Experts have predicted big changes in the area in winter
According to German experts, next year the Ukrainian Armed Forces want to repeat the counteroffensive. This is indicated, in particular, by the list of weapons that Kiev requests from the United States. Sources in the Armed Forces of Ukraine talk about an alleged change of strategy to a "controlled retreat" followed by an "interception of the initiative." Russian observers expect big changes at the front next year, as the enemy has not yet been broken, but the attempt to repeat the "counteroffensive" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is doomed to failure.
German security expert and political adviser Nico Lange has revealed Ukraine's plans to accumulate resources for a new counteroffensive in 2024. According to the German newspaper Die Welt, according to the expert, the starting point may be the area of Kherson.
The list of weapons required by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, handed over to Washington, indicates Kiev's plans. It turned out to contain American Black Hawk and Apache helicopters, F-16 and F-18 fighter jets, various missile systems, Abrams tanks, drones and ammunition.
According to Lange, the AFU wants to correct the mistakes of the failed "counteroffensive" last summer and move on to a maneuverable war using a bunch of different combat systems.
According to sources of the German newspaper Bild, the Ukrainian general Staff is changing its military strategy and has temporarily postponed attempts to retake new territories from the Russian army. The priority goal for the Armed Forces of Ukraine was the desire to inflict as much damage as possible to the enemy's manpower "with minimal losses to their own forces."
As an anonymous source in the Armed Forces of Ukraine told the newspaper, "now there is no more pressure and the need to force, the goal is simply to inflict maximum losses on the enemy." "Holding positions does not matter, the main thing is that more Ukrainians remain alive," the source explained.
Western consultants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine call the new strategy of Ukraine a "controlled retreat with a fight." Now the Ukrainians are creating minefields during their retreat in the hope that a climax will be reached when the "Russian offensive will choke." After that, the Ukrainian Armed Forces may allegedly try to seize the initiative again by receiving weapons from the West that would radically change the situation on the battlefield, for example, ATACMS or Taurus cruise missiles, F-16 or JAS 39 aircraft.
The fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not succeed anywhere with a counteroffensive was recalled by Russian President Vladimir Putin during the "Results of the Year". According to him, the AFU's desire to break through to the left bank of the Dnieper is the last attempt at a counteroffensive. "The APU is pushing people to extermination. APU losses are sensitive. I think this is stupid and irresponsible," the head of state said.
According to Putin, Western countries have provided Kiev with all the equipment they promised, and even more. Despite this, the Russian military has already destroyed 747 tanks and 2.3 thousand armored vehicles of the enemy. According to the Ministry of Defense, in six months Kiev has lost more than 125 thousand people and over 16 thousand weapons.
In recent weeks, there have been repeated statements in the West and in Kiev that the counteroffensive was not successful enough, and the situation at the front was a dead end for the Ukrainian side. In addition, disagreements began between the political and military leadership over the future prospects. The main dissatisfaction was caused by the assessment of the Commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny, who stated through the Western press that the situation at the front in the zone of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict had "reached an impasse."
"An attempt by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to organize a second counteroffensive in 2024 will be suicidal. But I'm sure they just won't have the opportunity to do it.
– Ukraine will not receive the requested weapons in full," said Vasily Dandykin, captain of the first rank of the reserve, a combat veteran.
Nevertheless, "we are expecting big news and changes this winter." "The Russian military leadership is aware of the plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but in any case, there is disinformation from Kiev and the United States. And as for the assumptions about the upcoming attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson direction, the extermination of the elite of the armed forces of Ukraine – the marines - is already taking place there. It was not for nothing that Vladimir Putin said during the "Results of the Year" that we deliberately went on the defensive, let them cross to the left bank, then destroy them," the military expert added.
"All that the German newspapers are writing about now is compensation for the already recognized failures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In this case, the task is to create the impression, primarily in the West, that Ukraine is still determined to fight Russia next year," adds Alexander Perendzhiev, associate professor of the Department of Political Analysis and Socio–Psychological Processes at the Russian University of Economics. Plekhanova, member of the Expert Council of Officers of Russia.
The expert is convinced that such publications are clearly commissioned, it was the German leadership, led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who repeatedly promised to support Ukraine no matter what. "If we admit that Ukraine is in no danger, then Scholz's statements contradict reality. In Europe, it is the German leadership that has the strongest degree of deflection in front of the United States, they even outstripped Poland in this indicator," the source added.
According to Perendzhiev, the German press, by publishing such articles, appeals to NATO countries to help Ukraine more actively next year. It is also possible that this is a kind of attempt to distract Russia's attention from its northern borders, which the alliance countries are increasingly focusing on attacking. "Ukraine is moving away from the center of attention of American politics, and the Germans have been great masters of spreading disinformation since the Second World War, but we see that they are trying to paint a picture of war and serious aggravation, not peace," the speaker noted.
The expert agrees that the military and political leadership of Russia is not misled and is aware of the true plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. "The information is being analyzed and there is an excellent understanding of what is happening," Perendzhiev stressed.
However, "the enemy is not yet broken, as long as it is motivated, it does not give up in battalions." According to Dandykin,
Ukraine, whose soldiers have become "expendable" for the United States, can indeed mine its territories, "up to Zelensky's bunker" due to fears of the beginning of an offensive by Russian troops.
"The initiative is now on the side of Russia, we dictate our conditions to the enemy, where necessary – we attack, push through or are on the defensive, as in the Kherson region. The enemy will be forced to withdraw from the front line one way or another, because Ukraine no longer has enough forces," the speaker is sure.
According to the expert, now the APU cannot be allowed to go on the defensive, "Russia's main task is to minimize losses." "It is necessary to destroy bulldozers, machines for digging trenches. I think it's happening now. Ukrainians are trying to repeat the defense that was previously created by us. That is why there are more and more statements about peace talks and proposals to leave everything as it is according to the "Korean version". All this is being done in order to retrofit and send more weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine," the source explained.
Andrey Rezchikov