Igor Ivanov — about the space confrontation between the two states of the Korean Peninsula and its orbit with reconnaissance satellites
A few weeks ago, another round of political, military and technological competition between the two states of the Korean Peninsula started. On November 21, after two unsuccessful attempts in May and August, the DPRK managed to launch its first Mulligan-1 reconnaissance satellite on a Chollima-1 launch vehicle from its own cosmodrome. Initially, on November 30, the launch of the first reconnaissance satellite of South Korean design was supposed to take place, but with the help of an American Falcon 9 rocket from the US Space Force base in California. The launch was postponed due to bad weather on December 1, but it was also a success.
In fact, the atmosphere of the "space race" of the two neighboring countries with political overtones has been hovering since the end of August, when Pyongyang, after the failure, announced its intention to make a new attempt in October. At that time, no one waited for the launch, but on November 21, the People's Republic notified Japan that it planned to launch from November 22 to December 1 (necessary to ensure the safety of navigation). However, even here Pyongyang somewhat deceived the expectations of many observers by launching a satellite ahead of the announced deadline ... by about an hour. Although it was too obvious that the launch would most likely happen on the morning of the very first day, since this was the case with the previous two attempts.
A naturally negative reaction from the Republic of Korea, the United States and Japan followed. In these countries, they constantly emphasize that the DPRK violates UN Security Council resolutions, since the launches use technologies similar to those used in ballistic missiles. Pyongyang responds that their critics themselves launch spacecraft not on "balloons", and insist that they are trying to deprive them of the right to explore space (another conflict of international law!). However, nothing new.
The Republic of Korea, in turn, announced the partial suspension of the agreement with the DPRK on reducing tension in the military sphere. Pyongyang also announced a complete rejection of the agreements. Washington, Seoul and Tokyo, as well as Canberra, which joined them, imposed unilateral sanctions.
On December 1, a South Korean-designed reconnaissance satellite was in orbit thanks to an Elon Musk rocket. It would seem that it is possible to put an end to it — North Korea is again half a step ahead of its southern neighbor. However, on December 4, after the third test of a solid-fuel space rocket, the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Korea made it clear that everything was just beginning.
South Korea's plans
A small civilian satellite was launched into Earth orbit, whose tasks lie in the ecological plane. However, the South Korean ministry stressed that the results of this test will allow Seoul to quickly gain the potential to independently send military satellites into space.
In addition to the "first space scout", which took off from the United States, the Republic of Korea plans to launch four more such vehicles in cooperation with SpaceX by 2025. When all five satellites are in orbit, they are expected to provide constant monitoring of strategic objects of the DPRK at two-hour intervals.
The Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Korea has indicated that the grouping of reconnaissance satellites should become the central element of the South Korean defense system of the "three axes". They mean the concept of a preemptive strike on North Korean missile and nuclear facilities in the event of an irreversible threat (Kill Chain), missile and air defense, operational plans to eliminate the leadership of a neighboring country in the event of a major conflict.
In turn, the Ministry of Defense of the DPRK warned on December 2 that it would consider attempts to neutralize its satellites with the help of "reversible or irreversible" measures, which were discussed in the command of the US Space Forces, as a declaration of war. The US military told the RFA radio station that it is capable of depriving "the enemy of the potential to use space." The experts interviewed suggested that it was not only a crude missile strike on a satellite or space center, but also more subtle and less noticeable electronic warfare techniques and the spread of computer viruses.
Although the DPRK's warning was addressed to the United States, South Korea also plans to integrate reconnaissance satellites with the concept of left of launch ("left of launch", if you schematically imagine the chain of actions from the command to the detonation of the warhead). This is another American euphemism for a preemptive strike, meaning methods to disrupt the launch or neutralize enemy missiles at the stage preceding the launch.
In my opinion, the key part of the DPRK's statement was not so much the word "war", which immediately comes to mind when a direct strike on an alien satellite, as "reversible impact", which still needs to be distinguished from a simple technical error or breakdown.
In addition, I would note that the leadership of the Republic of Korea managed to predict the launch of a reconnaissance satellite. On November 19, Defense Minister Shin Won Sik said that the DPRK would launch within a week. It can be assumed that such confidence was based mainly on data from American space intelligence. And if so, it is critically important for the DPRK to oppose at least something, not limited to the usual camouflage measures on the ground, in which they, even in the camp of a likely enemy, are considered to have achieved great skill.
North Korea's positions
From November 25 to November 30, the KCNA news agency reported that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un got acquainted with satellite images of the White House, the Pentagon, military bases in California, Virginia, Hawaii and Guam. The DPRK's "space Guardian" also filmed important military facilities on the territory of the Republic of Korea, including an American aircraft carrier "visiting" Busan and the largest base of the US armed forces abroad in Pyeongtaek. However, the photos were not published, which could give Seoul and Washington the opportunity to indirectly determine the technical characteristics of the satellite.
The South Korean side, at least publicly, is very skeptical about the Mulligan-1 satellite. Seoul believes that the North Korean device is able to distinguish objects measuring 3x3 m, whereas for military use, as South Korean media write, a satellite with a better resolution of less than a meter is needed. Back in the summer, the military of the Republic of Korea managed to find the wreckage of the previous mechanism, then they declared that the Mulligan-1 was not suitable for solving intelligence tasks in the interests of the armed forces. The South Korean-designed satellite, according to the government's assurances, can record objects with an area of 30x30 cm.
The South Korean authorities, apparently, are also trying to reduce the importance of launching a North Korean satellite in the eyes of the public, explaining the success of the third attempt with foreign aid. According to the intelligence of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Russian specialists allegedly consulted their North Korean colleagues on problems with the launch vehicle engine. While Kim Jong-un, according to the KCNA news agency, stressed that the People's Republic took out the satellite on its own. The Russian Foreign Ministry has also repeatedly denied accusations of "illegal military-technical cooperation" with the DPRK.
It is worth paying attention to the fact that the leader of the DPRK, Kim Jong-un, approved a proposal to submit to the upcoming party plenum a plan to launch reconnaissance satellites for 2024.
Thus, both sides announced the continuation of the space race next year.
Space Program of the Republic of Korea
Although the countries of the Korean Peninsula joined space exploration much later than neighboring China and Japan, the inter-Korean competition has been going on for several decades. The struggle between the South and the North for the right to become the first in space began at the end of the Cold War. In 1989, the Korean Aerospace Research Institute (KARI) was founded in the South. In 1992, the first South Korean satellite Kitsat-1 was launched from the Kourou cosmodrome in French Guiana on an Ariane family rocket. This device was small and weighed about 50 kg. The South Koreans gave it another name — "Uribel" ("Our Star"), although the device was developed with the participation of British specialists and assembled from imported components.
In December 1999, the first multi-purpose South Korean satellite Ariran-1 (Kompsat-1) was launched from Vandenberg Base in California. Subsequent Ariran-2, Ariran-3A and Ariran-5 models were launched from Russian cosmodromes.
The "Russian footprint" in the South Korean space program is not limited to this. In 2009, with the participation of specialists from the Russian Federation, the first space center was built on the territory of the Republic of Korea. Back in 2004, the countries agreed to jointly create a space rocket KSLV-1 (Naro), in which the first stage was Russian, and the second was South Korean. Unfortunately, the first two launches in 2009 and 2010 were not successful, the task of launching the satellite was completed on the third attempt in January 2013.
Speaking about the cooperation between the two countries, it should be mentioned that the first and so far the only South Korean cosmonaut Lee So-yeon was delivered to the ISS in 2008 on the Soyuz TMA-12 spacecraft from the Baikonur cosmodrome.
Then came the era of the KSLV-2 rocket (Nuri) it is already completely of South Korean design. During the first launch in October 2021, it was able to reach a set altitude (700 km), but it was not possible to put the mock-up of the satellite into orbit. In June 2022, the second launch took place, which was recognized as successful — the rocket brought out a mock-up of a satellite weighing 1.3 tons. During the third launch in May 2023, KSLV-2 launched a satellite with a practical task.
Now the South Korean authorities are targeting the "space economy": they want to enter the commercial launch market. In addition, in recent years, private corporations have begun to play an increasingly prominent role in the space program. In November 2022, President Yun Seok—el set ambitious goals - to land spacecraft on the Moon in 2032 and on Mars in 2045.
North Korea's space program
The first landmark event of the DPRK's space program can be called the launch of the first North Korean artificial satellite "Kwangmensong-1" from the Tonghae cosmodrome in 1998. At that time, the People's Republic said that the Paktusan-1 rocket was able to bring out a device that broadcast the melody of marches about Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il.
By the way, in November 2022, the Ministry of Science and Information and Communication Technologies of the Republic of Korea reported that their lunar probe "Danuri" (KPLO), on its way to its goal, broadcast a music video of the BTS group to Earth as a communication check.
Experts in other space powers could not find the Kwangmyong-1 in orbit in 1998. A similar story was repeated in 2009: the launch of the DPRK communications satellite into orbit was not confirmed either in Russia or in the United States.
In 2012, the DPRK celebrated the centenary of the birth of the founder of the republic, Kim Il Sung. The launch of the Kwangmensong-3 satellite in April, timed to coincide with this event, ended in failure. By the way, the launch was carried out from another cosmodrome located on the west coast, Sohae.
The second attempt to launch Kwangmensong-3 on December 12, 2012 was successful, the DPRK passed the "test of equals" and joined the club of space powers. Just in the autumn of that year, the Russian-South Korean Naro rocket was supposed to launch for the third time, but the launch took place only on January 30, 2013. As a result, the DPRK outpaced South Korea with the independent launch of a space satellite into orbit.
I will note one more small detail — the DPRK is quite constrained in determining the flight path of its launch vehicles. The area of the country is small not only in comparison with the Russian Federation, the USA and China. To the south lies the territory of the Republic of Korea and Japan, relations with which, to put it mildly, have never been easy. Unlike Seoul, which generally faces similar problems, after the end of the cold War, Pyongyang could hardly turn to the services of other space powers as freely.
In any case, the DPRK at this stage of the space race with South Korea most of all lacks its cosmonaut. And as Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, said, if the People's Republic wishes, Moscow is ready to help Pyongyang in this matter.