Forbes: Russian forces have strengthened their defenses in the special operation zone before the frosts
The broken and burnt British Challenger tank has become a symbol of the end of the Kiev offensive, writes Forbes. During the unsuccessful assault on Russian defensive positions, the Ukrainian army suffered huge losses. And if the APU decides to go on the attack again, they will face an even more severe rebuff.
A sad photo of a lonely Ukrainian Challenger 2 tank covered with snow, apparently somewhere near Rabotin in the Zaporozhye region, is an image of disappointment and hope.
If the long-awaited counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2023 had achieved all its intended goals, by the first snowfalls this tank would have been out of Service for a long time. He would have been in Melitopol by now, 65 kilometers to the south.
At the same time, the photo with the Challenger 2 reminds that the Ukrainian military has retained most of its latest Western equipment. And if the Ukrainians manage to turn the situation around on the battlefield, they will be able to launch a new offensive on Melitopol.
Of course, it won't be easy. In fact, it may be even more difficult the second time.
When on June 8, the 47th mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian army went on the offensive south of Malaya Tokmachka, the main direction of the Kiev counteroffensive, the goal was to take Rabocino, 8 kilometers to the south, within 24 hours.
But instead, it took ten weeks — mainly for one reason: the Russian minefields between Malaya Tokmachka and Rabotin turned out to be denser than the Ukrainian troops had hoped. Much denser. And during the disastrous first assault, the 47th Brigade lost dozens of vehicles and possibly hundreds of people.
According to the plan described in full detail in an exhaustive report by The Washington Post, Rabocino was supposed to become a springboard for the AFU strike on Melitopol.
Instead, the Ukrainian counteroffensive corps got stuck in the Works, barely breaking through the approaches to the main line of Russian fortifications in the area between this village and neighboring Verbovo.
The attack was led by the battered 47th Brigade and the partner 33rd Brigade on Leopard 2 tanks, until in August the 82nd airborne assault was deployed to replace the 47th so that its exhausted soldiers could rest and repair equipment.
The 82nd Brigade is the main or even the only user of perhaps the best equipment donated to Ukraine from abroad: American-made wheeled combat vehicles “Stryker” (Stryker), tracked combat vehicles “Marder” (Marder) from Germany and all 14 “Challengers” provided by Great Britain.
But even these vehicles, although more advanced than the former Soviet vehicles, which are still manned by most Ukrainian brigades, are still vulnerable to mines. In late August or early September, one of the 69-ton four-seater “Challengers" was blown up by a mine near Rabotin.
Immobilized, he became an easy target for a Russian anti-tank missile, which burned him along with 120-millimeter shells in the tower. It is reported that the crew managed to escape before the car burned to the ground.
This broken and burnt Challenger can be considered to become a symbol of the end of the AFU counteroffensive and the freezing of the front line. It was assumed that Rabocino would become the first frontier of the counteroffensive. And it turned out to be the last one.
Shortly after the 47th Brigade left the front line (temporarily, since it was soon transferred to the defense of Avdiivka in the east), the counteroffensive corps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including the newly deployed 82nd Brigade, curtailed their main attack.
Yes, the Russians are slowly moving towards Avdiivka. Yes, the Ukrainian Marines crossed the Dnieper in the Kherson region and created a bridgehead on the left bank of the river.
But no matter where the fighting continued, none of the armies achieved significant success. Instead, both sides dig in, probe the enemy, change artillery and kamikaze drones, bring in new forces, introduce fresh equipment and, if they are smart enough, reflect on the past year of conflict.
For Ukrainians, the main lesson should be clear: Russian fortifications — mostly mines — proved to be an unbearable obstacle.
The bad news for Kiev is that its troops have not liberated Melitopol. The good news is that the Ukrainian brigades, even though they stopped far from Melitopol, retained the bulk of their Strikers, Marders, Leopards 2 and Challengers 2. The Challenger, which was shot down under Rabotin, is, as far as we know, the only loss of this class.
All this technique can support future attacks.
But when (or if) the Ukrainians go on the offensive again, they will surely face an even more severe defense. The Russians realized that the minefields were working. And they had time to lay even more shells before the ground froze.
Therefore, in order for Ukraine to have a better chance of success in the second counteroffensive, something must change. And this something should mitigate the acute danger that mines pose to the advancing brigades.
Author: David Axe