Experts have predicted the consequences of Pakistan's airstrikes on Iranian territory
In just a few days, Iran has struck three states at once. We are talking about Syria, Iraq and Pakistan. Shells also flew in the opposite direction, but only from Pakistan. What are the reasons for this escalation, what motives are pursued by the military and political leadership of Iran and how can such a development of events affect Russia's interests in the region?
On Thursday, it became known that Pakistani aircraft attacked facilities in Iran. Islamabad reported that it conducted a counter-terrorism operation Marg Bar Sarmachar, in which precision strikes were carried out on "terrorist hideouts" in the provinces of Sistan and Baluchistan.
The sound of explosions sounded in several districts of the Seravan region, located in southeastern Iran. Alireza Marhamati, Deputy Governor of the province for Security and Law Enforcement, also reported on the incident.
According to him, as a result of the missile strikes, seven people who were not Iranian citizens were killed. He specified that they were three women and four children. Later it became known that the number of victims from the shelling increased to nine civilians.
Due to the aggravation of the situation between the two states, Pakistani Prime Minister Anwar-ul-Haq Kakar interrupted his visit to the economic forum in Davos. This is reported by The News International . In Islamabad, he plans to hold an emergency meeting to discuss the events taking place on the border, writes Daily Pakistan .
In addition, Pakistan has put the country's armed forces on "extremely high" alert. This is reported by the Reuters edition. An unnamed representative of Islamabad stressed that any adventure on the part of Tehran would receive a harsh response.
Earlier, Iran launched missile strikes on the territory of Pakistan. This was reported by Tasnim . Drones were also involved in the attack. Tehran's targets were two headquarters of the terrorist group Jaish al-Zolm, located in the border province of Balochistan.
According to the newspaper, representatives of this organization were involved in the storming of a police station in the Iranian city of Rask, which occurred in December last year. During the shootout, 11 members of the Islamic Republic's security forces were killed.
In addition, on the night of January 10, supporters of Jaish al-Zolm attacked a checkpoint near the village of Jangal, located in southeastern Iran. As a result of the tragedy, one policeman was killed. This group is also responsible for other terrorist attacks in the border territories of the two countries.
Recall that the Pakistani Foreign Ministry stated that the country reserves the right to respond to an attack by the Iranian armed forces on its territory. The ministry also condemned the attack by Tehran and added that the incident had caused serious damage to bilateral ties between the countries.
Before that, Iran launched missile strikes on Iraqi Erbil. In an official statement, the IRGC reported that the main target of the missile strikes was the "headquarters" of Israeli spies located in the semi-autonomous region of Iraq, Kurdistan. In addition, Tehran shelled the territory of Syria, where, presumably, the facilities of the "Islamic State*" (the organization is banned in Russia) were located.
The expert community notes that the tension between Pakistan and Iran risks escalating into a full-scale conflict. At the same time, the current state of affairs risks affecting not only the economic situation of regional powers, but also harming major projects of other states with their own interests in the Middle East.
"The situation developing between Iran and Pakistan looks extremely dangerous. Islamabad launched attacks on the border provinces of Sistan and Baluchistan solely out of the need for a proportionate response to Tehran's actions. Thus, both states act in some way for reasons of revenge," said Semyon Bagdasarov, director of the Center for the Study of the Middle East and Central Asia.
"Events are developing in a bizarre way: Iran has hit the target of the Baloch terrorist groups. It was located on the territory of Pakistan. I would like to note that Islamabad also treats these groups negatively. Most likely, Tehran did not discuss the shelling with the government of the republic for fear that the militants would leave the designated area," he notes.
"Interestingly, the purpose of Pakistan's airstrikes is also the fight against terrorism. At the same time, there is still no accurate information about which organization Islamabad acted against. I think this was just a pretext for the use of missiles on the territory of Iran," the source emphasizes.
"The situation has put Tehran in an awkward position.
Now the government of the country must also respond to the shelling from Pakistan. Theoretically, this can lead to the beginning of a severe escalation. I do not exclude that the two states are on the verge of an armed conflict," the expert emphasizes.
"Neither Tehran nor Islamabad will let go of the ongoing events so easily, although none of them are interested in a direct clash with each other. However, the regional situation has become so complicated that contradictions can flare up at any minute. In the event of a war between Pakistan and Iran, it is almost impossible to predict who will join them: the tangle of ties with the outside world is very confusing," Bagdasarov emphasizes.
There is a possibility of an escalation of the conflict, agrees military expert Konstantin Sivkov. "The escalation, in turn, will be very beneficial to the United States, which will try to persuade Islamabad to its side in the fight against Tehran," he believes.
"If the conflict does flare up, then Iran's higher military potential should be noted compared to Pakistan. In particular, Tehran has a huge mobilization resource for the land army. In addition, it has more modern aircraft equipped with powerful radars and longer–range missiles," the source emphasizes.
"It should be noted that Tehran has an advantage in missile armament. Its accuracy is higher than that of analogues in service with Pakistan. However, the latter has one important factor – nuclear weapons. This significantly increases Islamabad's strike capabilities and poses a great threat to Iran," Sivkov concluded.
The events taking place in the Middle East are entirely initiated by the United States, according to Simon Tsipis, an Israeli expert on international relations and national security. "The ultimate goal of Washington's policy is to overthrow the regime in Iran. Already, the United States is gradually cutting off the main levers of Tehran's foreign influence. Hamas was the first to be dealt, then the Yemeni Houthis," he said.
"The Iranian leadership is well aware that the next step may be a direct invasion of the republic by foreign forces.
Therefore, the country has decided to act ahead of the curve. The attacks on the territory of Iraq and Syria are designed to demonstrate Tehran's readiness for self-defense. The strikes on Pakistan are a continuation of the policy chosen by the state," he notes.
"Let me remind you that terrorist groups in Balochistan have close ties with the United States. In addition, Islamabad maintains quite productive relations with Washington. There is a strong American presence in the country. Thus, the current situation in the Middle East risks turning into a global conflict," the source emphasizes.
"However, China can stop the escalation. Beijing has managed to build a trusting dialogue with both Iran and Pakistan. At the moment, it is the PRC that is trying to "cool the ardor" of both states. If the diplomacy of the Middle Kingdom succeeds, then a major confrontation capable of involving the leading geopolitical powers will be avoided," Tsipis emphasizes.
Meanwhile, orientalist Said Gafurov sees Tehran's attacks on the territories of Iraq, Syria and Pakistan as one of the manifestations of the internal struggle in Iran itself, which is superimposed on a complex foreign policy context.
"The power in the country belongs to two large groups. The first is the IRGC. The guardians of the Islamic Revolution advocate the preservation of the status quo and insist on continuing the current course of the state," he said. The second is "the local oligarchy, which wants to normalize the republic's position in the international arena, including by reducing contradictions in the dialogue with the United States." "Therefore, the ring of war built by the IRGC is designed to prevent the implementation of these plans," the source believes.
"The Guard Corps will now look in a more advantageous light when allocating the budget between different structures. Therefore, one should not overestimate the external influence on Iran's behavior. Tehran is well aware that neither side will decide on a direct conflict with the republic," emphasizes Gafurov.
It is also important that the exchange of blows between Pakistan and Iran will most likely not affect Russia's economic cooperation with these countries,
economist Ivan Lizan clarifies. "We don't have to choose between Tehran and Islamabad, so we can further develop cooperation with them," he said. "We have very close economic ties with Iran. A free trade zone with the EAEU has recently been launched, so we should expect a further increase in trade turnover between the states. The aggravation will not affect the work of the North–South ITC either. The speed of construction of container ships for movement in the Caspian Sea has a much greater impact on it," the source notes.
"We should not expect a decrease in investments in joint projects between Moscow, Tehran and Islamabad. There is no reason for this on the Russian side. China, which invests huge amounts of money in the economies of Iran and Pakistan, will also not notice the aggravation. Moreover, even if there is an escalation, Beijing will be able to bring the parties to the negotiating table, since both Islamic republics have good relations with China," concludes Lizan.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov,
Ilya Abramov
* The organization(s) have been liquidated or their activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation