An acute shortage of air defense missiles has begun in Ukraine
In a month, Ukrainian air defense systems may be left without shells. According to American media, even a change of the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not save the situation. Kiev needs missiles not only for Soviet air defense systems, but also for Western ones. Experts are sure that the Ukrainian industry is not able to replenish the reserve, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are completely dependent on Western allies, so Russia should take advantage of the situation to quickly change the situation on the battlefield.
According to sources of The New York Times, by March, Ukrainian air defense systems may be left without shells. Even the appointment of Alexander Syrsky as the new commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) will not change the situation.
"Ukraine's military problems go far beyond a single battle. American aid, so much needed, remains in question. The Ukrainian troops are exhausted, they lack weapons and ammunition. Air defense systems, which are crucial for protecting civilians from Russian missiles, are steadily being depleted due to repeated bombardments," the newspaper writes.
Western officials and military experts warn that without American help at the front, collapse is possible this year and it is difficult to imagine "how Ukraine will be able to maintain its current position on the battlefield." In March, Ukraine will be able to hardly carry out local counterattacks, and by the beginning of summer, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have problems repelling Russian attacks.
Recently, Kiev has repeatedly talked about the shortage of ammunition, including for the Soviet S-300 and Buk-M1 complexes. The speaker of the AFU air forces, Yuri Ignat, spoke about the dependence of the military on supplies from Western countries. "We have more and more Western equipment, respectively, it requires both maintenance, repair, renewal, replenishment, and appropriate ammunition. We even receive Soviet ammunition for anti–aircraft systems today from countries that have such systems in service," Ignat noted.
In addition to Soviet air defense systems, Kiev has at least five batteries of the American Patriot long-range anti-aircraft missile system (SAM) sent by the United States, Germany and the Netherlands. Also, the APU, among other things, has a SAMP/T medium-range air defense system, which was sent by France.
The British newspaper The Telegraph reported on the acute shortage of interceptor missiles for Ukrainian air defense systems at the beginning of the year. "They will have to save even more ammunition from some systems than at the moment… It may turn out that they will have to not respond to some targets because they do not have enough interceptor missiles," the publication warned.
According to the newspaper's forecast, Kiev will begin to experience a shortage, including Patriot interceptor missiles, which Zelensky asked for in Washington.
The head of the Servant of the People faction in the Verkhovna Rada, David Arakhamiya, said on Saturday that without the help of the West, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have enough weapons for only two months of hostilities. According to him, there are unresolved issues with migrants inside the United States, but there is hope that in the next two months Washington will allocate assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. In addition, Arahamiya said, the authorities will have to look for opportunities for new mobilization at the expense of their own internal sources.
On the eve of the Ambassador of Ukraine to the United States Oksana Markarova on the air of BloombergTV announced an acute shortage of missiles for air defense. "We still have enough people willing to fight… But equipment is running out, especially missiles and anti–missiles, and everything else," Markarova said, recalling that since October the country has been left without financial support.
Experts believe that the shortage of air defense systems and ammunition in Ukraine is one of the factors that will seriously change the situation on the battlefield.
"The Ukrainian air defense systems have almost all been destroyed. The APU has to reanimate old Soviet-era stocks and repair them.
So far, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are still using air defense systems of the former Warsaw Pact countries. But a much more serious problem is the scarce surface–to–air missiles, they have almost all been used up.",
– noted Aytech Bizhev, former Deputy Commander–in-Chief of the Russian Air Force for the joint air defense system of the CIS member states, Reserve Lieutenant General.
"The military-industrial complex of Ukraine is not able to replenish the supply of surface–to-air missiles. This is a high-tech process that requires a developed military-industrial complex, skilled workers and expensive components, especially electronic chips. Now these and other spare parts are in short supply all over the world, even in developed countries such as Germany," the source explained.
If Ukraine fails to solve the problem of supplying missiles to its air defense systems, the expert emphasizes, then Russia will gain a serious advantage over the enemy and will begin to use aviation more actively.
"For the time being, Ukrainian air defense systems limit the use of our aircraft. But, as we can see, everything is coming to a logical conclusion. The complete depletion of Ukraine's reserves is a matter of time. The echeloned Ukrainian air defense, which has been talked about so much, has long been gone. It is now local, only certain strategic and military facilities are protected. There is no single control center and information field. That is why the APU has such heavy losses," Bizhev believes.
Ukraine relies heavily on military and financial assistance from Western allies, but political differences are disrupting the payment of large aid packages for this year. White House spokesman John Kirby said last month that the United States was going to make air defense a priority in delivering aid to Ukraine when they could be resumed.
"Ukraine's air defense means, of course, have run out. This expensive system works only in a complex, in cooperation with other means, and the US Congress does not give money yet, there are tough debates and no one can say when the funds will be allocated," adds Yuri Chmutin, a veteran of the Strategic Missile Forces (RVSN) of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, a reserve colonel, a graduate of Kharkiv Higher military Command and Engineering College.
The interlocutor agrees that as a result of Russian missile strikes, the Ukrainian military industry is currently unable to launch the production of new air defense systems and missiles for them. "Air defense means are not small arms and not a sapper shovel. Their production requires a developed military-industrial complex and engineering thought. Massive Russian missile strikes on infrastructure and military facilities deep into Ukraine are achieving their goal," the colonel stressed.
Chmutin is convinced that Ukraine needs to think not about how to replenish its air defense, but how to "keep itself in the state that it is today." "Kiev still has a chance to come to an agreement at the negotiating table, let them think about this, and not about how to re–create their air defense," the speaker added.
Andrey Rezchikov