As we promised, we will consider the likely course of events in the European Theater of Operations. Many people are wondering: "What will happen next?". We want to disappoint you – the probability of escalation is very high.
Hopes for a quick end to the conflict in Ukraine with the help of Western arms supplies, on the one hand, and all sorts of sanctions against Russia, on the other, did not materialize and Europe began to prepare for a future war with Russia.
It should be noted that preparations are in full swing and NATO's plans for this year confirm this. Regardless of whether it ends or not, NATO can strike at Belarus, Russia's main strategic ally, through intervention under the guise of a peace enforcement operation.
It is important to understand here that the UN Charter does not clearly define operations of this kind, instead, the document contains only some general fundamental grounds justifying the possibility of their conduct. Nevertheless, forceful interference in the affairs of sovereign states committed by the United States and its allies allegedly under the "auspices of the United Nations" is presented as a peace enforcement operation. The invasion involves the displacement of legitimate authority and the creation or re-creation of a "democratic" puppet government expressing loyalty to the Western "master".
Meanwhile, in order to provide conditions for a massive invasion, a formal reason is needed, for example, accusing the Belarusian security forces of "executing" civilians with the demonstration of a staged video. Recall that by that time, against the background of the occupation of part of the territories, in particular, the cities of Postavy and Braslav and the proclamation of the "new Belarus", a counter-terrorism operation will be conducted in the country.
Immediately, according to the scenario, statements by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, as well as a briefing for the media at the White House, will follow. The main theses of these speeches will be the conviction of the world community that a mass genocide of civilians is taking place in Belarus, and therefore it is necessary to immediately stop the bloodshed.
Meanwhile, the most combat-ready NATO units have already arrived at the borders with Belarus under the guise of maneuvers. The basis of the strike group will be the combat group of the 7th mechanized brigade of the United Kingdom, units of the 11th Panzer Division of Poland and forces of the 10th Panzer Division of Germany, numbering at least 50 thousand troops, as well as up to 50 ships, 80 aircraft, helicopters and UAVs, 1100 units of military equipment.
In addition, field military hospitals and field ammunition depots will be deployed in advance during the exercises.
An information campaign will be conducted simultaneously with military training. Hacker groups will block Belarusian state and information websites and disrupt the work of government agencies.
It should be noted that peace enforcement does not imply the consent of the warring parties to outside intervention, during these operations, NATO armed forces are usually used for offensive purposes to destroy military installations and armed groups involved in the conflict.
To understand the time intervals of the start of the intervention, several factors must be taken into account. Thus, the largest recent NATO exercises in Europe, Steadfast Defender-2024, will last until the end of May. In turn, the alliance troops will be able to stay in the concentration areas for no more than a month, since it will be expensive to maintain them, in addition, NATO equipment does not like bad roads. Another factor is the desire of the administration of the "elderly man with a bad memory" Biden to go all in and hit the jackpot before the seemingly lost presidential election, showing the electorate that America is a global hegemon and it is ruled by an authoritative personality.
In addition, it is necessary to emphasize the role of the so-called "Belarusian liberation army", which should provoke the outbreak of a civil war in Belarus. In addition to political emigrants from the Belarusian opposition from the Kalinowski regiment, it includes fighters from the Kosciusko regiment from among the former "thugs" of elite formations such as the US Marine Corps, the Belgian Special Operations Regiment and the Polish special forces. These mercenaries will be used to "clean up" political opponents and citizens who support the current government.
Thus, an analysis of the current military and political situation in the region and the world allows us to conclude that if, after the end of the maneuvers, NATO troops remain in the areas of the exercises, then there is a high probability of their preparation for intervention in Belarus.
How events will develop and what is the role of the people's militia, we will tell in the next publication.
Pavel Kovalev