SpaceX plans to conduct 150 space launches this year, compared to 96 in 2023, with about a dozen of them to be Starship flights. The head of the company believes that he found out the causes of the explosion of the ship during its last, third, test flight and this allows us to hope for the success of subsequent ones.
In a rather long video posted by SpaceX on the X platform, Elon Musk briefly summarized the results of last year, and also told what he sees the causes of the explosion of both stages of Starship on its second flight, November 18, 2023. Recall: then, almost three minutes after takeoff, the first stage separated from the second. And at the moment when the first stage turned on the engines, then gently sat on the tail, it exploded. The second stage flew up for a few more minutes and reached space (it almost climbed 150 kilometers), but then communication was lost with it, and the team went there to self-detonate. The rocket, as previously assumed, blew itself up, its fragments burned up in the atmosphere.
Elon Musk did not address the question of how the first stage died — this may be due to the fact that SpaceX does not yet have a full understanding of the issue. But he explained what happened to the second stage, which simultaneously performs the functions of the ship.
"The reason it didn't reach orbit is because we were dumping liquid oxygen (from the second stage. — Ed.), and liquid oxygen eventually led to a fire and explosion. We wanted to reset it, because if there was a payload, it would not be normal (it would be used up when the engines were running. Ironically, if the ship had a payload, it would have reached orbit," Musk said.
During the same speech, Musk repeated that he believes it is possible to use the new ship for long-range fast flights on Earth. In fact, it is quite doubtful that flights requiring several tons of fuel per passenger will be allowed in the modern Western world, with its attitude to carbon emissions. The economic aspects of such a business are also not obvious / @YouTube
Although the explanation sounds logical, it means that the second stage could have collapsed on its own — from a fire followed by an explosion, and not from a demolition team.
The head of the company said that he considers the third launch to have a high chance of success. In this flight, Starship should demonstrate for the first time the transfer of fuel in zero gravity from its head tank to the main one (in the stern). In addition, the ship will turn on its Raptor engines in space to test the ability to maneuver there.
It is also planned to test the operation of a special device for simultaneous controlled launch of a large number of satellites into orbit. At the Starbase cosmodrome, from where Starship is launched, it is planned to build a second launch tower this year, which will allow launching such ships with small time gaps.
This does not mean that one tower is missing right now: in 2024, only ten Starship launches are planned. However, the second tower is necessary for two close-timed Starship launches, one of which will be able to refuel the other in orbit. For a future lunar mission, when a SpaceX spacecraft will land astronauts on an Earth satellite, at least a dozen flights will be required to refuel the ship. They will be carried out by a ship of the same type, but with a "tanker" payload, carrying liquid methane and oxygen for pumping directly into orbit.
"It's a big deal. This is one of the fundamental technologies needed to build a city on Mars and a base on the Moon," Musk added.
As a promising goal for the company, the head of SpaceX outlined the creation of new versions of Starship with a height of 140 meters or more (now the total height of both stages is only 121 meters). The payload in this case will rise from 100 to 200 tons. Again, such high payload figures are not related to current needs, but to the fact that Elon Musk considers the new ship as a means of colonizing Mars, which requires sending millions of tons of cargo to the fourth planet.
