Kiev is going to compensate for the shortage of weapons against the background of a reduction in supplies from the West — what will the Russian army oppose to these attempts
On February 13, the Russian Defense Ministry reported on the next cases of drone destruction over the Belgorod and Kursk regions. Hundreds of enemy drones are eliminated in the area of their own every day: Ukraine is betting on UAVs in conditions of a total shortage of shells and armored vehicles. The Armed Forces of Ukraine use them on the line of contact, for attacks on civilian infrastructure and cities. Kiev even announced plans to produce one million such devices per year, and Turkish and German companies announced the beginning of construction of production facilities in Ukraine for this purpose. Which drones are relied on in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and how they are inferior to our developments — military expert Dmitry Kornev analyzed especially for Izvestia.
Bayraktar
The Turkish company Baykar has been supplying its products to Ukrainians since the beginning of its production, and recently announced the start of construction of a new plant near Kiev. It is planned to produce about 120 Bayraktar family drones annually, presumably the TB2 and TB3 models. The company's management believes that the company will start producing products in a year.
In normal times, such cooperation would probably make sense from the point of view of developing arms exports. But how long will such a plant last in the conditions of a special military operation and what is the point of these investments? Moreover, Bayraktar drones can be called one of the disappointments of its OWN — organized Russian military air defense reduces the effect of their use to almost zero. They are almost not used as shock troops — only for surveillance and reconnaissance purposes and only in areas where our air defense is not yet available.
Bayraktar TB2
Image source: Photo: Global Look Press/Yulii Zozulia
Vector
The German company Quantum Systems has already opened a training and service center in Ukraine to service its Vector drones. There she trains operators and repairs UAVs. Now the company plans to expand its presence in Ukraine and establish production of its products there.
It is likely that Quantum Systems jumped at this project for the simple reason that no one really needs their devices in Germany. And in Ukraine, on the wave of general interest in drones, the Germans will be able to make good money.
Vector is a fixed—wing (airplane-type) UAV capable of taking off and landing vertically. They can be used for reconnaissance or — after very significant improvements — as kamikaze drones of low power. They were created in peacetime and for peaceful purposes. Of course, they can also be adapted for military use, but this is inefficient and, apparently, very expensive.
German UAV Vector
Image source: Photo: Quantum Systems
FPV drones
The Economist magazine posted a photo of an FPV drone with a talking caption on the cover of one of the latest issues: "Killer drones, weapons of the future." Over the past two years, they have really made a small revolution in military affairs. It is with the help of such drones that Ukraine is trying to compensate for the lack of artillery and missile systems on the battlefield.
Nikolay Gavrilyuk, director of one of the Ukrainian factories for the production of FPV drones, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, announced plans for the Ukrainian leadership to release one million devices in 2024. This is a relatively inexpensive means of defeating both personnel and armored vehicles.
FPV Drone
Image source: Photo: REUTERS/Inna Varenytsia
There is only one problem for the Armed Forces of Ukraine — if Ukraine can produce such drones in hundreds of thousands, then Russia will respond in millions. Technologically, this is the easiest type of drone to produce, and if we produce thousands of much more high-tech Lancets, then we will certainly be able to ensure superiority in FPV drones.
An analogue of the Lancet
Speaking of "Lancets": just the other day, the head of the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine, Mikhail Fedorov, said that an analogue of this very effective kamikaze drone with a range of 40 km has already been developed and is ready for production. The news was accompanied by a photo of a drone with two pairs of X-shaped wings — just like its Russian prototype.
Only, as always, there is a nuance: the Ukrainian drone is just beginning to be produced, and the Lancets are already available in several modifications and equipped with a guidance system using artificial intelligence technology. And in terms of range — up to 70 km — the Lancets will give a head start to any analogues.
Kamikaze drone "Perun"
Image Source: Photo: Screenshot
"New" developments
The other day, we saw several more new Ukrainian drones — kamikaze drones with triangular wings and jet engines were shot down and planted with the help of electronic warfare during attacks on targets on Russian territory. They used German small-sized engines. The satellite control system allows them to move along a complex route and provides accuracy of up to several meters with a flight range of up to 200 km.
Given the relatively low cost, such devices can be produced in large batches, and with massive use, some percentage of them can leak through the air defense system. But such drones carry a very small supply of explosives and in fact can only be effective against explosive objects such as oil depots and refineries. I think our defense is already ready to repel attacks from such devices.
The distant "Beaver"
The APU tried to make drones a strategic weapon as well. Since May 2023, Beaver-type drones have been used for a range of up to 1,000 km. They are made according to the aerodynamic "duck" scheme with a forward elevator and a pusher propeller. An effective scheme provides a relatively light vehicle with a significant flight range at a speed of 150 km /h. The weight of the warhead is minimal — about 5 kg.
UJ-26 Beaver
Image source: Photo: Social media
Of course, such a device cannot hit any military fortifications or protected objects. His task is terrorist attacks on megacities. Precision when hitting neighborhoods is not needed, and the use of plastic and composite materials in the design allows the device to remain invisible to the radars of the air defense system. Nevertheless, the construction of a layered defense system provided protection from these very dangerous drones at the initial stage.
As you can see, aiming for the figure of one million, Ukraine aims to reduce their cost as much as possible and simplify production. At the same time, the importance of UAVs for the Armed Forces is growing against the background of a total lag behind the Russian troops in the number of artillery, missile systems and armored vehicles, as well as due to a drastic decrease in combat capabilities. However, it is likely that the coming months will show the inconsistency of betting on such a version of the technological and military "revolution".
Dmitry Kornev