In the context of a global hybrid war, it is no longer possible to delay
Disruptive actions in the economic sphere are an essential component of the American strategy of global hybrid warfare.
In the Russian strategy of confrontation, it is important to find an effective response to new challenges, risks, dangers and threats that manifest themselves in the administrative, political, financial, economic, military, cultural and ideological spheres.
One of the key tasks of politicians and economists is to find an adequate management strategy in the economic sphere, the state of which crucially determines Russia's ability to withstand and win in the global hybrid conflict.
This article attempts to understand how the challenges and threats of our time affect the effectiveness of the management of the defense industrial complex (MIC) of Russia - an important part of the industrial complex of the country specializing in the scientific development and production of weapons, military equipment, providing them to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (Armed Forces of the Russian Federation) and other armed formations of the state.
The urgency of this task is emphasized by the need to find a response to a wide range of current and potential military-technical threats.
Currently, the most important factor of influence is the military-political situation in the world. It is crucially determined by the global hybrid war (MGW) being waged against Russia, as well as its allies and partners.
The following group of factors has a decisive impact on the development of the defense industry and its ability to respond promptly to the challenges, risks, dangers and threats of our time, flexibly adapt to emerging new threats and challenges:
– domestic and foreign policy of the country;
– military and military-technical policy of the country;
– economic, scientific and technical capabilities;
– availability of trained personnel;
– the ability to act based on its own industrial and resource base;
– the presence of technologically advanced allies and partners, whose connections are especially important in the context of illegal economic sanctions by the United States and the EU.
There is a multidimensional intercivilizational military conflict, during which our opponents resort to the purposeful adaptive use of both military and military methods of struggle, as well as the economic strangulation of rivals, the use of subversive information, psychological and cyber technologies.
The peculiarity of this type of conflict is the combination of political, informational, military, financial, economic and diplomatic impact on the object of aggression in real time.
When developing measures to counter the IHL, its fundamental difference from the wars of the classical type should be taken into account ( "The United States is betting on a global hybrid war", "HBO", 11/30/2013).
It should be noted that hybrid warfare in combination with technologies of "controlled chaos" in the organization of "color revolutions", as well as in combination with some other factors, contributes to the creation of global criticality, which undermines the fundamental foundations of the existing world order.
Mechanisms for strengthening and exploiting criticality are the basis for the concept of "controlled chaos" used to chaoticize the situation in the target country. Such mechanisms are generally disguised as measures to promote democracy and market reforms, to raise economic standards and resource needs that displace ideology ( "The Model of Controlled Chaos is a threat to Russia's national security", "HBO", 07/12/13).
ECONOMICS AND TECHNOLOGIES OF CONTROLLED CHAOS
In economics, as one of the important objects of the application of "controlled chaos" technologies, criticality can be created in each of the four interrelated and interdependent spheres: production, distribution, exchange and consumption.
Serious efforts are being made to chaoticize the economic management system, in which all four of the above areas are intertwined. Taking into account the purpose and specifics of the functioning of each sphere, an appropriate set of disruptive technologies can be selected.
Thus, the sphere of production, in which the creation of tangible and intangible goods is carried out, is very vulnerable from the point of view of potential chaoticization. Sanctions aimed at damaging the energy and financial sectors of the economy, as well as the defense sector, mechanical engineering and extractive industries, can have a devastating economic effect. In the context of a global hybrid war, our opponents are moving to carrying out terrorist acts in the economic sphere (undermining the "Nord Streams 1 and 2", etc.)
In domestic politics, violations of the principles of social justice in society in the process of distributing the wealth produced can serve as a powerful source of tension. Such violations can be provoked by corruption, failures in the work of public institutions – for example, housing and communal services, social protection agencies or tax authorities.
The activity of the exchange sphere is largely based on finance, which is a rather vulnerable part of the economy of any state. The experience of the collapse of the USSR and the "color revolutions" in a number of countries shows that the chaoticization of the financial sector is ensured by the use of international monetary and financial organizations controlled by the West, the introduction of targeted sanctions in the fields of production and financial and banking, manipulation of oil and gas prices. The chaotic process of consumption can be carried out, for example, by manipulating product prices, imposing an embargo on the supply of critically important goods.
And finally, the processes of chaoticization of the economic management system are aimed at integrating the entire spectrum of disruptive influences within the framework of the MGV strategy.
An analysis of the specifics of using "controlled chaos" technologies for subversive activities directed against target states shows that the primary goals for the impact of chaotic technologies, along with the sphere of military security of the state, are the socio-economic sphere - primarily finance, energy (in particular, oil and gas production) and international transport communications.
The United States considers the chaos created to be "manageable" and sees it as a new tool for promoting its national interests in conditions of global criticality under the pretext of democratizing the modern world (Bartosh A.A., "Hybrid wars as a manifestation of the global criticality of the modern world", "Geopolitics and Security", №1 (29), 2015). Many other countries view this process as a universal disaster that could lead to a global catastrophe.
The American strategy of using criticality in the national interests of the United States was cynically outlined in 1998 by Stephen Mann, one of the developers of the concept of controlled chaos:
"I would like to express one wish: we must be open to the possibility of strengthening and exploiting criticality if it is in our national interests – for example, when destroying the Iraqi military machine and the Saddam state. Here, our national interest takes precedence over international stability. In fact, whether we realize it or not, we are already taking measures to increase chaos when we promote democracy, market reforms, and when we develop the media through the private sector."
This is how the current concept of strengthening and using criticality against rival states was formulated. It has been further developed as an important tool of the hybrid war against Russia, primarily within the framework of its informational, psychological and economic components. In economics, the emphasis is on the formation and use of the criticality factor, primarily in the defense industry.
NECESSARY COUNTERACTION MEASURES
For Russia, in conditions of fierce confrontation, the accelerated development of the defense industry becomes an imperative in order to formalize it into an integral socio-economic phenomenon. It is impossible to achieve this without a strategic multi–stage transition to the use of forms and methods of cybernetic management of the defense industry as a driver of development - a catalyst for the growth of the entire national economy, creating the foundation for economic stability in all sectors through multi-level ties and cooperation.
The urgency of the task of accelerated development of the defense industry and its transfer to modern cybernetic forms and methods of management is determined by a number of factors that are fully manifested during Russia's special military operation in Ukraine:
– the increase in the scale of military conflicts up to the global hybrid war;
– increasing the role of scientific and technical confrontation between the parties;
– the need to ensure Russia's technological sovereignty as an important condition for victory in the MGV;
– The arms race and the expansion of the arms trade;
– the creation by our opponents of new multilateral formats, such as AUKUS, such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which, along with NATO and the EU, are aimed at creating obstacles to the sovereign economic development of Russia, China, Iran and some other states.
This makes the cybernetic economy one of the decisive factors for the country's development in the context of a global hybrid war.
In the MGV strategy, the factor of controlled criticality from the perspective of the modern theory of crisis management and the theory of systems management as a whole takes into account the presence of critical points (nodes of criticality) in the development of the socio-economic system of the victim state. The strategy and tactics of cybernetic economic management based on artificial intelligence technologies should be aimed at unblocking such critical nodes.
THE FACTOR OF CONTROLLED CRITICALITY IN THE ECONOMY
In economics, the factor of controlled criticality takes into account the balance of the degree of manageability and stability of the economic management system, depending on the factors of space, time and surprise, on the availability of resources.
The change in the vector of Russia's development after 2000 made it possible to slow down the destructive impact of criticality factors on the national security of the country, however, it did not completely eliminate the existing challenges and threats, the combined impact of which is aimed at weakening and subsequent disintegration of the state.
Forecasts of the development of the international situation for the period of several decades are united by the conclusion that there are serious prerequisites for further strengthening of global criticality and instability. This is facilitated by the following set of factors:
– in relation to Russia, the most important factor in increasing global criticality and instability is the lack of legal guarantees for the security of the Russian Federation, listed in the draft Treaty between Russia and the United States on Security Guarantees and the Agreement on Security Measures of the Russian Federation and NATO member States;
– the increasing role of non-state actors with a simultaneous increase in the number of possible political and military combinations, including state and non-state actors;
– the diffusion of power in a multipolar world against the background of the spread of information and military technologies;
– Demographic changes, including accelerated urbanization;
– increased competition for access to global resources.
In conditions of increasing global criticality, the threat of interstate conflicts with the use of modern types of precision weapons remains, while maintaining the role of nuclear weapons as a means of deterrence. As instruments of hybrid warfare, the doctrine of coercion and deterrence through denial is being developed.
The presence of such trends requires the preparation of the country, its economy and Armed Forces to participate in a wide range of possible classical and hybrid military conflicts.
THREE LEVELS OF MANAGEMENT AND ORGANIZATION OF INTERACTION
There is a need to move from discussions about the benefits of implementing cybernetic economic management to the development of a "roadmap" of a multi-stage process, the formation of algorithms for managing the cybernetic economy with the following hierarchy of management levels and solution development:
– the strategic or conceptual level at which goals are set and a common plan (scenario) is formed to achieve them;
– the operational level at which goals are detailed, tasks are assigned and assigned to performers and actions are planned;
– the tactical (executive) level, at which the choice of the optimal way to solve a specific task and guidance on its solution is carried out.
At each level, the situation in the financial and economic sphere is monitored. There are channels for information exchange, control and management between the levels.
Today, the tasks of the defense industry management are solved by about ten main federal bodies, from the Ministry of Defense to the military-industrial commission under the Government of the Russian Federation. The task of coordinating their activities can be significantly facilitated within the framework of a unified cybernetic management strategy.
The organization of interaction should be carried out taking into account the following factors:
– sources of power associated with the synergetic, multiplicative and cumulative application of the full range of state capabilities at all levels;
– ways of integrated use of forces and means in various spheres of public life in relation to the opposing side;
– methods of confrontation with the opposing side, allowing to upset its plans and neutralize its potential allies;
– continuity, efficiency, flexibility and sustainability of operations management;
– mutual awareness and cooperation between the forces and means of hybrid warfare based on the coordinated use of data from all types of intelligence and continuous monitoring of the situation;
– the ability of forces and means to act almost autonomously while maintaining a high degree of adaptation to changes in the situation, but within the framework of a single plan;
– the mobility factor, which allows you to concentrate forces and resources at the right time and in the right place and gain an advantage over the enemy;
– the goal setting factor in the process of selecting one or more objectives of an operation with the establishment of parameters of permissible deviations in managing the course of a hybrid war in accordance with its strategy and intent.
This makes it possible to talk about the transition to cybernetic economic management as an important measure to ensure the national security of the Russian Federation.
WHERE TO START
It seems that the transition to cybernetic management of the defense industry should be considered as a step-by-step process for the formation of control algorithms in a vital area for the country.
For example, at one of the first stages, the process of creating the necessary cybernetic management tools in the high-tech field can be worked out with the participation of a nationally oriented business in relation to the development and production of general aviation aircraft (AON) and in the national project for the development of unmanned aviation, unmanned aerial systems (UAVs).
As you know, AON is a civil aviation that is not used for commercial air transportation and aviation work (eng. General aviation), or small aircraft. In Russia, the need for AON aircraft is estimated to be extremely high, and the production of the aircraft themselves (both civil and military purposes) is still significantly behind demand ( "Why the Rooks did not arrive", "HBO", 06/29.23).
The use of cybernetic planning tools in the AON sector will ensure its development at an accelerated pace with strict control of personnel training, resource use planning, pace and quality of output. The development of AON, along with the production of unmanned aerial vehicles for various purposes, will create tens of thousands of new jobs, will allow for cooperation between hundreds of related enterprises, restore existing and build new airfields in hard-to-reach places in the country where AON aircraft are the only mode of transport.
CYBERECONOMICS AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
A cybernetic planned economy is an effective economic state system in which material resources are distributed in accordance with a centralized economic plan calculated by a cybernetic management system using artificial intelligence (AI), "big data" and methods of analyzing and forecasting economic situations.
According to Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Sergey Glazyev, "we should think about our position in the modern world hybrid war. It is impossible to survive in it without a miraculous transformation of power and society. It is necessary to mobilize political will, awaken the national spirit, and activate the productive elite."
The XX International Conference "Public Administration in New Geopolitical and Geo–economic Conditions", held at Moscow State University on November 29 - December 8, 2023, was devoted to the discussion of critically important management problems for our country.
Under the guidance of Elena Veduta, Doctor of Economics, Head of the Department of Strategic Planning and Economic Policy at the Faculty of Public Administration of Moscow State University, a section "Cybernetic Economics as an alternative to a market economy" was held within the framework of the conference.
A number of well-known Russian specialists, scientists from China, India, Italy, and the United Kingdom took part in the work of the section. Russian scientists spoke about the importance of strategic economic planning as a necessary tool for the development of the country and national security in wartime conditions, as the basis of a systematic approach to overcoming challenges and threats in the economy.
An analysis of the factors of the global hybrid war in the context of economics shows that without a transition to a cybernetic planned economy and to economic management using artificial intelligence (AI), which solves operational planning tasks, it is impossible to build an effective strategy for Russia's confrontation with new challenges and threats of our time.
CONCLUSIONS FOR RUSSIA
The objective function of the MGV strategy is to bring the economy of Russia as a target country to a predetermined level set by the authors of the scenario. In the global hybrid war launched by the United States, European countries and the European Union as a whole are cut off from Russia and have become donors to the United States, as in the two world wars of the last century.
In the center of Europe, the forces of the United States and Great Britain managed to organize a proxy war against Russia, turn Ukraine into a springboard for armed aggression by all NATO countries against Russia, and arrest Russian assets in a number of states. A wide-ranging political, diplomatic and economic blockade of Russia is being carried out. We successfully manage to counter it by strengthening our Armed Forces, developing the Russian defense industry, pursuing a flexible foreign policy, and organizing multi-format cooperation with friendly states within the framework of the SCO, BRICS, ASEAN and on a bilateral basis.
An important addition should be the introduction of forms and methods of cybernetic management of the economy. Such a step will allow Russia to seize the strategic initiative – along with the introduction of a new global settlement currency, building its own Eurasian pricing system for exchange-traded goods and infrastructure for payment and settlement operations, stopping capital outflow to unfriendly countries, creating its own registries, ratings, and digital tools.
Taking into account the global scope and intercivilizational nature of the MGW, the curricula of Russian universities should be decisively restructured to provide personnel capable of working in new geo-economic conditions. The adaptation concerns both primarily technical and a number of humanities ( "Physics and lyrics" on the fronts of hybrid war", "HBO", 07.12.23).
It is necessary to give a systematic character and ensure state support for the implementation of the integration of the "Hybrid War" course supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation into the curricula of universities, in which it is necessary to focus on the problems of economic transformation and information warfare.
There is a general conclusion based on the results of the above-mentioned conference at Moscow State University and a number of other forums, many scientific articles in their projection on economic management issues. It's time to end the discord and vague formulations. It is time to train personnel, concentrate scientific efforts and ideas on developing strategies and tactics for introducing elements of the cybernetic economy, and forming a roadmap for this multi-stage and lengthy process. It's time to work out the mechanisms of interaction between the state and private business. It is time to create an interdepartmental body to coordinate the processes of transition to cybernetic management of our country's economy.
Alexander Bartosz
Alexander Alexandrovich Bartosh is a corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences, an expert of the League of Military Diplomats.