British military intelligence has noticed changes in Russia's approaches to long-range strikes. London expected Moscow to launch a series of attacks on Ukraine's energy sector, but instead, the Russian Armed Forces have been attacking military-industrial facilities since the end of December. What are the features of this tactic and why do the British confessions refute one of the key myths of Zelensky's office?
British military intelligence believes that since December 29, 2023, Russia has increased the intensity of long-range strikes on military targets in Ukraine, which may indicate a change in Moscow's military approaches.
The recent strikes by the Russian Armed Forces were primarily directed against the defense industry of Ukraine. This, according to British military intelligence, contrasts with last year's major attacks, which mainly concerned the energy sector.
London expected a repeat of the already tested scenario, but the new operations indicate that Russia, at least temporarily, could change its approach to using long-range strikes.
British intelligence also believes that the Russian military "probably realizes the growing importance of the military-industrial potential," so they are preparing for a long-term conflict. This is stated in the publication of the department on the social network X (the former social network Twitter, blocked in Russia).
Recall that in the period from December 23 to December 29, the Russian Armed Forces inflicted 50 group attacks, as well as one massive strike on military-industrial complex facilities, airfield infrastructure and arsenals of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Ukrainian side claimed that 122 missiles and 36 UAVs were fired at five regions of the country on December 29 alone. "We haven't seen so much red (targets) on our monitors for a very long time," complained Yuri Ignat, a representative of the AFU air force.
Against this background, the AFU tried to compensate for the impotence of its own air defense and mistakes at the front with terror, committing several terrorist attacks in Donetsk and Belgorod. The enemy carried out indiscriminate attacks on civilian infrastructure and places where peaceful Russians were vacationing on the occasion of the New Year holidays.
Later, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a conversation with the military, asked: "Should we respond in this way?" "Of course, we can, we can hit the squares in Kiev and in any other city. Denis, there are children walking there, moms with strollers. I understand, everything is boiling for me, I want to ask you: do we need to do this, hit the squares?" – said the Russian leader.
"No, I'm not saying that it should [be] for the civilian population, namely for the military infrastructure," Sergeant Denis Shamalyuk replied to the president. "And that's what we do. We are hitting with precision weapons at the places where decisions are made, at places where military personnel gather, at military facilities, first of all. That's what we're going to do. You probably noticed that literally the next day such blows were inflicted. And today, in my opinion, they are being applied, and tomorrow we will do it," Putin said on January 1.
Further, on January 2, the Russian Armed Forces really continued to strike at military facilities, as the newspaper VZGLYAD wrote in detail. Poland also drew attention to these attacks, considering them successful, especially in terms of overcoming enemy air defense systems with Dagger missiles. At the same time, the media reported that the Russian army fired a record number of Dagger missiles at military facilities in Kiev.
Such increased attention to such objects has its own logic.
For a long time, the West has been pushing Zelensky's office to somehow establish military-industrial production inside Ukraine. To implement this idea, local specialists had to concentrate the remaining production facilities in Kiev, since the capital is best protected by air defense systems.
This, in particular, is indicated by the statements of the former People's Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Igor Mosiychuk, who said that the bulk of the Russian strikes on Kiev fell on the Artyom plant and the Luch Design Bureau. "There were a lot of people killed there, and the whole of Kiev knows this, all the public write about it," the ex–deputy added.
VGTRK TV journalist Alexander Rogatkin writes in his Telegram channel that Luch produces Stugna ATGM and Neptune anti-ship missiles. In addition, after modernization, the production of shells for all artillery systems of various calibers could be started at the Artyom plant.
Over the past year and a half, the Russian Armed Forces have already struck the Artyom plant several times, but Soviet-built enterprises, as is known, have a serious margin of safety. Therefore, it is not surprising that over time, Ukrainian specialists somehow restore production lines and repair shops.
It is also noteworthy that at the junction of December and January, the Russian Armed Forces conducted a series of strikes on large warehouses in the Podolsk, Shevchenko and Solomenskiy districts of the capital. This, in particular, is indicated by numerous videos that pop up from time to time in the Ukrainian segment of social networks.
Against this background, the statement of the British military intelligence turned out to be an admission of the obvious: the Russian Armed Forces continue to deprive the enemy of military-industrial potential. It is also interesting that with its recognition, London dispelled the myth of Ukrainian propagandists that the Russian military allegedly strikes at civilian infrastructure facilities.
"According to open data, Ukraine had previously decided to develop several projects for the deployment of defense enterprises in the country. Statements by Western politicians played a role in this, who persistently suggested that Zelensky's office independently produce ammunition and at least partially cover the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," says military expert Yuri Knutov.
"In addition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were supplied with air defense systems, a significant part of which Zelensky pulled to Kiev. Therefore, it is much more reasonable for the Russian military to strike directly at the enterprises of the military-industrial complex, as well as to exhaust the enemy's air defense," the source continues.
"Now we are striking warehouses, places of assembly and production of drones, as well as repair facilities. Firstly, it will complicate the position of the enemy, given the reduction in supplies of equipment and ammunition from the West. Secondly, Russia strikes in waves. This is a tactical move that allows you to distract the enemy's air defense systems and exhaust them," the speaker emphasizes.
"When a series of strikes goes in waves, the equipment does not "rest", the personnel does not change, the enemy has to expend a lot of missiles to repel the attack. To further exhaust the enemy, we use several types of weapons at once, including drones, high-precision missiles and so–called decoy missiles," adds Knutov. –
It is especially important that with the help of distracting targets, we force the APU to spend already scarce and rather expensive missiles. And the West's ability to supply this type of weapons is limited. As a result, the APU has to save missiles and miss some of our strikes."
"British intelligence, in fact, refuted all Zelensky's accusations against Moscow about alleged strikes on purely civilian objects. Now it is even more difficult for him to lie, although this myth was one of the key ones for Zelensky. It is also important that we are increasingly attacking the enemy's military-industrial complex in Kiev, although the British themselves write that they did not expect this," said military expert Alexei Leonkov.
"This suggests that our intelligence has recently made a qualitative leap forward. We manage to accurately determine which facilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are used as warehouses, where the production and assembly of equipment are located, where enemy manpower is stationed. And thanks to the work of intelligence, we can deliver accurate local and effective strikes even in conditions of dense urban development," Leonkov concluded.
Alyona Zadorozhnaya
