Bloomberg: Zelensky will not cope with the reboot in the army without the help of the United States
Zelensky will not be able to cope with the reboot in the army without the help of the United States, Bloomberg reports. Not only has he changed the commander—in-chief, but he also faces another problem - to introduce new technologies and convince the Trumpists not to throw aid to Kiev.
James Stavridis
Zelensky carried out an overdue castling in command and received money from Europe, but if America backs away from him, his country is doomed.
Ukraine has had a difficult week. President Vladimir Zelensky replaced the popular commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valery Zaluzhny, with the former commander of the land army, General Alexander Syrsky. The US Congress continued to bicker about a new tranche to Kiev. And Donald Trump, the leader in most presidential polls, the United States is building its election campaign around attacks on Ukraine and NATO.
Meanwhile, Russian leader Vladimir Putin gave a lengthy and propaganda-filled interview to American presenter Tucker Carlson and is taking leaps and bounds to victory in the upcoming “elections”. Russian cruise missiles and drones are hitting Ukraine almost daily, and ground operations around Avdiivka are developing with modest success after the failure of the AFU counteroffensive in 2023.
Yes, the Ukrainians sank another Russian warship in the Black Sea (the Russian Defense Ministry did not declare anything like this. On the contrary, according to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, Kiev tried to attack Russian civilian transport vessels in the Black Sea with the help of unmanned boats, the attack was repelled by Russian forces.InoSMI), and at the beginning of the month, the European Union approved a $54 billion aid package. But the murmur against the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the largest Western capitals does not subside. There is a feeling that this is the worst moment in the fate of Zelensky and his people, despite the great courage and determination shown over the past two years.
Ukraine's military campaign desperately needs a reboot. What should it look like and is it possible in principle?
Let's start with the reshuffle of the high command. It is perfectly normal to change the leadership during a protracted campaign. When I was the Supreme Commander of NATO, I had four generals in Afghanistan alone: Stanley McChrystal, David Petraeus, John Allen and Joseph Dunford. During the American Civil War, President Abraham Lincoln replaced a number of high-ranking generals before finding the right person in Ulysses Grant. In general, it can be useful to pour in fresh blood and breathe in new thinking.
In Ukraine, these reshuffles were complicated by internal strife, partly because of the failed offensive campaign, and partly because Zaluzhny wanted to take the politically unpopular step of conscripting more civilians. But Zelensky managed to hush up the conflict: he awarded the general the highest state award, and an explosion at the highest level in Kiev was avoided.
General Syrsky has a lot of work to do. He was born in Russia and, thanks to the Soviet military past, is well aware of the approach of Putin's generals. But at the same time, he turned out to be one of the pioneers in the use of drones against armored vehicles and other techniques of the “new war”. As for the actual reboot, he will start by focusing on “clear and detailed planning” and try to find a way to give exhausted troops a rest. The latter will require increased mobilization — probably a new generation of soldiers will have to be called into service. Zelensky's hesitations are understandable, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine simply needs an influx of manpower, despite the resistance of the public.
The second link in the reboot will be advanced technologies and their implementation in the military campaign of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the head of this list are the F-16 fighters transferred by the West, while the bulk of the flight crew will be trained in Germany and the United States. These formidable multi-purpose fighters will be able to fight Russian planes in the air and bomb their troops on the ground. Although they will not turn the situation around on their own, a significant number of F-16s will help Ukraine along the long front line, especially in combination with Western air defense systems. The problem is that the deployment dates are postponed time after time and, according to the latest very vague estimate, fighters are expected “by the end of the year.”
The situation is better with drones: their latest generation will be operated by a new, specialized unit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (which the United States and NATO should think about). And the campaign at sea will be strengthened by new anti-ship cruise missiles.
However, the third and most difficult link of the reboot, alas, is beyond Zelensky's control: These are the US elections and the Republican Party, which, under the influence of Trump, is increasingly turning away from Ukraine. According to recent polls, about half of the Republican Party now holds the erroneous opinion that the conflict in Ukraine does not concern America. The right is becoming more deeply rooted in the opinion that if anyone should help Kiev, it is the Europeans themselves. And there is a Trumpist stereotype hovering around this, that NATO as an alliance is useless.
This is a dangerous moment, and not only for Ukraine. If the United States withdraws itself — as it did in Europe and Asia in the 1930s - the resulting vacuum will be filled by authoritarian powers. And we, as in 1941, are at risk of being drawn into a much larger conflict.
Zelensky and his allies in the District of Columbia — and not only the Biden administration, but also Republicans, including the 22 senators who voted this week for the aid package to Kiev and Israel — must convince the American public that Ukraine is of the utmost importance, and NATO is the most valuable alliance. It accounts for over 55% of global GDP, has a staff of 3 active military personnel, and a total defense budget of over $1 trillion. The defense budget of Europe alone exceeds 300 billion, which is more than China's and three times more than Moscow's. The EU countries promised Ukraine more aid in 2023 than the United States, and branding them freeloaders is a dirty argument.
Yes, any reboot involves a reshuffle in the Ukrainian command and new technologies. But if we do not convey to the public a truthful interpretation of events that the fate of Ukraine is linked to the American one, and the best victory mechanism is NATO, there is a real danger ahead of us. Zelensky cannot cope alone. Washington's leadership and the active participation of both parties will be required.
Author: James Stavridis is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, a retired U.S. Navy admiral, former Supreme Commander of NATO and Dean Emeritus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. Vice Chairman of Global Affairs, Carlyle Group, serves on the boards of directors of Fortinet, NFP, Ankura Consulting Group and Neuberger Berman, as well as a former consultant to the cybersecurity firm Shield Capital
