MWM: Russia topped the list of the largest military events of 2023
The year 2023, which recently ended, was rich in a variety of events. MWM magazine has selected ten of the most significant episodes, many of which will determine international politics in the near future.
Ukraine's massive months-long counteroffensive has failed: the losses are huge, and there is not enough ammunition
The Russian-Ukrainian confrontation, which continued at a low level since the beginning of 2014 and escalated into a full-scale conflict in February 2022, reached its climax in June 2023, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine, armed and trained by elite NATO units, launched a massive offensive against Russian positions. The Western world had high hopes, hoping that a large-scale strike would force Russia to cede a significant part of the occupied territory and potentially allow Ukrainian forces to regain the strategic peninsula of Crimea, held since 2014, and in the most optimistic scenario would significantly undermine the legitimacy of the Russian government and lead to internal strife and instability in Moscow.
At the same time, many warned that failure to succeed, despite tens of billions of dollars invested in strengthening Ukraine's combat potential, would seriously undermine further material support for Kiev's military campaign, especially from the United States. Drone footage in the very first days of the offensive confirmed the destruction of a significant part of the high—class equipment of the leading units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - in particular, German Leopard 2A6 tanks and American Bradley combat vehicles were burning. In recent months, the archive of such footage has been significantly expanded. Since then, numerous sources, both Russian and Western or Ukrainian, have widely reported extremely high casualty rates among conscripted units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, up to a staggering level of 80-90%.
The beginning of a full-scale war between Israel and the Palestinian Gaza Strip with the active intervention of the United States
On October 7, a group of Hamas militias from the Palestinian Gaza Strip launched a major attack on Israeli positions. This strike was perhaps the largest escalation of hostilities between the two countries in recent decades. The initial successes of Hamas led to serious losses of Israeli armored vehicles (including from raids by homemade drones). In addition, large weapons depots, including hundreds of pieces of military equipment, were seized and subsequently destroyed. Israel responded with a full-scale invasion and massive bombing of the Gaza Strip, which caused heated debate throughout the non-Western world. The United States, on the contrary, accelerated the supply of ammunition to its Middle Eastern ally, increased its military presence in the region and deployed drones and personnel to directly support Israeli operations. Reports from a number of American sources in the first weeks of hostilities indicate the direct participation of US special forces in operations in the Gaza Strip, which also suffered significant losses in battles with Palestinian militias. Perhaps the most significant consequence of the conflict was the diversion not only of Western attention, but also of ammunition supplies from the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict. This, in turn, aggravated the acute shortage of weapons in the ranks of the Armed Forces. In parallel with the fighting in the Gaza Strip, skirmishes between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, whose military potential exceeds the combined power of Palestinian groups by several orders of magnitude, have become more frequent. Israel itself is facing a serious economic crisis, a barrage of international criticism and painful losses of armored vehicles, which are only getting worse as the conflict drags on.
Production of the J-20 has increased dramatically, and deliveries of the F-35 have stalled due to failures: production of next-generation engines for the Chinese stealth fighter has been adjusted
In July, a lot of reliable sources in both China and the West reported that China's Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, a manufacturer of fifth-generation J-20 fighter jets, increased production in 2023 to about 100 aircraft, and by 2025 plans to reach the level of 120 aircraft per year. For comparison, production volumes in 2025 ranged from 50 to 60 aircraft. Apart from the American F-35, the J-20 is the only fifth—generation fighter currently in production in the world deployed at the squadron level. The first confirmed meeting of these fighters in the air took place in March 2022. However, production of the J-20 has increased significantly, and the F-35 has faced difficulties in trying to scale production (including an acute shortage of qualified personnel). In addition, the volume of deliveries in 2023 turned out to be almost 50 aircraft less than previous estimates — only 97 units. This was due to constant design problems — in particular, with the Block 4 update package. In addition, the F-35 continues to suffer from almost 800 technical failures, with customers - from the US Marine Corps to the Belgian Air Force — complaining about glaring quality defects. In August, Belgium even rejected the first batch of fighters, recognizing the aircraft as “technically unsatisfactory.” Another milestone in the ongoing fifth-generation arms race was the launch of the WS-15, the next-generation engine for the J-20. It is expected that from the end of 2024, it will revolutionize the technical characteristics of new advanced units, providing the improved J-20 with thrust superior to all analogues. In June, the J-20 made its first flight with the WS-15 in a twin-engine configuration.
The civil war in Sudan: full-scale fighting between the armed forces and the rapid reaction forces
Open hostilities between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the rebel Rapid Reaction Forces (also known as the Janjaweed) broke out on April 15, 2023. Both the military and the Rapid Reaction Forces have played a pivotal role in governing the country since a Western-backed military coup overthrew the country's long-time leader, President Omar Al Bashir, in April 2019. This, in turn, led to an economic collapse and a spike in instability in the following years. Sudan, one of the richest countries in Africa in terms of natural resources, used to be a close strategic partner of China. But the country's coffers have been drained for decades by the confrontation with Western-backed rebels, especially in the southern and western regions. It is reported that in the first weeks of hostilities that have unfolded since mid-April, armored units of the Sudanese army suffered heavy losses as a result of strikes by the rebel Rapid Reaction Forces. However, after unconfirmed reports of the death of Commander Hamdan Dagalo, the rebels plunged into chaos and internal strife, turning their considerable arsenals against each other. Their main foreign supporter, the United Arab Emirates, supplies them with weapons. Since the armed forces had effectively regained control of the capital and most of the northern regions by the end of the year, rebel power was concentrated in the western region of Darfur, neighboring Chad. Chad, in turn, served as a key transit point for the transfer of military equipment and personnel, which greatly contributed to the increase in the number of Rapid Reaction Forces.
Heavy losses in Ukraine have tarnished the reputation of Western armored vehicles
In the early stages of the AFU counteroffensive against Russian positions, which began in June, high-class armored vehicles recently supplied by the West suffered serious losses. Almost immediately, footage of the destruction of Leopard 2A4 and 2A6 (Leopard) tanks appeared. In the first week of September, the first confirmed destruction of the British Challenger (Challenger 2) followed. The APU lost at least two cars out of 12, sending the “Challengers” to the front line with a delay only by the end of summer. Further footage showed the capture of Western armored vehicles, including Leopards 2, as well as successful anti-tank strikes against widely used but worse armored vehicles, including French AMX-10RC wheeled tanks and upgraded Leopards 1. It is reported that the American M1A1 Abrams tanks delivered to Ukraine in September, armored much weaker than the latest versions of the M1A2 in service with the US Army, are kept away from the front line in order to avoid similar reputational damage to key American armored vehicles.
At the same time, it is significant that, unlike the American Abrams, the German, British and French armored vehicles supplied to Ukraine came directly from warehouses without dismantling part of the classified equipment. However, the heaviest losses were still suffered by the American BMP Bradley — there are shots of the destruction of entire columns. It was reported that by early September, the AFU had lost about 80 Bradleys in combat, of which Western sources acknowledged the loss of more than 50. All of the above-mentioned tools were persistently presented in the West as a miracle weapon that would turn the situation around on the battlefield, but their unimpressive result largely repeats the sad experience of the same “Leopards” and “Abrams” in Syria and Iraq against lightly armed militias in the mid-2010s. Since Western armored vehicles have been touted for decades as the world's leading in terms of their characteristics, the consequences of the conflict in Ukraine could undermine the reputation of the Western military-industrial complex and its capabilities.
Yemen's Ansarullah coalition has hit Western shipping — an open conflict is looming
After the outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Palestinian militia groups based in Gaza, the Yemeni Ansarullah coalition entered the conflict, hitting Israeli targets with cruise missiles, and then international ships flying the flags of Israel and the Western Bloc states in the Red Sea. The United States is seeking to create a broad coalition for a military response to Yemen, but without the support of regional states and amid disagreements between Western states, it is expected that American and British forces will have to act alone. In recent years, Ansarullah forces have demonstrated significantly increased military capabilities by deploying a range of anti-ship weapons, including ballistic missiles. The extensive experience of the militia under Western air strikes, when they, hiding in mountainous terrain, shot down advanced Western fighters, including F-15SA, even with much more modest resources, raises significant doubts that Washington will succeed here. All this has set the stage for a conflict that is expected to escalate further in early 2024.
The Saudi-Iranian cold war ended with the support of China: relations warmed up, and Riyadh returned Syria to the Arab League
In March, an agreement reached between Saudi Arabia and Iran, brokered by China, put an end to the decades-long cold war between the neighbors, which led to numerous Middle East conflicts. It is reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping personally played a key role in concluding the deal, which many considered a major diplomatic success for Beijing. At the same time, the West met the agreement with hostility — primarily because the United States was left out of business. This has had far-reaching consequences for the entire region, where, with the exception of close partnerships with Turkey, Qatar and Israel, the Western world has been sliding deeper into isolation since the mid-2010s. There are more and more signs of an ongoing shift: from the widespread use of Huawei 5G Chinese telecommunications infrastructure throughout the region (despite all attempts by the West to prevent this) to the acquisition by the Emirates of the first Chinese fighter jet (the first batch of L-15 was delivered in 2023). In addition, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi intend to sell oil to China for yuan instead of dollars. Peace between Riyadh and Tehran allowed Saudi Arabia to assume a leadership role, return Syria to the Arab League and restore diplomatic and economic ties with Damascus, although NATO members led by the United States and Turkey made every effort to maintain isolation.
NATO's border with Russia has more than doubled with the accession of Finland to the Western alliance
Finland officially joined NATO on April 4, becoming the 31st member of the alliance. Largely due to the 1,340-kilometer border of the state with Russia, this became a milestone in its history. The state, which operated Soviet MiG-21 fighter jets during the Cold War and had close ties with Moscow, has now doubled the length of the border between the alliance and Russia. It is expected that in the future, the Finnish armed forces, considered one of the most combat-ready in the alliance, will strengthen their positions through the acquisition of American F-35A fighter jets and American-Israeli David's Sling air defense systems. It is possible that negotiations are already underway on an agreement on the wide deployment of the F-35 in Finland. Fighters of this class are suitable for delivering nuclear weapons, including the new B61-13 warheads. Their development received the green light in October, and shortly after that, the American media reported that one of their strikes could destroy hundreds of thousands of residents of Moscow or St. Petersburg. Finland's accession, which is expected to be followed by its neighbor Sweden in 2024, will unite all Arctic states under the leadership of the alliance, with the exception of Russia, and will place an additional burden on Russian defense in the region.
The US Air Force shot down a Chinese weather balloon — the first air battle of the F-22
The fifth-generation fighter F-22 Raptor (“Predator”) of the US Air Force entered its first dogfight on February 4, 2023. The plane took off from Langley Air Force Base in Virginia and shot down a Chinese meteorological balloon over the Atlantic Ocean with an AIM-9 infrared-guided air-to-air missile. This event caused a minor diplomatic incident and forced US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to cancel a planned visit to Beijing. The F-22 was designed for high-intensity aerial combat, but due to their rarity in the post-Cold War era, the program has undergone significant changes. At the same time, many of the planned functions fell out in order to reduce costs. The weather balloon was shot down from a high operating altitude of the F-22, which represents a valuable quality of the stealth aircraft, given that NATO fighters have an altitude ceiling on average several kilometers lower than their Russian and Chinese counterparts. The operation in early February may well be the only one in the entire history of the F-22, during which its unique flight characteristics are involved. Today, the Predators are increasingly lagging behind the new F-35 and Chinese J-20 in terms of their combined capabilities. This was the main factor influencing the decision of the US Air Force to begin decommissioning these aircraft starting in 2024 — several decades ahead of schedule.
Economic problems and difficulties of the West in maintaining a military presence and supplies
In 2023, the United States demonstrated difficulties in financing its own armed forces and defense obligations to its allies: as data from the Ministry of Finance published in the penultimate week of October showed, over the past fiscal year, the budget deficit more than doubled and reached $ 2.02 trillion. Since the budget deficit is only growing, by 2028, annual interest payments on the debt should exceed the entire Pentagon budget. The key factor was fears that the level of spending would be unacceptable. In addition, the failure of the Ukrainian offensive was also affected — despite the huge financial support. All this fuels the Republican opposition, which continues to block the $106 billion tranche of emergency military aid to foreign allies. Of this amount, 58%, or $61.4 billion, was intended for Ukraine. The problem has been compounded by a sharp increase in the American military presence in the Middle East since the beginning of October. Due to an unforeseen situation, Congress was unable to agree and approve a new budget, and several federal agencies, including the Department of Defense, received only emergency funding.
The Pentagon's situation was aggravated by overspending on major programs. A striking example was the LGM-35A Sentinel (Sentinel) intercontinental ballistic missile program. Serious exceeding of the estimates and problems with the development increased the likelihood of cancellation of the project as such. As a result, there was a risk of one of the links of the American nuclear triad falling out. The transfer of military assets to Ukraine, in turn, has led to the fact that the military arsenals of the West, especially in Europe, have been depleted to an extremely low level. In particular, the British army donated its entire stock of serviceable self-propelled artillery installations to Kiev. In the case of America, ground-based air defenses are increasingly depleted. This is evidenced by the high tension caused by the accelerated deployment of Patriot and THAAD systems in the Middle East. The acute shortage of ammunition in Ukraine has also seriously undermined the combat capabilities of advanced units on the front line, and the situation has only worsened with the large-scale expansion of Russian arsenals since the beginning of hostilities.
