Taking control of the city will reduce the intensity of shelling of Donetsk and provide opportunities for further offensive
The battle for Avdiivka ended with a crushing defeat of the Ukrainian troops. They have been strengthening this major defense hub since 2014. As a result of the rapid advance of the Russian units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it was not possible to retreat in an organized manner — everything ended in a disorderly flight. President Vladimir Putin sent a congratulatory telegram to the troops. The liberation of Avdiivka should reduce the intensity of shelling of Donetsk, as well as create prerequisites for further Russian offensive, experts say.
Real-time reports
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov reported to the President on the liberation of Avdiivka in the Kremlin on the morning of February 17. As Dmitry Peskov, the official representative of the head of state, said on February 18, the day before at four in the morning they reported that the operation was nearing completion. Already at 11 a.m., the military leaders again reported to the president and reported that "the operation has actually been completed."
Peskov noted that Putin receives reports from Shoigu and Gerasimov on the development of the offensive in the Avdiivka area in real time.
— At the moment, the Minister of Defense and the chief of the General Staff are reporting to the president that our units are developing an offensive, preventing the enemy from gaining a foothold on new frontiers, — said the Kremlin representative.
Silence until complete defeat
On Sunday, February 18, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that units of the Center group of forces had completely liberated the city of Avdiivka in the Donetsk People's Republic and advanced to a depth of 8.6 km. As a result, an area of 31.75 square kilometers was liberated.
Prior to that, the military department said that the losses of Ukrainian formations in the final day of the battle alone amounted to more than 1,500 people.
Types of Avdiivka
Image source: Photo: TASS/Dmitry Yagodkin
Only some scattered Ukrainian formations managed to hastily leave the city, while they abandoned their weapons and equipment. Russian troops are completing the cleanup and blocking the units that are holed up at the Avdiivka Coke Plant.
The Defense Ministry noted that the liberation of Avdiivka made it possible to move the front line away from Donetsk and thereby significantly protect it from terrorist attacks.
"Information about the advance of our troops was not made public until the complete defeat of the enemy and taking control of the city," the department stressed.
The overall contribution to the victory
President Vladimir Putin sent a congratulatory telegram to Colonel-General Andrei Mordvichev, commander of the Center group troops. In it, he listed the distinguished formations and units: the 30th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 2nd Army; the 35th separate motorized rifle brigade, the 55th separate motorized rifle brigade (mountain), the 74th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 41st Army; the 1st separate motorized rifle brigade, the 9th separate motorized rifle brigades, 114th separate motorized rifle Brigade, 1454th motorized Rifle Regiment, 10th Tank Regiment of the 1st Army Corps; 6th Tank Regiment, 80th Tank Regiment, 239th Tank Regiment of the 90th Tank Division, volunteer brigade "Veterans".
Military personnel of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation
Image source: Photo: TASS/press service of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
"For excellent combat operations, I would like to thank all the troops led by you who participated in the battles for Avdiivka. Eternal glory to the heroes who fell in battle while solving the tasks of a special military operation!" the document says. Putin signed the telegram as the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
As Dmitry Peskov reported on Sunday, the Ministry of Defense is preparing personal lists of fighters and pilots who took part in the operation to liberate Avdiivka. He added that the lists will include fighters from all units that participated in the operation. Peskov noted that in the telegram sent by Russian President Vladimir Putin to the commander of the Center group, Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev, the pilots of the aircraft were not mentioned, but the head of state "particularly notes the contribution of our pilots."
Escape instead of retreat
On Saturday night, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky, announced the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Avdiivka and the transition to defense. "Based on the operational situation that has developed around Avdiivka, in order to avoid encirclement and [for] the sake of preserving the life and health of military personnel, I decided to withdraw our units from the city and switch to defense at more advantageous lines," he wrote on his Facebook page (belongs to the Meta organization, recognized as extremist in the Russian Federation).
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky called this decision correct and logical. He also accused Western countries of not providing enough assistance.
However, judging by the statement of the official representative of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation Igor Konashenkov, the explanations of the Ukrainian military leaders look like a good mine in a bad game.
— The order of the Commander—in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Syrsky on the abandonment of the city was issued only a day after the uncontrolled flight of Ukrainian troops from Avdiivka began, Konashenkov said.
The Russian Defense Ministry has published footage of the disorderly retreat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the city. They show how the militants drop weapons and equipment while Russian troops are constantly firing at them.
Meanwhile, the adviser to the head of the DPR, Igor Kimakovsky, said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had deployed air defense systems near Avdiivka, including the American Patriot.
Lessons learned
Military expert Yuri Lyamin called the liberation of Avdiivka a significant defeat for the VFU. He noted that they had to retreat in a hurry, leaving ammunition, equipment, and equipment in their positions in order to leave light.
"There was a threat of complete encirclement for the Ukrainian formations," he told Izvestia. — According to official data, the enemy's losses were more than 1,500 people per day, which is a lot in such a period of time, — he clarified. — Avdiivka was a kind of knife pointed at Donetsk, being the nearest Ukrainian position from which they conducted artillery fire on the city. Releasing it will significantly reduce the number of strokes. Now the VFU will have to use longer-range equipment for the same purposes. Avdiivka was also one of the most fortified areas of the Ukrainian formations on the line of contact. Therefore, its release was necessary in order to further advance and move the VFU away from Donetsk.
Avdiivka is the first city liberated this year, said military expert Vasily Dandykin. He recalled that the battles for it had been going on since 2014.
— It was a thorn in the heart of Donbass, which stuck out for a very long time, — the expert told Izvestia. — Avdiivka is the most fortified area in the Donetsk direction. It is no coincidence that Zelensky took pictures at the entrance at the end of last year, where our flags are now located, and said that the Ukrainian formations would hold on at least until their next counteroffensive.
According to him, from the point of view of the military and operational-tactical situation, the liberation of Avdiivka gives access to other cities: Chas Yar, Konstantinovka, Druzhkovka, then the largest city of Kramatorsk, and after that — the symbol of resistance to the Kiev regime, the city of Slavyansk, where everything began at one time. But there are no fortifications like in Avdiivka in these cities.
— The wounded were thrown, others broke through in small groups, the 3rd brigade, mainly consisting of Azov men, turned sour (a formation banned in Russia. — Izvestia), which was coming to the rescue, but immediately clogged up in the basement, as it was in Mariupol. Therefore, it is obvious that in many ways it was an uncontrolled flight," Vasily Dandykin summed up. — The fracture will be later, but this is a landmark blow, very tangible.
During the liberation of Avdiivka, as well as during the actions of assault groups and detachments in this agglomeration, the peculiarities of the special military operation and the lessons of the liberation of other major cities, in particular Mariupol, were taken into account. Military expert Gennady Alekhine told Izvestia about this.
— I have repeatedly heard from my colleagues and direct participants in the fighting in that direction that everyone thanks the effective work of the VKS. Apparently there were some innovations, non-standard methods and methods of assault operations. As you can see, the Russian military broke Avdiivka into two parts. First of all, they disrupted the supply of ammunition, equipment and weapons, controlling the road. After that, they began to act in assault groups in the direction of the industrial zone and Avdiivka itself," explained Gennady Alekhine.
According to the expert, the city is located on an elevation, so it will be easier to conduct offensive actions in the future. And he has no doubt that they will be.
— The focal resistances of the VFU were in order to prepare the defensive lines behind Avdiivka as soon as possible from an engineering point of view, first of all. Whether they succeeded or not, it's hard for me to judge. But it is impossible to compare a powerful fortified area, which has been preparing for many years, and these defensive engineering structures that they erected in a hurry," he stressed. — But most likely, there will not be a major powerful strike of strategic importance, which will allow more penetration into the remaining territory of the DPR. In my opinion, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will continue to act as methodically as they did. Now there is a revival in the Zaporizhia direction, in particular in Rabodino, and in the Kharkov direction, where we are pressing the enemy near Kupyansk.
The reaction in the world
The withdrawal of Ukrainian units from Avdiivka, one of the enemy's most fortified areas, comes amid contradictions that have escalated in the West over further military assistance to Ukraine. More and more politicians, as well as citizens of the United States and European countries in general, are beginning to doubt Kiev's ability to defeat Russia on the battlefield. Suffice it to recall the recent statement by American journalist Tucker Carlson, who, after an interview with Vladimir Putin, said that the Ukrainian military would not be able to oust the Russian army.
For Bankova, the retreat from a key stronghold in Donbass only further convinces Western partners of the inexpediency of their expenses, Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.
–– Logically speaking, why should the West invest in the side that is losing? Investments are not justified. On the other hand, any assistance for Ukraine is, from the point of view of the West, investments designed to weaken Russia and reduce its potential," he believes.
According to him, the assistance will be limited in the future.
–– I doubt that the assistance will be large-scale and comprehensive. Even now, for example, it would be possible to question the supply of F-16 fighters. In addition, the main Western equipment, like the American and British Abrams and Challenger tanks, is not involved on the contact line, despite the situation at the front," Bogdan Bezpalko added.
Nevertheless, the West will continue to supply weapons to Kiev: air defense systems, ammunition, long-range artillery and multiple launch rocket systems used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to strike peaceful targets, as is the case, for example, in Belgorod, the expert believes. The reason is that neither Washington nor Brussels are yet ready to admit the complete failure of their policy towards Ukraine and the Russian Federation.
In particular, Denmark has already called on its allies to increase supplies to Ukraine. The Prime Minister of the kingdom, Mette Frederiksen, said that her country had transferred all its artillery to Kiev.
American President Joe Biden, commenting on the situation around Avdiivka, admitted that Ukraine could lose other cities if Congress does not agree on a new aid package. He also called it "absurd" and "unethical" to refuse to support Ukraine when it runs out of ammunition. The United States, due to the position of the Republicans, who demand that the authorities pay more attention to domestic problems (we are talking, first of all, about the fight against illegal migration), has not been able to agree on the allocation of $60 billion in aid for Ukraine since last year.
In a recent telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, however, Joe Biden expressed confidence that Congress would still be able to find a compromise.
At the same time, Zelensky complained on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference about the insufficient amount of Western aid.
"We are very much counting on the positive decision of the Congress, this package is vital for us. We are not considering an alternative today, because we count on the United States as our strategic partner, that they will remain a strategic partner. If we are talking about an alternative, it means that this is not our strategic partner. That's why I'm not considering such an alternative," Zelensky said on February 17.
But the Republican Party itself, apparently, does not intend to change its point of view yet, even after the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Avdiivka.
–– We did not block the aid package for Ukraine because of the Trump [ex-US president] election campaign. Republicans are skeptical about the aid package to Ukraine, because they do not consider it the best choice for the country, - Senator from the "reds" James David Vance told Izvestia.
According to him, the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Avdiivka only indicates that the conflict in Ukraine has dragged on.
–– I believe that we are actually at an impasse in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The contact lines move forward a little, then move back a little. I do not think that Ukraine's retreat will fundamentally change the nature of today's conflict, since we are already at an impasse. It is in everyone's interest to resolve this situation, the American politician believes.
By the way, even businessman Elon Musk agrees with this position. In particular, he commented with the word "true" on a post on the social network X, which says that the conflict in Ukraine has reached an impasse. By the way, a picture with the inscription is also attached to the post: "The day when the United States stops financing Ukraine is the day when military operations will end."
The notable successes of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, in fact, deprive the West of the opportunity to exert pressure on Russia, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma for Defense Yuri Shvytkin told Izvestia. At least, on the scale initially expected in Washington and Brussels.
–– I think Biden is trying to give Zelensky some confidence that he will do everything possible to provide financial assistance to Ukraine. But congressmen understand that allocating money to Ukraine means throwing it into an ice hole, because they all end up going into the pockets of Ukrainian officials," Yuriy Shvytkin believes.
Of course, there is growing skepticism in Europe about further financing of Ukraine. Eventually, Russia and Ukraine will need to coexist with each other, Miroslav Radachovsky, a member of the European Parliament from Slovakia, told Izvestia.
–– Half of Europe believes that it is time to end the conflict in Ukraine. It is necessary to talk about the conditions of peace. There is also a desire to defeat Russia, but this, in my opinion, is simply impossible," he said.
The British press called the capture of Avdiivka Moscow's biggest victory after the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. The difference in size and capabilities between the parties to the conflict is becoming more and more obvious, writes BBC correspondent James Waterhouse. According to him, "four months of attacks have led to the fact that the Ukrainian troops were outnumbered and their ammunition was depleted," he added.
— The loss of Avdiivka, of course, is difficult especially for states that have supplied a large number of weapons. However, it was probably clear to most people that Ukraine would not win. In any case, for some Western states, the main motivation was not the victory of Ukraine, but rather a long struggle designed to weaken Russia militarily and isolate it internationally," Bundestag deputy Jan Nolte told Izvestia.
Rob Lee, a senior researcher at the analytical center at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia, admitted that the loss of Avdiivka would have serious consequences for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. "The main questions now are how expensive the withdrawal of troops will be and what is the quality of the next line of defense," he said. According to him, with the loss of the settlement, the morale of the Russian army is rising.
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| The capture of Avdiivka. |
| Source: .iz.ru |
In addition, the capture of Avdiivka by Russian forces may lead to a further decrease in the level of support for Vladimir Zelensky, ex-deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Spiridon Kilinkarov believes. At the same time, after Valery Zaluzhny's resignation from the post of commander-in-chief, Zelensky's rating immediately fell by 13%, the Kiev International Institute of Sociology reported. "Trust in Vladimir Zelensky is 64% compared to 77% in December last year, while distrust increased from 22% in December to 35% in February," the study says.
At the same time, the defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Avdiivka may cause resentment of the partners of the Kiev regime against the background of Russia's resounding victory, Gunnar Beck, a German MEP, told Izvestia.
— Obviously, this is a setback. However, the West will try to downplay the significance of the Ukrainian defeat and use it as an excuse to allocate additional military and financial assistance to Ukraine," he said.
According to Gunnar Beck, the West is not ready to admit that the Ukrainian army has lost its offensive potential, given the huge supply of weapons. At the same time, Western politicians recognize that, most likely, Ukraine will not be able to regain the initiative, and that the conflict is lost, he added.
— If Donald Trump wins the US elections, the situation for Ukraine will worsen. Without the help of the United States, the EU will not have the determination to continue this war," Beck said.
In addition, the continuation of the conflict plays an important role in justifying the serious economic crisis and the decline in living standards in Europe since the Second World War.
IZVESTIA'S HELP
Izvestia's help
Fortified area since 2014
Back in July 2014, Ukraine took control of Avdiivka, displacing the DPR militia. Thus, the Ukrainian formations have created a springboard for themselves to attack Donetsk. Since 2015, they have started building fortified positions in the city.
Since 2014, armed Ukrainian formations have been shelling residential areas of Donetsk from Avdiivka. Positions in the area of Yasinovataya and Donetsk allowed them to keep the filtration and pumping station under threat. The water supply of millions of people in Donetsk and nearby villages depended on these facilities, both in the DPR and in the territories controlled by Ukraine.
The capture of Avdiivka also gave them the opportunity to take fire control of the Donetsk-Lugansk and Debaltseve-Horlivka highways. From here, the VFU fired at Yasinovataya, a serious railway junction and the intersection of five strategically important highways.
Avdiivka is one of the most fortified outposts of the Ukrainian armed forces. It was created and improved over the course of eight years: trenches, communication passages were dug, long-term firing points were carefully equipped. Bunkers with thick concrete floors were built deep underground, the entrance to which was protected by armored doors.
Izvestia wrote that Avdiivka became a city of special ideological significance for Ukrainian militants, since at one time the Right Sector (an extremist group banned in Russia) received rights and power in it. And the section of the line of contact passing along its outskirts has become a place of constant provocations and violations of the Minsk agreements.
In 2016, the DPR authorities stated that the restoration work on the Avdiivka-Yasinovataya railway section, which had been agreed upon at the meetings of the contact group in Minsk, had been stopped due to constant shelling.
The situation escalated on January 29, 2017 — serious shooting battles with the use of artillery began. At the same time, the area of the Almaz-2 stronghold of the DPR Armed Forces, which was like a ledge between the Butovka mine and the industrial zone, was called a "slaughterhouse" due to frequent shootings and constant losses. As a result of the fierce fighting, the line of contact has not changed dramatically.
Before the start of the conflict, the situation in Donbass began to heat up even more — Kiev ignored the agreements, concentrated most of the army on the line of contact and regularly fired at the militia, including with the use of prohibited equipment. Due to the threat of Ukraine's invasion, the republics began evacuating women, children and the elderly to the Russian regions, and a general mobilization was announced.
Avdiivka during its
During the course of the SVO, Ukrainian formations fired almost daily using heavy artillery and MLRS at Yasinovataya, Donetsk, Gorlovka and other towns and villages of Donbass from Avdiivka, which killed civilians in these settlements. In addition, on March 13, 2022, militants staged a sabotage at the Avdiivka coke plant, which led to a fire at the enterprise, acrid toxic smoke spread to adjacent settlements.
On August 18, 2022, the DPR military took an important height near Avdiivka, which the Ukrainian troops used as an observation post and firing point. On the same day, the aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces defeated a Ukrainian battalion in this direction. But there were no major advances north of Donetsk.
The mayor of the Ukrainian-controlled city of Avdiivka, Vitaly Barabash, did not deny that many locals are waiting for the arrival of the Russian army. According to him, despite the mandatory evacuation announced by Kiev, a significant part of the population of Avdiivka refuses to leave their homes.
In recent months, the Russian army has been actively defending with an improvement in the situation in the Donetsk sector. After the failure of the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian militants, the initiative passed to the Russian troops. On October 10, our servicemen began to actively advance in the area of Avdiivka. In Kiev, they recognized that the situation for the VFU is difficult. On the morning of October 12, Russian troops managed to wedge into the enemy's defenses 300-600 meters from the south. The head of the DPR, Denis Pushilin, said that Russian soldiers were confidently moving forward from two sides in Avdiivka, simultaneously destroying the strongholds of the VFU.
On November 3, Russian troops advanced in the area of the industrial zone, which was an important fortified area of the VFU. Already on November 15, observers of the German edition of Bild recognized the effectiveness of the tactics of the Russian army in the storming of Avdiivka. They stated that the Russian army had advanced to the railway line in the north of Avdiivka, which had previously been the line of contact, thereby making it difficult to supply the Ukrainian military.
On January 5, 2024, the Russian Armed Forces launched an assault on Avdiivka in all directions. At the end of the month, Kirill Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, confirmed that Russian units were successfully advancing in the special operation zone, including near Avdiivka in the DPR.
On February 16, the Ukrainian command reported that Ukrainian troops had withdrawn from their position in the southern part of Avdiivka with losses.
Roman Kretsul, Yulia Leonova, Prokhor Dorenko, Semyon Boikov worked on the material
Izvestia