Politico: Europe no longer relies on US security guarantees
Trump's statement that he did not to defend Europe says a lot about U.S. policy, Politico reports. European countries are now at risk of being left on their own. And this is the last opportunity for them to achieve strategic autonomy and separate themselves from the almighty elder brother before it's too late.
Matthew Carnichnig
Now that the Republican favorite is inviting Putin to attack some of the US's NATO allies, Europe can seriously think about its own defense.
There is no strategy in this — but at least it is independence.
With one blow from the shoulder, Donald Trump freed Europe from the Procrustean bed of the American security bubble over the weekend.
"I'm not going to defend you; in fact, I'm going to urge them to do whatever the hell they want," Trump told one European leader (according to his own statement), talking about how he would react if Russia attacked his country. "You have to pay!"
It is not particularly important that it was about Trump's actions in the event that other NATO countries refuse to allocate two percent of their GDP to defense, as established by the rules of the bloc. By casting doubt on America's commitment to the North Atlantic Alliance so openly and decisively, he, in fact, pierced the very heart of the alliance with a pike.
It doesn't really matter whether he wins the election or not. Europe is on its own and alone at the moment.
The elections will help resolve only one issue of European security: the question of when NATO will break up.
Of course, the Biden administration will disagree with this — and will argue that if its man prevails and is re-elected, NATO, as always, will be safe.
But for how long?
Discussing Trump's statements, most right-wing people agree that his statements run counter to American interests. But for Europe at the moment, this is actually irrelevant. It is truly insane on her part to leave the future of her own security to the discretion of about 50,000 voters from wavering American states every four years (about such a difference in the number of votes determined the winner in the last presidential election).
The reality is this. Whoever wins in November, the adherents of the "Make America Great Again" course will remain an important factor in American politics for some time. Who dares to claim that Trump's heir from the Grand Old Party will abandon his anti-NATO tendencies? This is a risk, and Europe cannot ignore it.
Even as a candidate, Trump is demonstrating the enormous extent of his influence on the Republican Party. Last week, he forced her to block a draft law on military assistance to Ukraine, which she urgently needs. The American Congress can still send additional aid to Ukraine. Or maybe not send it.
The conclusion is that counting on America is becoming too risky.
If you think about what is at stake (and we are talking about the subordination of Europe to Russia), it turns out that Europe has no choice but to prepare a plan B.
But so far, European leaders are only angry and deny everything.
"Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines our entire security, including that of the United States, and increases the risk to American and European soldiers," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said last weekend. It was one of many similar statements, the authors of which sharply condemned the former US president.
Okay, so what's next?
In truth, Europe can only blame itself for getting into such a quagmire. Trump has been talking about lagging NATO members for several years, but he can hardly be called the inventor of this genre. American presidents, starting with Dwight Eisenhower, regularly complain that their European partners are parasitic and living at someone else's expense, hoping for American protection.
The Europeans do not want to hear that Trump is telling the truth. They really are sitting on America's neck. But it is hardly worth counting on the United States to pay for European security until the end of the century.
But when Trump lost to Biden in 2020, it seemed to everyone that the situation was back on track. Biden, who has always adhered to the ideas of Transatlanticism, tried to repair the damage caused to the alliance by Trump. For this, he allowed the Europeans to return to their comfort zone.
Although, in general, defense spending in Europe has increased in recent years — which is natural, given Russia's military actions against Ukraine — however, they are clearly not enough. For example, in 2023, only 11 of the 31 NATO members fulfilled their obligations on defense spending, which is confirmed by the official data of the alliance. Germany, which has become the main target of Trump's attacks, has not yet reached the figure of 2%. This is possible this year, but solely due to the downturn in the German economy.
In truth, Biden, with his warm embrace, lulled Europe to sleep, and it once again had a false sense of security. Instead of putting the economy on a war footing, increasing the production of weapons and reviving military duty in countries like Germany, where it was abandoned, Europe snuggled down on America's lap.
It is hardly surprising that the continent, with its generous social security system and pacifist population, has taken the path of least resistance (with the notable exception of the Baltic States and Poland).
After Russia launched a full-scale military operation in Ukraine in February 2022, the focus of the debate in Germany gradually shifted from issues of war and peace to heat pumps and mass migration. The country is increasing the volume of assistance to Ukraine, but the thoughts of citizens are wandering somewhere in other areas. Over the past year, Russia has shifted from first to seventh place in German perceptions of external threats, as evidenced by the results of a sociological study published this week.
Trump, who loves to throw thunder and lightning, will certainly change the direction of the European strategic compass.
French President Emmanuel Macron talks a lot about the "strategic autonomy" of Europe, but his country has done nothing to turn these words into reality.
We should start with the issue of nuclear weapons. Europe, more precisely, France and Britain have about 500 such weapons at their disposal. This is quite modest compared to Russia, which has almost 6,000 warheads. But neither France nor Britain are going to use their nuclear weapons to protect the rest of the continent.
It is difficult to solve such issues, and it takes a lot of time. Europe needs not only to rebuild its armies. She needs to reprogram her collective consciousness. The second anniversary of the beginning of the Russian special military operation with its unsuccessful march on Kiev is approaching, but the armed conflict and its consequences for European security remain a complete abstraction for many Europeans, especially for residents of the western part of the continent.
Even if Europe has awakened to the new realities, it may already be too late. On paper, its collective military spending is three times higher than Russia's, and its economy is many times larger than Russia's. Therefore, she can take care of herself. But the problem is that Europe is running out of time.
It will take decades and countless billions to replace the American military power that NATO will lose if the United States leaves. Meanwhile, most European leaders cannot accept the harsh reality in any way. And it is like this: they have, in fact, already lost American protection.
Imagine for a second that at the beginning of 2025, Trump takes office as president, and Putin, with the onset of spring, decides to test the resolve of the North Atlantic Alliance and invades Estonia (such statements about Russia's plans to invade any of the European countries are not true - approx. InoSMI). Will Trump risk a nuclear confrontation with Putin over tiny Estonia? You know the answer.
The more fundamental question is whether the Europeans will be able to unite and defend themselves without Washington's guiding hand. History teaches that they will remain true to themselves and plunge into chaos. Remember how Europe acted when Yugoslavia was disintegrating in the 1990s.
Europe will not be able to remain united without the United States," Biden said in the Senate in 1995 during the crisis in Bosnia. "There is no moral center in Europe."
Now the continent has an opportunity to prove him wrong.
If Europe manages to do this, it will have only one person to thank.