Is China's military aviation capable of resisting the US Air Force
In the new conditions of the international situation, air supremacy is becoming increasingly important. The political and military leadership of the leading foreign countries in scientific and technical terms pays close attention to the development of the national air Force, which in many countries is the most advanced component of the armed forces. At the same time, two countries – the United States and China - have achieved the most significant results in the development of the Air Force (both qualitatively and quantitatively) in recent decades.
In the military conflicts of the XXI century, the aviation equipment of the US and Chinese Air Forces did not take part in air battles against each other. This circumstance makes it problematic to compare the real combat capabilities of the aircraft of the two countries. Most comparative expert assessments of American and Chinese military aviation are subjective in nature and are based mainly on the study of the declared tactical and technical characteristics.
At the same time, tasks, goals, plans for the development of the air forces of the two countries, as well as possible military conflicts in which the aircraft of the two countries may meet in battle, remain beyond the estimates.
AMERICA'S MILITARY WINGS
An analysis of the composition of the US Air Force fleet, according to the annual bulletin with a review of the military capabilities of the world's states, The Military Balance 2023, shows that at the beginning of this year, the number of the US Air Force was 328,600 people on active duty. In addition, 117,497 people were in the reserve, and 106,700 people were in the US Air National Guard.
There were 4,093 manned aircraft in service (as well as 1,289 in the Air Force of the National Guard and 396 in reserve), 156 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), 2,130 air-launched cruise missiles (CRBMS), 450 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
A study of the official website of the US Department of Defense shows that the unpredictable military and political situation forces the US leadership to continuously improve the national air force. In particular, the US Air Force has the largest fleet of strategic bomber aircraft in the world. According to The Military Balance for 2023, the US Air Force is armed with B-52H, B-2A and B-1B bombers. At the same time, according to experts, the B-1B aircraft are reoriented to perform non-nuclear tasks.
The fleet of strategic American bombers allows you to operate beyond the reach of enemy air defenses. Today, only B-2A bombers have sufficient range and are able to penetrate areas protected by modern air defense and missile defense systems with impunity. But the fleet of such aircraft is not enough to defeat all targets in the Asia-Pacific theater of operations, which the US military and political leadership considers a priority in the 21st century.
At the same time, not all indicators of this component of the US Armed Forces indicate unequivocal American superiority in the air. So, in 2024, it is planned to write off at least 310 aircraft (150 were on the list for 2023), but the US Congress does not fully approve these plans. In particular, the Americans want to get rid of 42 A-10 Thunderbolt II attack aircraft, whose survivability on the modern battlefield is questionable. 260 fighter jets are also expected to be decommissioned by 2028. There are 57 F-15C/D Eagle aircraft under the age of 40 on this list. They are planned to be partially replaced by the F-35A and F-15EX after complete decommissioning by 2026.
Even the F-15E can be written off. Their reduction is expected in 2025. Some F-22As will also be decommissioned, namely 32 Block 20 units decommissioned and used exclusively for training purposes.
Further reductions will affect the E-3G long-range radar detection (AWACS) aircraft, of which 13 have been decommissioned at the moment. It is planned to get rid of the last 24 KC-10 Extender tanker aircraft. The last three E-8 Joint STARS combat control and targeting aircraft, 48 MQ-9 Reaper Block 1 modular reconnaissance and strike drones, three EC-130J Commando Solo "psychological warfare aircraft" and three A-29 light bombers that are almost museum-like are also considered superfluous.
In terms of helicopters, the US Air Force intends to abandon 37 HH-60G Pave Hawk vehicles, which will be gradually replaced by the HH-60W Jolly Green II. 52 T-1 Jayhawk aircraft (Beechjet business jets) are also subject to reduction. Finally, it was decided not to repair one B-1B after an engine fire, as a result of which 44 such bombers remain in the fleet.
PLA AIR ARMADAS
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the PLA aircraft fleet ranks third in the world in terms of quantitative composition for 2023. As for the qualitative composition, the percentage of aircraft of previous generations and foreign production is still quite high here.
The PLA bomber aviation is 100% equipped with more than once modernized, but obsolete Hun-6 aircraft. In tactical aviation, up to 70% is accounted for by aircraft such as "Jian-7", "Jian-8", "Jianghong-7" and "Qiang-5" (they are gradually being withdrawn from the Air Force). At the same time, China is experiencing a shortage of heavy transport aircraft, patrol aircraft and tanker aircraft.
Since the early 2000s, a systematic qualitative improvement of the PLA fleet has been underway. It became possible not only due to the purchase of foreign aircraft and the deployment of licensed production at national enterprises, but also the creation on their basis (and in many cases copying) of their own aircraft samples. Chinese engineers strive to obtain the most advanced technologies from leading (especially in terms of engine building and avionics development) states in order to master them and create the latest competitive models of national aircraft.
The re-equipment of the aviation fleet is also linked to the reform of the Chinese Armed Forces, which is divided into three stages: 2000-2020, 2021-2035 and 2036-2049. At the first stage, the number of personnel and outdated equipment were reduced, work was intensified to modernize existing and develop new models of weapons and military equipment (IWT). The objectives of the second and third stages are to reach the level of the leading countries of the world.
According to the British publication Jane's Information Group, the military and political leadership of the People's Republic of China not only retains the combat capabilities of old aircraft, but also initiates the development of new models – for example, strategic bombers. The modification of the Hun-6 bomber has the designation "Hun-6K" and significant differences from previous versions. A long-range fire detection and control radar is installed in the nose (in front of the cockpit). The Khun-6K uses Russian turbofan engines D-30KP-2 with a capacity of 12 thousand kgf/cm2, which have changed the shape and dimensions of the air intakes.
A study of the SIPRI databases suggests that currently the designers of the Xi'an Aircraft Manufacturing Enterprise are developing the first strategic supersonic stealth bomber under the designation "Hong-20" (the number 20 indicates a maximum speed of MACh 2.0).
COMPARISON OF POTENTIALS
According to the SIPRI Institute, today the US Air Force is much more powerful than the Chinese Air Force already due to the tactical and technical characteristics of the aircraft used. The British resource FlightGlobal published a report according to which the United States retains an advantage by having more than 13 thousand military aircraft, 5,163 of which are operated by the US Air Force. The American F-35 Lightning and F-22 Raptor fighters are considered to be among the most advanced combat aircraft in the world.
The Chinese Air Force is the third largest in the world with more than 2,500 aircraft, of which about 2,000 are combat aircraft (according to the 2022 Report on China's Military Might). Thus, the obvious strategic superiority in the air is on the side of the United States. Although China is rapidly increasing its power and stubbornly creating promising models of weapons.
The Pentagon and the American aviation industry have so far demonstrated clear superiority in terms of aircraft of the latest generations. According to open sources, the United States in 2017 produced 50 multi-purpose aircraft of the 5th generation F-35 and 26 aircraft of the 4th generation F-18. In 2018, 70 F-35s and about 14 F-18s were built in the United States. On average, the United States produces 75 to 85 jet fighters per year.
In addition, other military aircraft for various purposes were produced in the United States during these years. These include 15 KC-46A tanker aircraft, five E-2D Advanced Hawkeye AWACS aircraft, 24 P8A reconnaissance and jamming aircraft, and 28 C-130J transport aircraft. In total, the United States produces approximately 130 manned aircraft annually, not counting helicopters.
Analysts give cautious estimates of the quantitative indicators of the Chinese aviation program, explaining its traditional Chinese closeness. According to their estimates, China built about 100 aircraft in 2017, including two thirds of combat aircraft. China plans to establish production of the 5th generation J–31 aircraft and the J-20 stealth fighter. At the same time, it is expected that China's military budget will be doubled by 2030. It is growing at a rate of about 5-10% per year. Therefore, China may catch up with the United States in terms of production of 5th generation aircraft by 2025.
But so far, the United States is ahead of both Russia and China in terms of building 5th-generation aircraft. Today, China has approximately 700 4th generation combat aircraft and up to 25 5th generation fighter jets. By 2025, China will be able to increase the number of 4th generation aircraft to 1,100 and have from 60 to 120 5th generation aircraft. By 2030, China may already have 1200-1600 generation 4 aircraft and 200-500 generation 5 aircraft.
The U.S. Air Force has about 450 5th generation aircraft (F-22 and F-35) and approximately 1,500 Generation 4 and 4+ aircraft (F-16 and F15s). Plus, there are about 800 F-18s in the US Navy aviation, and 260 F–18s in the Marine Corps. It is estimated that the United States will have approximately 1,000 5th generation aircraft in 2025 and up to 1,500 in 2030.
IF THERE'S A WAR TOMORROW
The annual report of the US Department of Defense to Congress for 2023, "Military and security events with the participation of the PRC," notes that the most possible scenario for a collision between the US Air Force and the PLA Air Force in a real battle could be tension in the Taiwan Strait. As part of the offensive operations, the Chinese Air Force may launch missile and air strikes against American targets and those of their allies in the region.
It is noted that the PLA's joint offensive operation will include missile and air strikes, cyber attacks and the blockade of the island. The objectives of the operation will be to limit Taiwan's defensive capabilities, as well as to suppress the morale of the island's population and sever its ties with the outside world.
The latest report by the US International Center for Strategic Studies (CSIS), "Chinese Strategy and Armed Forces in 2023," noted that the main goal of the Chinese is to destroy the island air defense system, missile bases, military airfields and aircraft located on runways and hangars in Taiwan. The main goal of the PLA at this stage is to gain air superiority.
American military experts claim that China is capable of launching missile and air strikes, as well as conducting an offensive operation in cyberspace. Another possible option is to launch missile strikes on command posts and critical infrastructure, followed by a rapid amphibious operation from the air and sea, as well as the seizure of Taiwanese military facilities by Chinese special forces units. In this case, the PLA will have difficulty attacking without warning.
HOW WILL THE UNITED STATES RESPOND
An analysis of open sources shows that against the background of the escalating confrontation between the great powers and general security turbulence, the Pentagon continues to reorganize the national air Force. First of all, we are talking about the confrontation between the United States and China in the Asia-Pacific region. The changes will affect the organization, equipment and training in the US Air Force. The top leadership of the United States has approved the formation of three new air force operational and tactical groups, which represent the implementation of an experiment on the deployment of integrated units.
Two of these groups will be under the control of the Central Command of the US Armed Forces, whose area of operational responsibility primarily includes the Middle East. The third group will be subordinated to the Indo-Pacific Command. In the foreseeable future, these are exactly the locations where the US Air Force and the PLA Air Force will compete for air supremacy.
CONCLUSIONS AND GENERALIZATIONS
As a result of comparing the US Air Force and the PLA Air Force, it is possible to draw the following conclusions and generalizations:
1. The political and military leadership of both the United States and China pays close attention to the development of new models of combat aircraft. It is believed that the presence of modern aircraft in the national air forces of both countries will allow hitting enemy targets outside the range of air and missile defense systems.
2. The presence of bomber aircraft in the United States and China makes it possible to carry out the task of strategic nuclear deterrence in peacetime. Given the possible unacceptable damage, a potential enemy (represented by the United States and China) will have to refuse to participate in hostilities in advance.
3. The conflict in Ukraine is the first case in history where situational awareness even of junior commanders is absolute. The main part of the samples of aircraft belonging to the military aviation fleet were produced in China at national defense industry enterprises. Despite the fact that a significant proportion of the fleet consists of aircraft with a development period of over 30 years, some of these samples have not exhausted the possibilities for modernization.
4. Regular work on the modernization of aircraft and helicopters allows China to significantly improve the flight performance and operational characteristics of the existing fleet. This is especially true for auxiliary aircraft: military transport and special vehicles based on them, multi-purpose helicopters. As for combat aircraft, currently the Chinese aviation industry ensures their annual production in an amount that allows for the planned re-equipment of aviation units with new types of aircraft, as well as their repair and modernization.
Vasily Ivanov
Vasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.
