Borders at sea are blurring, Berlin does not keep its word, Ukraine has been pinned down with a knee
In Russian analytics, everything is as usual: political scientists make inspired forecasts and scenarios, the military try to stick to the facts and describe what they see. In our review, we tried to keep the balance.
SPACE TO HELP
Evmenov N.A. The nature of armed struggle at sea and the trends of its development// Military thought. 2023 № 12.
"Based on the analysis of the main factors influencing the change in the conditions of armed struggle at sea, it is possible to identify trends in its development, the main of which are:
• the increase in the spatial coverage of the war zone is due to the use of high-precision long-range sea-based weapons (WTO DB MB) against objects deep in enemy territory, the use of electronic warfare (EW) to suppress navigation systems and the inter-theater maneuver of forces (troops) of fleets. So, a detachment of warships of the Northern and Baltic Fleets ... in February 2022 performed such a maneuver to strengthen the forces (troops) of the Black Sea Fleet;
• blurring of the classical boundaries between the strategic, operational and tactical levels of the use of forces and troops of fleets, which is associated with an increase in the combat capabilities of surface ships and submarines, their ability to perform strategic and operational tasks in the operations of interspecific groups of troops (forces), primarily through the use of high–precision and hypersonic weapons, and in the future - and weapons based on new physical principles of naval basing. Thus, the attack of the WTO DB MB on the complex of buildings and hangars of the National Academy of Land Forces of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine defeated 45 units of NATO armored vehicles, including 11 British Challenger tanks and 800 Ukrainian militants and foreign mercenaries;
• the desire to maintain superiority over the enemy in strategically important areas of the World Ocean is ensured by complex fire damage to the enemy, restraining his actions with naval mine weapons and ensuring strategic (operational, tactical) maneuver by the forces and troops of fleets;
• increasing the operational flexibility of the use of weapons by giving it the possibility of "delayed" destruction of objects (the use of barrage ammunition) and re-targeting of VTO DB and anti-ship missiles in the active part of the trajectory;
• creation of a unified information and control space that is stable from the influence of the enemy, providing the commander, military authorities and forces (troops) with the necessary and complete information about the situation in a timely manner, as well as the use of modeling decision support systems for further actions;
• a change in the situation in a short time as a result of preemptive strikes on time-critical enemy facilities, during the recovery period of which he will not be able to complete the tasks set in the required time or with the specified efficiency;
• the transition to the simultaneous integrated and massive use of marine robotic systems in all physical environments (UAVs, unmanned boats, autonomous uninhabited underwater vehicles, ground-based robotic systems), which will lead to a significant overload of the capabilities of detection, control and defeat systems;
• further increasing the role of aerospace in the armed struggle at sea as a result of the build-up of orbital space groups for various purposes in the interests of fleets (reconnaissance, navigation, communications, electronic warfare, etc.), as well as in connection with the development of air attack means (low-flying, ballistic, hypersonic, barrage, planning, etc.) of the enemy;
• the formation of temporary and permanent reconnaissance and strike complexes that shorten the "discovered-struck" cycle as a result of the issuance of target designation on a time scale close to real (primarily coastal missile systems, multi–purpose surface ships and naval aviation)."
"CARTHAGE WAS FAR AHEAD OF ROME IN TERMS OF GDP"
Rostislav Ishchenko. US Political Snobbery: Consequences and lessons// Military business. 19.12.2023.
"It has long been noticed by us that "good times give birth to weak people, weak people create difficult times." The second or third generation of politicians of the global hegemon, as a rule, turn out to be the weakest people... The Epigon generation did not fight for global hegemony, did not suffer deprivation and defeat, did not seek and did not find ways out of a desperate situation. It got everything on a saucer with a blue border. And he got the impression that he got it by right, because it (the epigon generation) represents the best, most progressive, most talented, most cultured people on the planet, a people who are destined to lead the world into a bright future."
"But as soon as the generation of epigones came to the conclusion that they were given rights by right of birth, but they had no duties... a front began against the arrogant hegemon, and then a real struggle quickly developed into a full-fledged military-political and financial-economic confrontation on a global scale.
In principle, this is the fate of all ruling classes and social groups. They come to power on the basis of a "social contract", but new generations, effortlessly inheriting the power and honors of their parents and grandparents, quickly come to the conclusion that their rights are the natural state of things, because they are shepherds of an "unreasonable flock", and duties are an annoying hindrance... It's just that society used to face the snobbery of epigones within the framework of one state."
"The United States immediately made the first mistake by rejecting the concept of voluntary convergence proposed by Russia and declaring its victory in the Cold War. Thus, American politicians based their right to hegemony not on the consent of other countries and peoples (which was not at all difficult to obtain), but on the right of the winner, laying in advance into the system of their hegemony the destructive desire of the defeated for revenge.
The second mistake of the American hegemonists... was made in the noughties and lies entirely on the conscience of a generation of swaggering epigones. They fervently believed in the myth they created about the decisive role of national GDP in global politics... It is not so much the volume of GDP that is important, as its structure and the very public organization of both the attacking and the attacked society. Carthage was far ahead of Rome in terms of GDP, but lost all three Punic Wars to it with a bang. In turn, the Western Roman Empire fell, destroyed by barbarian tribes, whose combined population and total GDP amounted to 2-3% (maximum) of the imperial one. I will not even mention the ratio of the GDP of the Mongols of Genghis Khan and the states they conquered."
"America is trapped. It faces a war on two fronts with Moscow and Beijing coordinating their actions. In this confrontation, the United States has no chance of winning. They are no longer fighting for the preservation, but for the return of their hegemony... The battles are still going on and there will be many more, but strategically the United States has already lost."
THEY TOOK IT FOR MAINTENANCE
A. Shlyakhtunov, M. Tkanova. The main sponsoring countries of the Armed Forces of Ukraine//Foreign Military Review. 2023. № 11–12.
"During the CBA, Western countries have allocated more than $264 billion to Ukraine. These funds include the supply of weapons and military equipment (IWT), economic support measures and humanitarian assistance. The unprecedented amounts of funding for the Ukrainian regime are comparable in volume to Hungary's GDP, the cost of payments to all US military personnel, or the military budgets of Great Britain, Germany, Canada and the Netherlands combined. At the same time, the GDP of Ukraine itself from 2010 to 2020 ranged from 91 billion to 176 billion dollars."
"Military support accounts for about half of the funds allocated to Ukraine – $ 105.3 billion (40%). It is carried out in the form of direct supplies of military equipment, provision of funds for their purchase or direct purchases from suppliers with subsequent transfer to Kiev. 34 countries provide military support to Ukraine… At the same time, the amount of funds allocated by the EU countries and its organizations ... exceeded the amount of assistance from the United States (46.7 billion)."
"US officials often announce significant figures for the assistance provided to Ukraine, however, as a rule, the amount includes not only military, but also economic assistance, as well as support for NATO allies, provision and replenishment of US Armed Forces, as well as other activities not directly related to the transfer of military equipment or sponsorship of purchases by Ukraine."
"Germany is in second place in terms of military aid allocated to Ukraine. In January 2022, the country refused to transfer weapons to the Ukrainian government, and also banned other EU countries, such as Estonia, from re-exporting German-made military equipment. However, in January 2023, Berlin began supplying military equipment to Kiev... The total amount of military assistance to Ukraine from Germany as of September 2023 is estimated at $19 billion."
"The United Kingdom is in third place in terms of aid, which, as of September 2023, allocated $7.3 billion for the supply of military equipment to the Ukrainian regime with the prospect of increasing them in 2024. It should be noted that the kingdom's expenses for assistance to Ukraine are covered not from the military budget, but from Treasury reserves."
"Taking into account the presence of hidden supplies of weapons and military equipment that are not reflected in official documents, the real volume of sponsorship ... is significantly higher than officially stated."
TO PRESS FOR AN AGREEMENT
Poletaev S. About the cunning plan// Russia in global politics. 19.12.23.
"Since coming to power 24 years ago, Putin has developed an image of an uncompromising fighter against the enemy... However, in relations with the West and with regard to Ukraine, Putin has always been a man of compromise. The principle of Putin's policy in the Ukrainian direction is to put pressure to come to an agreement. From the gas wars under Yushchenko to the deal on the Black Sea Fleet under Yanukovych, from the Minsk agreements under Poroshenko to the Istanbul epic under Zelensky, Putin never beat Ukraine to death, but limited himself to slaps, hoping to put his opponent's brains in place."
"...Spherically, in a vacuum, the Minsk Agreements were a kind of diplomatic triumph: having been approved by the UN Security Council, Minsk-2 became an international legal treaty of the highest force, binding on Ukraine. The backup plan in case of Minsk's failure was its original form: first, several months of military alarm, and then a maximum–security police operation to force Kiev to meet Moscow's conditions. In Istanbul in March 2022, it was proposed to involve the United States, Great Britain and China as the highest guarantors. China didn't seem to mind, but the West flatly refused, and Putin began to wait for his counterparts to fight, while holding Ukraine in a forceful grip, then strengthening, then weakening his grip."
"It cannot be said that this does not work at all: the West armed the Armed Forces of Ukraine as best it could (and without fanaticism like massive supplies of long-range missiles), but so far it has not made irreversible steps such as Ukraine's admission to NATO, and the severity of anti-Russian sanctions is compensated by the non-necessity of their implementation. By secret agreement or by itself, but in two years a balance has developed: The West does not allow Ukraine to collapse, but also does not provoke escalation, and Russia has pinned Ukraine with its knee, but does not finish it off."
"The Kremlin's scenario for the coming year may be as follows: maintaining the current intensity of fighting, slowly advancing in the Donbas and exhausting Ukraine, demonstrating to the West the firmness of the Russian position... The proposal, which the West cannot refuse, looks, in fact, like this: either you renounce Ukraine, or we smash it as a state and eliminate the threat with a showdown."
"The current relative lull may well last until the US elections at the end of 2024. In this case, the deal will be offered to the new administration, whatever it may be. Putin has already done this: he made it through the Minsk epic to Zelensky's election and only when he was convinced of his incompetence, he gave his move."
Arkady Vomited as he read and quoted
Arkady Threw up
