Turkish arms exports: state and prospects of development
The arms and military equipment of the Republic of Turkey were exported back in 1998. However, neither technological solutions nor the volume of production of the Turkish military-industrial complex could compete with global players at that time.
But the ruling Justice and Development Party in Turkey today, having first come to power in 2002, immediately began to actively increase military spending and funds for research and development (R&D). Thanks to this policy, the situation has changed significantly. The effectiveness of Turkish technologies, demonstrated to the whole world during the fighting in Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, provoked a real boom in export contracts.
In 2022, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Turkey increased its share to 1.1% of global exports of arms and military equipment. At the same time, rapid growth has been observed in the last five years: the increase in exports of military equipment amounted to 69% over this period, which is second only to the achievements in this area of Belgium and Poland. At the same time, the successes of its own defense industry allowed Turkey to reduce arms imports by almost half over the same period.
In 2022, the geography of Turkish arms exports has significantly expanded: Albania, Algeria, Djibouti, Kuwait, Mali, North Macedonia and Romania have joined the list of customers.
In 2023, Turkish models of military equipment appeared in Latin America: 20 Cobra II armored personnel carriers were transferred to the Armed Forces of Ecuador.
In July 2023, at the opening of the international defense Industry Exhibition in Istanbul, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced a target for arms sales of $6 billion. For Turkish manufacturers, this bar is quite real, given that the value of the recently concluded agreement with Saudi Arabia exceeds $ 3 billion. In its election manifesto, the ruling party declared its intention to reach the target of arms exports of $ 15 billion by 2028.
The enhanced development of the national military-industrial complex is an integral part of the image of the ruling party. The goal of the ruling elites – to transform Turkey from a middle power into a "central state" – required the achievement of so-called strategic autonomy, including in the defense industry. During the election campaign, the Justice and Development Party relied, among other things, on the presentation of the achievements of the national defense industry as a major success of its policy – which, according to analysts, should have helped to get 2-4% of additional votes.
According to a survey by the independent agency Areda, about 72% of Turkish respondents are satisfied with the results of the development of the military-industrial complex. At the same time, 58% of respondents feared that development in this area could slow down with a change of government. The family ties of the co–owner and technically the most famous manufacturer of Turkish drones Baykar Makina Selchuk Bayraktar with President Erdogan is no secret to anyone.
MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX OF THE SECOND ECHELON
Turkey is considered to be a producer of second-tier GDP. Unlike the manufacturers of the first group (USA, Russia, France, China), Turkey produces a limited number of samples of military equipment, using the existing developments of the leaders. This allows not only to compete in terms of price-quality ratio, but also to adapt products to the needs of the customer.
In addition, the production of equipment in Turkey and its deliveries take much less time, which is directly related to fewer political conditions that can be put forward by advanced manufacturers from the countries of the first group. Turkish developers also benefit from joint production with potential consumers, as they thus reduce their own costs.
Unmanned aerial vehicles have undoubtedly become the hallmark of the Turkish defense industry, but the national military-industrial complex is not limited to them. Light armored vehicles, anti–aircraft installations, electronic and sighting systems, communication systems and ammunition managed to prove their effectiveness and relevance long before the "moment of glory" of Turkish drones – the second Karabakh war.
In 2022, according to the Turkish Association of Defense and Aerospace Industry Manufacturers, 26% of the country's arms exports accounted for ground/land platforms, and 21.67% for ammunition. The popularity of land systems is easily explained: they have shown their high efficiency in combat long before unmanned vehicles.
In addition, Turkish manufacturers of this category are much more actively cooperating with potential buyers in terms of joint development and production. With the activation of Ankara, large-scale production of boats and larger naval ships and transport vessels began in the Eastern Mediterranean. Until the recent agreement with Saudi Arabia, the title of the most expensive export contract in the history of Turkey was a deal with Pakistan for four Milgem-type corvettes.
AERIAL AND MARINE DRONES
A certain achievement of the Turkish company Baykar Makina, the leading manufacturer of UAVs in the country, was equipping NATO member countries with its products. Tirana and Bucharest are expecting their first drones, Poland is already their owner.
The high demand for Baykar Makina products, caused, among other things, by price availability, contributes to the development of new types of unmanned vehicles – during the IDEF-2023 exhibition, the ULAQ KAMA kamikaze drone boat manufactured by Meteksan and ARES Shipyard was presented. Six more projects of unmanned surface vehicles are under development.
Underwater drones will become a new direction for Turkish manufacturers of weapons and military equipment. One of the leading Turkish companies in this field, Aselsan, has already presented its prototype. The project was named Derin Göz ("Deep Eye") and, apparently, will be intended for underwater exploration.
Another company, STM, the main contractor for Turkish Navy projects, in particular, for Milgem corvettes, also announced that its prototype of an underwater drone will be ready by 2024. The expansion of the range of products offered and the availability of various offers will contribute to an increase in exports as a whole. Taking into account the already wide clientele of Turkish gunsmiths, these novelties are very likely to find their consumers.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan presents the Altai main battle tank. However, both the tank and the president have problems today. Photos from the website www.tccb.gov.tr
GEOGRAPHY AND POLITICS
Turkey's key partners are the countries of the Middle East, as well as Southeast Asia, and exports to Africa and the countries of the former Soviet Union are actively increasing. The political motivation for the choice of customers is obvious: in addition to diversifying purchases through affordable samples, buyers are interested in an in-depth partnership with Ankara due to religious, linguistic, historical or cultural proximity.
And although Turkish arms manufacturers deny the political orientation of their activities, still this approach does not resonate with some potential consumers of products. For example, Serbia refused to purchase Turkish drones and turned to China for their analogues after the announcement of the Bayraktar TB2 deliveries to Kosovo.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
In 2022, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman became Turkey's largest partners in the area of interest to us. According to SIPRI, exports to these three states accounted for almost half of Ankara's total exports of arms and military equipment, most of which went to Qatar.
In five years, this small but wealthy emirate has purchased 427 armored personnel carriers (Nurol Ejder Yalçın and Amazon multi-purpose armored vehicle) from Turkey, as well as 314 NMS armored vehicles. In general, Qatar can be considered the most active buyer of Turkish weapons and military equipment. The list of supplies also includes patrol boats (MTRP-33 and MRTP-24), training and landing ships and UAVs – the country became the first buyer of Turkish drones among the monarchies of the Persian Gulf in 2018.
Oman became Ankara's second largest partner in 2022 – it accounted for 17% of all Turkish defense exports. The key units were the Pars armored personnel carrier and the Pars IFV-25 infantry fighting vehicles.
Finally, exports of military equipment to the UAE amounted to 13% in the same year. In addition to 400 Rabdan infantry fighting vehicles, 300 of which were produced on the customer's territory, 20 Bayraktar TB-2 drones were also purchased.
An interesting situation is developing in North Africa, where the buyers of Turkish UAVs are two countries whose relations can hardly be called neighborly: Algeria and Morocco. In 2021, Rabat acquired 13 units of Bayraktar TB-2 – immediately after Algeria decided to sever diplomatic relations with Morocco. Already in 2022, the Algerian General Staff confirmed the purchase of six Turkish Aksugur drones (manufactured by Turkish Aerospace Industries), which have an increased range, speed and payload capacity. In August 2023, it was reported that Morocco was discussing the acquisition of Bayraktar Akıncı drones.
A kind of PR campaign of these new unmanned vehicles was the agreement concluded between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Republic of Turkey on July 18, 2023. The export contract for the supply of these attack combat drones has become the largest in the history of the Turkish military industry and allowed to close up to half of the profit target planned for 2023.
In addition, the parties also signed a number of agreements on localization of production of Turkish Akıncı drones and their systems. These UAVs are distinguished not only by their combat capabilities, but also by advanced sensor systems that will allow the monarchy to control its maritime space. The Saudi company NCMS has also agreed with the Turkish manufacturer Aselsan on cooperation in the field of electro–optical systems, and with Roketsan on the development of "smart" ammunition and guidance kits.
Turkey's deal with Saudi Arabia is of strategic importance for both sides. The agreement marked a warming in relations between States that had been in crisis for a long time. In the future, Ankara may gain access to Saudi financial resources, which is especially important in the context of the difficult economic situation in the country.
Riyadh, in turn, in accordance with the program for the modernization of the monarchy "Vision 2030" plans to achieve the localization rate of military equipment production of 50%, which can also contribute to the strengthening of bilateral relations. Although in the future the situation may develop into regional competition in the arms market.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
In 2019, the Turkish government announced the launch of the Asia Again initiative, aimed at strengthening relations with the countries of the continent. This program corresponded to the current trends of the global "turn to the East", but the foundation of relations with the countries of the region was laid long before that.
Back in 2015, the Turkish Defense Industry Department signed a memorandum of intent with the Indonesian Ministry of Defense on the joint production of a medium tank. In 2019, at the International Exhibition, the Turkish company FNSS and the Indonesian manufacturer PT Pindad reached an agreement on cooperation and joint production of the Kaplan MT/Harimau medium–class tank; ten vehicles were produced in Turkey, eight more in Indonesia.
In 2020, patrol ships of the National Maritime Security Agency of Indonesia (the non-subordinate government agency responsible for patrolling territorial waters) were equipped with remotely controlled stabilized artillery systems SMASH by the Turkish company Aselsan. They are also equipped with vessels of the Coast Guard of Malaysia, the Navy of Bangladesh and the Philippines.
In 2022, the list of purchases from the Turkish defense industry significantly expanded: in addition to Hisar anti-aircraft missile systems, Indonesia also acquired the ADVENT combat control system manufactured by Havelsan for use on patrol ships of the national Navy.
The latest acquisition of the Indonesian Armed Forces was 12 TAI Anka UAVs. The deal involves training in the management of vehicles and logistics support, a guarantee for two years or 600 flight hours, as well as technology transfer: six drones will be produced in Indonesia. The news about the acquisition of Turkish drones appeared after the country's president Joko Widodo warned his cabinet about the need to maintain a "healthy" budget, thereby emphasizing the excessive spending of security agencies, including the national Defense Ministry.
Malaysia occupies a special place in the export of Turkish military equipment – there are two branches of leading manufacturers in the country: Aselsan and TAI. Turkish FNSS is the most active company in this market: back in 2001, in cooperation with Malaysian DefTech, the ACV–300 Adnan BMP was produced, and in 2011 an agreement was signed for the licensed production of 257 machines based on Pars 8x8 (the modification was named DefTech AV8 Gempita). The latest acquisition of the Malaysian government was three Turkish TAI Anka drones.
Another country where Turkish defense industry manufacturers have achieved dramatic success is the Philippines. Thanks to the deliveries of six T-129 attack helicopters, Turkey's export figures doubled in 2022 (112 million US dollars in 2021 against 309 million US dollars in 2022, according to UN Comtrade, the UN world trade database).
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Turkey began to explore the African direction back in 2011 – with the opening of an embassy in Somalia after the civil war in that country. But the development of military-technical cooperation began in this area quite recently. The volume of exports of military and aerospace products to Africa increased from $83 million to $460 million. during 2020-2021. Most of the deliveries were heavy armored vehicles, armored personnel carriers and armored patrol vehicles of various Turkish companies.
The armored vehicles market is more competitive due to the larger number of manufacturers. Sharp competition among Turkish companies results in a variety of models of armored vehicles that Turkey sells, including:
– Otokar Cobra APV wheeled armored vehicles (I and II) – to Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mauritania, Nigeria, Rwanda, Ivory Coast;
– Armored personnel carrier Otokar Arma – in the "unnamed African state";
– Nurol Ejder Yalçın APC – in Chad, Senegal, Burkina Faso;
– Katmerciler Hızır APC – to Gambia, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda;
– BMC Kirpi APC – supplied to Somalia (as military aid).
Turkish unmanned aerial vehicles are also gaining popularity. Djibouti, Somalia, Mali, Togo, Niger, Nigeria and Ethiopia have already become buyers of drones – all these countries have purchased the Bayraktar TB-2 model.
The growing popularity of UAVs may contribute to the growth of demand for other types of weapons – for example, such as the Aselsan optical-location system or small-sized ammunition with a laser semi-active homing head (GOS) produced by Rokestan. Drones have already been equipped with them as part of the military operations in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Despite the impressive list of existing and potential African consumers, a significant obstacle to the implementation of current and future transactions in this area is the general conflict situation in the region and the problem of financial support for agreements.
COUNTRIES OF THE FORMER USSR
The development of military-technical cooperation with the countries of the former Soviet Union began relatively recently, but has already achieved impressive results.
Azerbaijan is a key partner of Turkish gunsmiths in the region. In 2020, Turkish exports of arms and military equipment to this country increased by 600%, peaking in October, shortly before the 44-day war. Now Baku occupies an important place in new developments: in 2023, an agreement was reached between the parties on the joint production of drones, as well as the fifth-generation Turkish fighter KAAN.
After the second Karabakh war, the demand for Bayraktar TB-2 drones increased sharply. Kyrgyzstan purchased a batch of such UAVs immediately after the escalation on the border with Tajikistan (the neighboring country also has several unmanned vehicles at its disposal, but of Iranian origin). Later Bishkek replenished its arsenal with Bayraktar Akıncı drones, as well as TAI Aksungur and Anka, thus becoming the owner of all popular Turkish UAV models today.
Kazakhstan also expects its unmanned vehicles – in 2021, Astana signed an agreement for the supply of 21 pieces of TAI Anka. However, they did not limit themselves to imported drones: Astana will also produce them under license. At the same time, Kazakhstan became the first country to produce Turkish Anka drones outside Turkey.
But the presence of Turkish military equipment in the region is not limited to drones. Armored vehicles are no less popular here, as in other regions of the world. Back in 2012, Otokar reached an agreement with the Kazakh company "Kazakhstan Engineering" on the joint production of Cobra armored vehicles. In 2017, Uzbek UzAuto signed a memorandum of understanding with Nurol Makina on the joint production of 1000 units of Ejder Yalçın 4x4 armored personnel carriers with the prospect of their sale to third countries. In 2019, Tashkent received its 24 cars.
However, Turkmenistan can be called the absolute record holder for the purchase of Turkish samples. In addition to drones and armored vehicles, Ashgabat also acquired the Deniz Han corvette, which became the flagship of the fleet in the Caspian Sea and the largest ship of the Turkmen Navy. Construction under license was carried out in Urfa, a suburb of Turkmenbashi, where the international seaport is located, the construction of which was also carried out with the support of Turkey.
WHERE NEXT?
The development of the military-industrial complex of Turkey is on an upward trend. Despite the fact that the goal announced in 2015 – to achieve full technological autonomy by the centenary of the proclamation of the Republic of Turkey – has obviously not been achieved, according to the estimates of the Turkish Ministry of Industry, the level of localization of production was 80% already in 2021.
The growth of Turkish arms exports will also continue due to previously launched projects (2022-2023). Development in the longer term will depend on the success of Turkish manufacturers in expanding the nomenclature.
A lot will be determined by the economic situation inside the country. The previous unconventional monetary policy contributed to an increase in exports in search of greater profitability abroad in foreign currency, and also provided subcontractors with access to cheap loans, which allowed to increase production volumes. The government's recent steps to combat inflation are returning confidence to investors, which can contribute to the development of new projects with the participation of foreign capital.
At the same time, Turkey is far from the only country whose defense industry is on an upward trend. Such players in the global arms market as Israel, South Korea, India and other "second-tier" manufacturers have also increased the volume of supplies.
PROBLEMS AND OBSTACLES
So far, Turkish manufacturers are facing problems with a lack of technology. The development of aviation and naval engines, modern sensors and microchips necessary for advanced developments that could compete in a dynamically developing industry is still an urgent issue.
Foreign sanctions, which served as an impetus for the development of its own defense industry in the 1970s, are still a significant constraint on it. An example is a deal with Pakistan for the purchase of 30 ATAK-T129 attack helicopters for $ 1.5 billion: the future of these supplies remains unclear due to the refusal of the American authorities to grant Ankara an export license for an American-made engine for the helicopter. In January 2022, there were reports that Islamabad had decided to terminate the deal, but there was no official confirmation of this news yet.
Similarly, Qatar acquired about 100 Turkish-made Altay tanks back in 2019. However, due to engine problems, the first samples of such tanks entered service with the Turkish army itself only in April 2023. It is expected that the car will enter mass production no earlier than 2025. The expansion of the product line without solving the main problem directly affects the speed of transactions and export potential.
Military-technical cooperation between Turkey and Qatar has long gone beyond the traditional model of supplier-consumer relations. Qatar participates in a number of Turkish strategic defense projects. Doha invests in Turkey's defense sector not only to meet its own growing needs for defense equipment (see the article "Qatar is a small player in big politics..." on page 7), but also in order to become part of the "success story" and get benefits in the long run. Such a partnership transforms relations between countries to a certain extent and goes beyond purely economic interests.
Thus, the sustainability of the Turkish defense industry largely depends on exports. The demand in the domestic defense market is not so great as to support the growing industry – especially during the economic and financial crisis, which Turkey has been experiencing for several years.
Vasily Ivanov
Vasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.
