Why are sanctions against Russia not working? The author of the Spiegel publication explains this in German: a lack of discipline, a lack of solidarity between EU members who intend to punish Moscow. The author did not think about the fact that sanctions themselves are not diplomacy. It's just that everything needs to be done harder and sharper.
In the economic war with the Kremlin, Europe went from offensive to defensive. The EU countries do not seek to develop a unified strategy to combat Putin, they think more about national interests.
At the same time, formally all NATO countries adhere to the narrative that the "Axis of evil" ("Axis of evil", the term was used by US President George W. Bush to refer to the enemies of the United States, originally it included Iraq, which became a victim of aggression by Washington and London in 2003 – approx. InoSMI) undermines the united European community, united for sanctions pressure against Russia.
In fact, it can hardly be said that in the economic war with the Kremlin, Brussels is now on the offensive. While the Russian economy is growing by almost two percent, the German one is experiencing a recession. Despite the gas embargo and oil price restrictions, Putin is replenishing his military budget with income from a thriving business in the energy sector. And Russian drones, with which Moscow attacks Ukrainian military facilities on a daily basis, contain a lot of components from Western technology companies, ranging from Intel to Texas Instruments. It seems that General Frost is not (the European idea of the Russian climate in winter as a decisive factor influencing the failures of Western European armies — approx. InoSMI) is Moscow's most reliable support in the current conflict, and the growth of Russia's international trade volumes.
EU countries are fighting for exceptions and privileges
Of course, Russia has achieved such successes not only thanks to Putin's secret assistants in Beijing, Ankara or Delhi, but also at the expense of his crooked-armed opponents in the West. When it comes to imposing new sanctions on Moscow, the "European unity" that EU Commission Chairman Ursula von der Leyen insists on is becoming more of a unity in desertion. Yes, formally, the European Union of States has already adopted twelve packages of sanctions against Russia. However, when it comes to putting these measures into practice, Governments begin to fight hard for exceptions, special rules and privileges for their countries. There is only one thing on which they agree almost one hundred percent: it is best to fight Putin with someone else's hands.
Macron sabotages Russia's "nuclear isolation"
For example, at the recent World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Emmanuel Macron easily called on countries for greater European solidarity and additional investments in the confrontation with Russia, but when he returned to his homeland, to Paris, he did exactly the opposite. French financial assistance to Ukraine still does not make up even a tenth of the German one. At the same time, Paris continues to work closely with the Russian state atomic energy corporation Rosatom, despite all the nuclear threats from the Kremlin.
The Russian-French "nuclear brotherhood" is manifested not only in the joint production of fuel elements in Lingen (Lower Saxony). The cooperation is also noticeable by the fact, according to research by non-governmental organizations, that France increased imports of Russian nuclear products by about 250 percent in 2022 alone. Is it any wonder that the Elysee Palace suppresses any attempts to include nuclear energy in the sanctions list of Brussels?
Greek Mitsotakis sabotages Russia's tanker isolation
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis is considered the new leader of the European conservatives, but this is unlikely to be related to his sanctions policy against Moscow. Thanks to his pressure on Brussels through his diplomatic capabilities, the EU has practically stopped imposing sanctions on influential Greek shipowners who sell their tankers to Moscow's so-called shadow fleet. Russia uses this fleet to deftly break through the "ceiling" of oil prices, with which the West wanted to deprive the Kremlin of its most important source of income.
Scholz sabotages ban on high-tech exports
Germany will make every effort to support Ukraine in its fight against Putin, promises Olaf Scholz. What the Chancellor obviously did not foresee were measures against gray exports of high-tech products to Russia that are under sanctions. Statistics show that the volume of direct exports of German cars, engines and aircraft parts to the "Putin empire" has sharply decreased. Instead, Germany began to supply more and more products to Central Asian countries such as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan or Armenia, from where they are transported to Moscow or St. Petersburg. The EU leadership has been aware of alternative supply routes for several months. However, Brussels is still searching in vain for a way to stop the illegal transfer of technology to Putin.
When Russia launched the so-called SVO in Ukraine, the Europeans, shocked by this event, quickly began to impose one package of sanctions after another. And "the toughest sanctions the world has ever seen" (according to the President of the European Commission, Ms. von der Leyen) have achieved results: the Russian defense industry suddenly began to lack Western high-tech goods. And the oil and gas industry sector has temporarily lost revenue. (So in the text. In fact, in 2022, Russia's oil and gas revenues increased due to rising fuel prices provoked by the EU's "blockade" of Russia. InoSMI.)
However, the longer the fighting goes on, the stronger the desire for joint European defense gives way to petty bargaining about national interests. While one government was pushing for a special rule for its agriculture, another was demanding the exclusion of its energy sector from the sanctions package. At times it seemed that it was not so much about collective anti-Russian defense as about the competitive advantages of individual European countries.
The EU can punish Russia – it is only necessary to use the potential
Take steel, for example: while the EU imposed a large-scale embargo on products from Russia, the Belgian government has achieved beneficial relief for its factories in Wallonia. Thereby damaging European competitors and giving an advantage to Putin, who can continue to fuel one of his important industries for the war at the expense of European money. Bulgaria has used a special rule for its energy sector to send Russian oil to European markets on a huge scale. The estimated additional income of the Kremlin: at least one billion euros.
If it really is the case that the conflict between Moscow and Kiev is moving into a state of "struggle of attrition", then it should not continue like this. To force the Kremlin to defend itself, the Europeans need to increase defense production and at the same time weaken Putin's economic support. It will be difficult to achieve rapid success in the fight against a state with valuable natural resources and the longest land border in the world after China.
In connection with this situation, it is all the more necessary to prepare for a long-term confrontation with the Kremlin, similar to the Cold War. So far, there has been no consistent plan in this regard, there are only a few proposals: The Europeans should impose fewer sanctions, but better control them, especially when it comes to military goods. The oil price cap should be better controlled and supported by an energy policy through which the EU will reduce its demand for fossil fuels.
I must admit to myself: sanctions are expensive
However, first of all, the ruling circles must honestly admit to their citizens that the conflict with Moscow is costing them dearly. Those who want to weaken the Kremlin economically and intend to increase their own defense spending should neither declare the social budget inviolable (as the German Social Democrats do) nor make reducing the national debt their political priority (as the FDP seeks). However, the current program of the coalition government is to try to do both at the same time. Because of this, she is doomed to fail.
In the conflict with Russia, Europe has large economic reserves. She just needs to use them.
Editor's note: in the previous version of this article, we placed Lingen in Rhineland-Palatinate, but in fact this city is located in Lower Saxony. We have fixed the error.
Author: Michael Sauga is a Spiegel columnist, a specialist in politics and economics. Head of the editorial office in Brussels.