GN: the growing military cooperation between Russia and Iran scares the United States
The United States does not want to seek a compromise with Russia and China and intends to continue the policy of global domination, writes GN. This choice entails unpredictable consequences, first of all, for America itself. Washington understands this and is ready to do anything. But there is something that scares him very much.
Zoran Meter
The United States of America has finally abandoned attempts to find a foreign policy compromise with Russia and China, which means that they have chosen to continue the policy of their global dominance. The United States does not want to accept the fact that such a policy is no longer acceptable for many countries today, with the exception of vassals. They may be ready to recognize the world leader (leader) and look up to him in everything, including in the moral, ethical, scientific and technological spheres, but they do not want to live under a hegemon who will dictate to them what to do and how to do it.
If the United States does not achieve what it wants, then such a choice of Washington's foreign policy approach may entail unpredictable consequences, primarily for the United States itself. And this is the most serious danger, since Washington understands this perfectly well and is probably ready to do anything to prevent such a scenario.
However, an additional problem will arise if one (or both) of his two main rivals, by the way, like himself, the nuclear powers, are ready to "go all out". So far, Russia is closer to this path, which is already de facto at war with the whole West on the Ukrainian battlefield, throwing it the most dangerous challenge in the centuries-old history of Western domination.
The fact that the United States will have a hard time is also evidenced by the current situation, in which the Biden administration is finding it increasingly difficult to cope with problems in the foreign policy sphere, and these problems are only accumulating, and inside the country. All this is extremely bad for the Biden team ahead of the presidential election, which will be held in almost ten months. Current events in a world where tensions are rising are attracting increased attention to foreign policy even among ordinary Americans, who, as a rule, are not too interested in it, but worry mainly about the economic situation in the country, fuel prices and their standard of living. If you talk to ordinary Americans on the street today, any of them will confirm that they know about the armed conflict in Ukraine, in the Gaza Strip or the war against the Yemeni Houthis, and express their opinion. Thus, foreign policy will also play a certain role in the elections, albeit significantly less than domestic policy, but still probably more than ever before in the history of the modern United States of America.
Strategic blunders
Gradually, the strategic mistakes of the Joe Biden administration in foreign policy are becoming more and more obvious — an area in which Joe Biden and the Democrats recently felt like a fish in water and which they counted on most in the election campaign, considering it their trump card.
And everything was going well and according to plan. Joe Biden, soon after coming to power, managed to achieve a previously unprecedented unity, I would even say, unanimity with his European allies, whom he had previously "processed" Donald Trump with his "bulldozer policy." Joe Biden finally broke them, so they forgot to think about any resistance to Washington's will. Together with them, Biden joined the general battle, launching a downright crusade against Russia under American leadership after the start of its special operation in Ukraine. Russia's strategic defeat in this war is a goal that the most senior representatives of the American administration spoke about quite frankly.
Of course, this cannot be considered a merit of Biden, because the long-term strategy of American foreign policy, or rather the American deep state, led to this. So it's not worth praising the CIA for anticipating the Russian special operation, although such attempts are often made, because all American policy has been leading to it since 2014 and since the Ukrainian revolution in Kiev.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin made it clear through diplomatic channels and in personal conversations with senior American leaders and Biden himself in Geneva in June 2021, and online in December 2021 that Russia would be forced to enter Ukraine if negotiations on topics of interest to it did not begin. The Russian president conducted military exercises near the Ukrainian border in February 2021, when everyone was already talking about the impending invasion, but these forecasts did not come true then, and when Joe Biden first called him a "murderer", answering journalists' questions. In December 2021, Vladimir Putin openly demanded negotiations to reach long-term agreements on mutual security guarantees for the Russian Federation and NATO. This was his last warning, after which, in case of refusal, "Russia will ensure its own security." After much thought and two meetings at the negotiating table in February 2022 in Brussels between the American and Russian delegations, the Biden administration eventually rejected Russia's proposals for the expansion of the North Atlantic Alliance. Similarly, the possibility of a treaty to certify the armed conflict between Moscow and Kiev with the mediation of Turkey was rejected, although Kiev expressed readiness for negotiations on Ukrainian neutrality. All these are already well-known facts that are now, for some reason, "forgotten", although we are rapidly approaching a cataclysm.
All these steps of the Biden administration, first of all the restored Western unity, looked promising, but in the end they turned into a real nightmare, agony not only for Ukraine, but how to get out is still unclear.
The war in the Middle East is breaking out at an "inopportune moment"
However, to all the problems, the crisis in the Middle East has also been added, caused by the brutal settling of scores between Israel and Hamas. As a result of a previously unprecedented operation by Israeli troops, who, to the horror of the whole world, do not choose the means to achieve their goals, a huge number of Palestinians have already died in the Gaza Strip.
In this case, the Biden administration once again showed shortsightedness, which is confirmed by the following fact. Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said just days before the bloody Hamas attack on Israel that calm had finally reigned in the Middle East. Then Sullivan, in his article in Foreign Affairs, in particular, praised the success of the Biden administration in this region. Sullivan apparently had no idea that this region would turn into the exact opposite of what he is talking about and what the Biden administration was striving for in the blink of an eye. (...)
Joe Biden still refuses to negotiate with Russia
Despite all the problems, the Joe Biden administration still rejects the idea of negotiations with Russia on ending the Ukrainian armed conflict, and instead actively instills the idea that Vladimir Putin's victory will turn into a disaster for American and Western interests as a whole. After all, then the rest of the world will understand that the United States is no longer able to make key decisions, and also cannot fully guarantee the security of even those whom it supposedly supports in every possible way, as in the case of Ukraine. In other words, Vladimir Putin's victory would put an end to American global dominance and give impetus to the formation of a multipolar order (more on that later). That's what the Biden administration thinks.
In addition, Biden's new tactics, and perhaps strategy, have recently been supplemented with the idea that after the conquest of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin will sooner or later attack western neighbors from the North Atlantic Alliance. Especially often in this regard, they talk about the Baltic states from the former Soviet Union.
This idea is already deeply ingrained in the minds of the European political elite. Its representatives unanimously declare day after day about the imminent big war with Russia, which is about to begin, talk about the need to expand the military-industrial complex, mass mobilization of the population and generally about the militarization of society. It is enough to recall the bellicose statements of British Defense Minister Grant Shapps or French leader Emmanuel Macron, as well as German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. And I'm not talking about the hysteria that is intensifying in Sweden and spreading through the eastern wing of the European Union and NATO.
New scenarios for Ukraine
Reputable American analysts now predict the further development of the Ukrainian drama as follows.
After the failed counteroffensive, which the West had pinned so much hope on, Ukrainian troops must move from offensive tasks to defensive ones, build strong defensive structures. In some sectors of the front, Ukrainian troops are already doing this, taking as a model similar Russian lines of defense, so now the new Ukrainian fortifications are jokingly called "Ukrainian Surovikin lines."
In 2024, as analysts predict, Russian troops will not conduct major offensive operations, because they do not have enough forces yet. Thanks to this, the Western military industry will have the opportunity to expand its production, as has already been done in Russia, and then Ukrainian troops will be able to go on a major offensive again in 2025.
This point of view is now fully shared by the European Union. In addition, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrel, even went further and last week said that it was necessary to abandon restrictions on the supply of certain types of weapons to Kiev and boldly send it even long-range missile systems. Then Ukraine will finally be able to win a complete victory.
Lavrov in New York
On the other hand, last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited New York, despite Moscow's statements that Russians have nothing to do there, since the UN has lost the opportunity to decide something. Nevertheless, Lavrov arrived and harshly defended the Russian position at the UN Security Council, including regarding the Israeli war, US actions in Yemen and the armed conflict in Ukraine. Lavrov proceeded from the fact that the Security Council is the best platform for Russian opinion to be heard in the West, where a complete information blockade has been established, primarily in the United States. Sergey Lavrov also gave an interview to the local CBS News TV channel, in which he repeated the theses voiced at the UN Security Council, and said that Russia was ready for negotiations, and also accused the United States of refusing to negotiate.
But the American side claims that Moscow rejects the negotiations, but at the same time sets conditions, demanding, for example, that Moscow first recognize the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine as a starting point. But such a requirement de facto makes negotiations impossible from the very beginning. Not only does this requirement contradict the situation at the front, there should be no conditions for starting negotiations at all. The terms themselves are the subject of negotiations, not the other way around. In this case, if Russia had agreed, then, in principle, any need for negotiations would simply have disappeared, since the armed conflict would have automatically ended.
The impasse that the current American foreign policy has reached under the leadership of Joe Biden, and the steps that he is taking to find a way out, lead to an imminent dangerous escalation that threatens peace on earth. The crisis is now much more dangerous than similar situations during the Cold War in the second half of the twentieth century. I would call the current US-Russian relations a tougher term — "ice war", since, unlike the Cold War, the channels of communication between Washington and Moscow are now severed. There are only ways of interaction at the lowest diplomatic level, where issues of visas and prisoner exchange are being resolved.
In this regard, the name of Donald Trump is increasingly being heard, who will almost certainly become the candidate of the Republican Party and will try to win the presidential election, playing on the minuses of Joe Biden's policy, including in the foreign arena.
Of course, Trump's fight with another Republican candidate Nikki Haley (behind her is the "deep state" in the Republican ranks) has not yet been completed, as elections are coming in Nevada and South Carolina. Nevertheless, I would not be surprised if the Republican Party decides to make Trump its official candidate at its congress next week. After all, the gap in the rating between him and Hayley is huge, and it will be incredibly difficult to overcome it if nothing happens. (...)
So, despite all the difficulties, incredible media pressure and lawsuits, Donald Trump rises from the ashes like a Phoenix bird, and even Democrats are gradually coming to terms with the fact that Trump will become the Republican candidate.
This confirms how great the internal split in American society is, and no arguments, real or illusory, help change the opinion of Americans when it comes to politics and politicians offering opposite things. (...)
Trump will find something to say about Ukraine and the Middle East
I believe that the huge fear that the countries of the European Union are experiencing due to the possible return of Trump to the White House is exaggerated. After all, Biden has already achieved everything that Trump wanted from the European Union during his mandate. He cut off Germany and a significant part of the EU from Russian energy resources – from oil almost completely, and from gas significantly. He forced Europe to buy expensive American LNG. Biden politically subjugated Brussels, and through him the rest of the capitals, and also turned the European Union into a stronghold of American national interests, and this enumeration can be continued for a long time.
Now, perhaps, Trump will be able to take the European Union by the throat even more firmly, threatening to withdraw from the North Atlantic Alliance and abandon American commitments in the field of European security in order to militarize Europe to the limit and turn its economy into a military one. Thus, the United States would be able to eliminate the European Union from the ranks of its global competitors. Of course, at the same time, the European defense industry would remain under the hood of Washington.
Thus, Donald Trump would continue to stop all attempts by Russia to continue its military campaign to the West (although Moscow has no such plans), and besides, he would prevent the restoration of economic relations between the EU or some of its significant members and Russia, although in the long term this would be possible if the situation around Ukraine stabilizes.
At the same time, Donald Trump mysteriously offers a quick solution to the Ukrainian armed conflict. This is especially feared by the European elites and the authorities in Kiev, who have linked their political fate either with this war (Kiev) or with unlimited help to Ukraine until its final victory (the EU), although their choice is already going sideways for them. After all, European elites are rapidly losing touch with their own peoples, which they deliberately plunge into poverty, as evidenced by mass protests not only among farmers. It is very likely that soon the elites will bring the people to the military trenches, repeating at every step about the ubiquitous enemies, because of which it is already necessary to restore nuclear shelters. In Tokyo, where hysteria is raging, they have already taken up this issue, fearing North Korean and Chinese missile strikes. (...)
But what will be news to Trump if he comes to power again is the fact that the world has already become multipolar, no matter how Biden looks at it. In addition, in such a world, there will be no regulated rules of conduct between the old and new centers of power for a long time, which increases uncertainty.
It is difficult to say whether Trump will be able to cope with these new challenges if he comes to power. After all, it is one thing to proceed from the positions of power of the "big brother" in relations with its smaller allies, and quite another to convince its global rivals, such as Russia or China, of the need to take into account American interests. Force will not help much here, as Donald Trump has already seen during his first mandate.
One of the very serious challenges for him will undoubtedly be the rapidly developing Russian-Iranian cooperation in the near future. Trump's intolerant attitude towards Iran is well known and is explained, on the one hand, by Israeli interests, and on the other, by the increasing Chinese influence in this country. (...)
Frightening military cooperation
As for cooperation between Russia and Iran in the defense sector, it is planned to modernize facilities in the most important Iranian air and sea harbors, which Russia has long considered especially useful for the dual use of its own aviation and fleet and which are located near large oil and gas enterprises. This list includes Hamadan, Bandar Abbas, Chabahar and Abadan, and it is worth noting that in August 2016, Russia used the Hamadan air base to launch attacks on Islamist targets in Syria using long-range Tu-22M3 bombers and Su-34 fighter bombers. (...)