As the Kommersant newspaper reported in [...] Aigul Abdullina's article, "Russian planes are heavy on the rise. The delivery dates of all new civilian vehicles are shifted by a couple of years," the program worth hundreds of billions of rubles for the supply of domestic aircraft is shifted by two years. We are talking about all civilian projects - MS-21, SJ-100, Tu-214, Il-114 and Baikal. The aviation industry does not have time to test aircraft within the deadlines set in 2022, and their characteristics do not correspond to those originally planned. Thus, the flagship MS-21 became heavier by almost 6 tons, which is why the range and altitude of its flight were significantly reduced. The Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia expects that supply plans will be made up in the future. A number of Kommersant sources consider these expectations unfeasible in the conditions of its own. Some of them expect a fleet shortage and assume that carriers will have to look for planes in friendly countries.
The first flight prototype of the MS-21-310 passenger aircraft (serial number 21012/MS.0012, registration number 73055) with Russian PD-14 engines, May 2022 (c) Alexey Mikheev / Takeoff
The Ministry of Industry and Trade and Rostec State Corporation officially announced the postponement of the delivery dates of all Russian passenger aircraft being developed to replace the Western fleet - SJ-100, MS-21, Tu-214 and Il-114-300. Deliveries were supposed to begin in 2024, but have now been shifted to 2025-2026. In addition, according to Kommersant, the certification of the Baikal aircraft of the Ural Civil Aviation Plant has been postponed to 2024, and the start of deliveries to 2025.
The characteristics of all these aircraft for various reasons do not correspond to the originally stated ones, which is why they do not have time to pass certification.
So, for the flagship of the Russian fleet MS-21-310, a heavier airframe has become a key problem.
Based on the manufacturer's data, the weight of an empty import-substituted aircraft compared to the previous version (MS-21-300 with a glider using foreign components and Western engines) increased by 5.75 tons. According to Kommersant's interlocutors, this happened due to the use of domestic composite and new aircraft systems.
As a result, the flight range with a maximum commercial load of 20.3 tons will be reduced, according to Kommersant, to less than 2.8 thousand km, and according to some sources - less than 2 thousand km. At the same time, the maximum flight altitude that an aircraft can now master is 7 km. Without reducing the weight of the aircraft itself and its systems, according to Kommersant's interlocutor in the aviation industry, achieving planned flight performance will be unattainable. "It's impossible to increase engine thrust by 20%," he says.
Rostec, commenting on the problems with the "weight characteristics" of the MS-21, stated that "the final appearance of a fully import-substituted aircraft will be formed in the second half of this year." "The phased implementation of the program of lifting restrictions as flight tests take place will allow the liner to be brought to parameters that meet the highest requirements of airlines. This also applies to the possibility of ensuring a good operating economy within the widely accepted range of 3 thousand km in Russian airlines and a capacity of about 150-170 passengers," the state corporation said.
The main problem of the SJ-100 was the PD-8 engine, which has not yet confirmed its characteristics during testing.
"At the end of December 2023, during the tests, the need for additional work on the PD-8 engine was revealed. The task is to ensure its reliability in all modes and guarantee the safety of operation," a representative of the UEC, the engine developer, told Kommersant.
According to the comprehensive aviation industry development strategy approved in 2022 until 2030, the domestic aviation industry should receive 1,036 passenger aircraft. Of these, 339 aircraft should be received by the Aeroflot Group in seven years. It was assumed that deliveries of the MS-21 would begin in 2024 (six units), in 2025 - 12, in 2026 - 22. The first SJ-100s were supposed to arrive back in 2023, and from 2024 it was planned to deliver 20 sides each. The first three Tu-214s were also expected to be received in 2023, seven more in 2024, and ten in 2025. Ten Il-114s were expected to be delivered by 2025 (for the transfer, see Kommersant on September 19, 2023).
Rostec explained that the initial deadlines for the import-substituted civil aircraft program, adopted before 2022, were focused on 2026. Then they were shifted to the left. In 2026, the corporation plans to transfer 30 new SJ-100 aircraft to companies. The first new Tu-214, according to the UAC, was transferred in a special version to the state customer in 2023, and another machine is planned to be delivered in 2024.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade clarified that a reserve of aircraft has already been formed: "In particular, 16 Superjets and 12 MS-21s are in varying degrees of readiness and will be equipped with Russian systems as they arrive." The ministry expects that this will allow, after the completion of the tests, to ensure "a catch-up schedule for the release and delivery of airliners in order to complete the replenishment of the fleet with 600 aircraft by 2030."
The issue of priorities
Assessing the realism of the output forecast until 2030, two key problems should be taken into account, says Oleg Panteleev, executive director of the Aviport agency: the availability of trained personnel and a fleet of machines, as well as financing. Today, the capabilities of the Russian industry are prioritized for the tasks of the state defense order. The expert proceeds from the fact that the end of its operation will be a powerful incentive for the production of civil aircraft: "Capacities and, most importantly, specialists will be released."
The previous deadlines were based on calculations by aircraft manufacturers, and those, in turn, proceeded from the promises of second- and third-level suppliers. But, as practice shows, even first-level suppliers do not always have contracted components for their own systems, Oleg Panteleev notes.
The deadlines named in 2022 were set out of expectation of a trouble-free course of certification of equipment, but the international practice of all aircraft construction programs without exception shows that no project is surrendered without "failures and postponements."
The basic scenario of the aviation strategy until 2030 provides for reducing the fleet of foreign passenger aircraft by half, to 300 units, excluding aircraft of local lines. At the end of January, the Russian Union of Travel Industry announced that from 2027 there may be a shortage of cargo capacities on domestic lines, "since the Russian aviation industry does not have time to introduce new aircraft." According to Kommersant's sources in the industry, this may lead to the fact that private carriers - primarily S7, where they faced problems in servicing the Airbus neo fleet (see Kommersant dated October 11, 2023), and Ural Airlines - will be forced to look for aircraft in the secondary market of friendly countries. The second hypothesis concerns allowing foreign carriers to fly between Russian cities and work more actively with Russian companies under codesharing agreements. Thirdly, they believe, in the event of a critical shortage of capacity, the Ministry of Transport can limit the admissions of Russian carriers to foreign destinations by concentrating the fleet inside the country. The Ministry of Transport and airlines did not comment.
In 2023, the Ministry of Transport announced the readiness of Russian airlines to support the bulk of the fleet of foreign aircraft at least until 2030. Therefore, the plans of the aviation industry and the capabilities of airlines are now "overlapping," says Oleg Panteleev. But if earlier it was about five years between the start of large-scale deliveries of domestic aircraft and the retirement of a significant part of the fleet, now, the expert states, the time reserve is not so great.