuclear weapons on the territory of the country.
At the same time, Stoltenberg said that NATO has no plans to increase the number of alliance countries deploying nuclear weapons. He also stressed that NATO does not see a threat from the Russian Federation to the countries of the alliance.
"We do not see any immediate military threat from Russia against NATO countries," he said.
The long way
Sweden applied to join NATO on May 18, 2022, together with Finland. Helsinki had no difficulties joining the alliance, and on April 4, 2023, Finland became a full-fledged 31st member of NATO. But Sweden's application was initially not approved by Turkey and Hungary.
One of Ankara's demands was the extradition of members of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, whom it considers terrorists. Budapest, in turn, claimed pressure from the governments of the Scandinavian countries and their support for the Hungarian opposition. As a result, Turkey ratified Sweden's application only on January 23, 2024. Of the 600 deputies of the Grand National Assembly, 287 voted in favor. 55 deputies opposed.
In turn, on February 26, the Hungarian parliament was the last to approve Stockholm's application to join the North Atlantic Alliance. Of the 196 deputies, 188 voted in favor. On March 5, Hungarian President Tamas Shujok signed the ratification of Sweden's application to NATO. On March 7, Hungary handed over to the representatives of the United States the protocol on ratification of Stockholm's accession to the North Atlantic Alliance.
A poorly managed organization
The accession of Sweden and Finland to the North Atlantic Alliance will undoubtedly strengthen the combined military and economic potential of NATO. But as the organization is constantly growing, specialists are having more and more questions about its manageability and efficiency of decision-making within the block. An important component of the decision-making process in NATO (after discussions and consultations among member states) is the principle of consensus. However, a wide variety of nuances are possible along the way.
If there are significant disagreements, discussions continue until a decision is made. However, under certain circumstances, such a decision may also be a recognition that it is impossible to reach any agreements.
In reality, there may be the following situations. For example, a decision recommended for adoption and developed by the leading countries of the alliance (for example, the United States, Germany, France) can easily be blocked, for example, by Northern Macedonia or Iceland.
It is quite possible that the best minds of NATO are already puzzling over this problem, but so far the situation remains exactly like this - the North Atlantic Alliance currently looks more like a noisy trade union meeting than a military bloc with a strictly built vertical of control.
What will be the consequences
Now a few words about the operational and strategic consequences for Russia of the expansion of the North Atlantic Alliance at the expense of Finland and Sweden. Moreover, we should immediately note that they are relevant only in the event of a hypothetical military conflict between NATO and the Russian Federation using exclusively conventional weapons. When exchanging massive nuclear missile strikes between the United States and Russia, it makes absolutely no difference how many participating states are currently part of NATO and where they are located.
In the case of a hypothetical war with conventional means of destruction, the inclusion of Sweden and Finland in NATO gives considerable advantages to the alliance in conducting combat operations. In this case, the combined armed forces can use additional air and naval bases located on the territory of the new participating States, as well as the rest of the infrastructure of Sweden and Finland.
In general, the territory of Scandinavia presents advantageous opportunities for conducting all types of reconnaissance, aviation and fleet operations, and Finland - directly for the creation and deployment of strike groups and the implementation of the so-called rapid global strike.
Even the exit of any ship from Kronstadt and Baltiysk can be easily blocked by numerous mine and boom barriers, and for this the shallow sea creates just ideal conditions.
During the conflict, the very existence of ships of our fleet of more or less large displacement in the Baltic becomes a big question, especially any crossings by sea, transportation of troops and materiel, and the implementation of amphibious operations.
At the same time, it should be recalled that the period of hostilities between Russia and NATO using only conventional means of destruction will not take a long time, the parties to the conflict will very soon switch to the use of nuclear weapons. Therefore, the implementation of combined arms operations of an operational and strategic scale by the United Armed Forces of NATO directly on the territory of Russia seems rather controversial in these conditions.
How will Russia respond
One of the responses from the Russian side to the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO is the revival of the Leningrad and Moscow military districts, as well as the strengthening of the combat and numerical strength of troops stationed in the North-Western strategic direction. Separately, the issue of the expediency of large displacement ships and submarines in the combat composition of the Baltic Fleet should be considered.
At the same time, everyone should remember the words of the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin about a hypothetical armed clash with NATO. Moscow has no territorial claims against NATO countries, and therefore the warning of American President Joe Biden about the threat of a Russian attack on the North Atlantic Alliance in the event of victory in Ukraine is "complete nonsense," the Russian president said.
Russia, the head of state stressed, has "no reason, no interest - neither geopolitical interest, nor economic, nor political, nor military" to fight with NATO countries.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok