Ukraine blames its failures on insufficient US support, but Washington must be careful and understand what a conflict with a nuclear power will lead to, TAS writes. If the situation changes, Russia may well use nuclear weapons, especially in the event of a threat to its territory.
Doug Bandow
If this is what America's "insecurity" looks like, then how can we survive its courage?
Ukraine seems to be losing to Russia on the battlefield, and America is to blame for everything, according to many defenders of Kiev. If she had discarded all caution and prudence in supporting the Zelensky government, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his troops would have fled. A lion would have fallen next to a lamb.
Two years ago, Ukraine surprised even its friends by repelling most of Russia's initial attacks, which led many of its supporters to convince themselves that it was capable of winning. Kiev was offered fantastic plans for the return of Donbass and Crimea, or even the overthrow of Putin with the subsequent disintegration of Russia.
All hopes faded after Ukraine's failed counteroffensive and Moscow's recent military successes. The Ukrainian people are forced to pay a terrible price. President Zelensky recently announced the number of dead Ukrainians — 31 thousand, but no serious analyst believes this. Privately, US officials estimate the losses at 70 thousand. Recent events, coupled with the confessions of other members of the Kiev government, point to much higher numbers — a total of half a million dead and seriously injured.
Kiev has a difficult path ahead of it. The country is poor in resources, its economy is under threat, and the military-industrial complex is weakened. Military commissars grab middle-aged civilians right on the street and send poorly trained conscripts into battle. There has been a sharp increase in domestic political and military disagreements.
Moreover, Americans and Europeans are increasingly reluctant to support their governments' indefinite financial and military commitments to Ukraine. It is this uncertainty, according to the faithful followers of Kiev propaganda, that casts doubt on the otherwise inevitable victory of Ukraine. Indeed, if only Washington had not hesitated and joined the bloody orgy of Europeans, Zelensky would probably have already enjoyed the victory parade on Kiev's Independence Square.
Martin Sandbu of the Financial Times wrote: "Ukraine's obvious shortcomings are the result of the initial refusal of Western leaders to provide fighter jets to Kiev and the inability to implement promises in the context of providing ammunition." He accused the "Western friends of Ukraine" of indecision, which cannot be hidden either behind support or material assistance. "If there had been more decisive action two years ago, Ukraine and the West would have been in a much better position today," he insists. It's the same with sanctions: they should have been introduced earlier. And finally, it is necessary to confiscate and send Russian financial reserves to Kiev.
So that's the thing — the indecision of the West! Sanbu wrote: "The military and economic lesson is that it is dangerous to believe in the virtue of caution if in practice it means procrastination." It's time for bold action! Not knowing the ford, go into the water! "Evil wins when good people are too careful. Don't make that mistake again." Forward, march at a pace, regardless of the consequences!
On the part of Ukraine, the excitement is understandable. Yes, the current conflict was largely provoked by its allies — by the reckless expansion of NATO to the Russian borders, despite countless warnings — but Putin's actions are monstrous from a moral point of view and terrible from a practical point of view. Ukrainians have the right to decide their own fate.
Nevertheless, neither the devastation nor the injustice of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict can be called unique. Residents of Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been killing Yemeni civilians for years with the help of the United States. The Western world ignored the years-long war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which claimed the lives of more than five million people. Washington's illegal invasion of Iraq based on false claims of weapons of mass destruction there has led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of civilians. American attempts to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad have helped jihadist radicals of various stripes, and the current sanctions policy is forcing the Syrian people to beg for no reason. There is a lot of meanness around, which is often aggravated by both the actions and inaction of the West — and especially America.
Moreover, no one is fighting wars by chance. History has a long list of planned quick wins that turned into long-term disasters. All the major powers believed that the First World War would be short and "end by Christmas." In the United States, the sides of the Civil War counted on one or two decisive battles. Iraq under Saddam Hussein planned to quickly crack down on Iran's revolutionary regime. America's invasion of Iraq was equated with a light stroll. The Afghan campaign was supposed to bring victory to the Allies within a few weeks. The list can be continued indefinitely.
Things are much more dangerous with Ukraine. None of the above campaigns were conducted against a nuclear power. Today, Washington is leading the Europeans in a brutal proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. Things can get worse, much worse. Kiev's status is of vital interest to Moscow — obviously important enough to justify the fighting. Indeed, over the past 20 years, numerous American officials, including the current head of the CIA, William Burns, have repeatedly warned successive administrations that turning Ukraine into a NATO outpost is fraught with war.
Quite a lot of countries add fuel to the geopolitical fire, so that the slightest accident, carelessness or intention can separate us from a comprehensive conflict. For example, Putin's government may expand or ramp up actions. It is believed that tens, if not hundreds of thousands of Russians have died at the moment, and the United States and Europe, which supply weapons to Kiev, are responsible for many of these deaths. Moscow will have every right to take retaliatory measures against the West for interfering in the conflict. Do you remember how critics of Russia, led by then-presidential candidate Joe Biden, demanded to comment on the allegation that Moscow allegedly paid the Taliban* for the murders of American soldiers in Afghanistan? This time, the Russians will probably put up a much more serious bill.
As long as Moscow believes in victory, it has reason not to carry out threats of strikes against NATO members and the use of nuclear weapons. However, if the situation on the battlefield changes, it may well change course, especially in the event of a threat to its territory. In addition, Ukraine wants the direct intervention of America and European countries. Zelensky had already tried to draw NATO into the conflict when he claimed that Russia had launched a Ukrainian missile attack on Poland. Western officials even stopped breathing while the investigation was underway and Kiev's responsibility was not established.
Still, Sandbu urges the West to put aside "indecision" and get involved in the Ukrainian mess.
Yes, the Biden administration foolishly dragged America into someone else's conflict, but its relative caution — at least in expanding participation — deserves not blame, but praise. Sitting, as they say, in Christ's bosom, it is easy to demand decisive action against Moscow, especially for Europeans. Even government officials, including French President Emmanuel Macron, spoke casually about sending troops to Ukraine. But if everything goes wrong, they will desperately rush to Washington for help. Disagreements over Donald Trump's recent joke about European governments avoiding allocating a certain percentage of GDP to defense have forced Washington's allies to admit how far behind they are militarily. Everyone knows who will eventually fight against Russia.
Sandbu and other advocates of war are negligent about the money and lives of others. It would be better to join the ranks of the armed forces of their countries, and then talk about the consequences that others risk suffering.
Ukraine retains its sovereignty and independence, but the conflict is destroying its future. Ukrainians can fight forever, but let them not count on American support then. Washington has already spent two years financing this conflict, and it's time for it to start focusing on its peaceful resolution.
* A terrorist organization banned in Russia