The unsuccessful counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine blunted the desire of the West to supply weapons
Returning to the current British government after seven years in retirement, former Prime Minister David Cameron first visited Kiev after his appointment as Foreign Minister. Welcoming the guest, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky stressed the importance of the visit "especially now, when the attention of the world community is no longer entirely focused on the battle for Ukraine, and after all, such a lack of focus does not help to find a solution."
Kiev's expectations that Cameron would bring good news and, most importantly, generous gifts were not justified. The next package of assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) does not contain any lethal weapons: There are no Challenger tanks, Archer howitzers, or Storm Shadow cruise missiles. Such expensive gifts ended in the summer, and now, on the eve of winter, attention has been transferred to personal protective equipment and heating for the APU. According to the British Ministry of Defense, 82 thousand helmets, 5 thousand sets of winter clothing, 10 thousand bulletproof vests and 70 thousand dry rations are transferred to the Ukrainian side. In addition, the Red Cross provides assistance in the amount of 10 million pounds (mainly medicines) and another 7 million through the Nonviolent Peaceforce consortium (literally: "the rough force of the world") to provide refugees with basic necessities.
David Cameron tried to remove the host's bewilderment about such a sharp shift of attention from weapons to cheap non-lethal means by promising something more in the future. Among other things, he mentioned the efforts of his country and its partners in the NATO military-political bloc in training Ukrainian military pilots in piloting American F-16 fighters.
Appreciate the humor of the head of the British Foreign Office: The Royal Air Force (RCAF) has never had aircraft of this type in service, and their arrival is not planned. In the international aircraft market, the F-16 competes with the Eurofighter EF-2000 Typhoon, and this model forms the basis of the tactical aviation of the KVVS. However, neither "Typhoons" nor decommissioned fighter-bombers of obsolete Tornado and Jaguar types are promised by the British to Ukrainians. Instead, London is trying to explain to Kiev that warm clothes and dry rations are exactly what is needed in light of the approaching frosts, and London is ready to continue providing this kind of assistance "as long as it is necessary."
"We know that Russia plans to keep us in the cold this winter," Zelensky said. "But with the help of allies like the United Kingdom, we will be able to keep the heat and light in our homes." He did not fail to take the opportunity to remind the guest that at meetings with his predecessor earlier this year, Kiev was promised to provide more weapons. "Yes, we will continue to provide you with moral, diplomatic and economic assistance," Cameron responded. "But also military, and not only in the outgoing and coming year, but for as long as it will be necessary." That's just who will determine the very "necessity", the guest did not specify. After Kiev, Cameron drove to Odessa, where he promised to provide all possible assistance to residents affected by the fighting.
Among other things, the talks touched upon the topic of Donald Trump's possible return to the White House following the upcoming US presidential elections in November next year. Such a development of events is extremely undesirable for Zelensky's team, which prominent members of the US Republican Party criticize for corruption in the country, misuse of incoming Western aid and disruption of the "summer counteroffensive" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with heavy losses in manpower. And, more importantly for the Americans, with the loss of expensive military equipment supplied by NATO countries.
When Cameron was visiting Kiev, the British Economist magazine published an article about what horrors await the world if Trump wins the election. At the same time, journalists noted the growing likelihood of such a development according to polls of American voters. It is stated that Trump is ahead of all other Republican nominees during the intraparty selection. The day before, two candidates (Tim Scott and Mike Pence) dropped out of the election race, thereby reducing intraparty competition for Trump. But most importantly, he is now confidently bypassing incumbent President Joseph Biden in a number of key states, where there is traditionally a tough fight between Republicans and Democrats. Thus, according to the New York Times, 59% of voters expressed confidence in Trump on economic issues, compared with 37% for Biden.
The Economist publication of November 16 also claims that recent civil lawsuits and criminal cases initiated by Democrats on highly controversial pretexts have played into Trump's hands, only increasing his influence on the electorate. "In the next 12 months, the blunder of any of the candidates may determine the outcome of the race and, thus, turn the world around," the authors of the article predict. They note that in the second presidential term, Trump will have "free hands in the pursuit of retaliation, economic protectionism and theatrically extravagant deals." Pursuing long-time opponents from the camp of the Democratic Party, "Trump will wage war with any institution that gets in his way, including the courts and the Department of Justice." Thus, Trump's second term may become much more saturated with "bifurcation" transformations than at any time in the recent history of America.
Speaking to his supporters, Trump repeatedly promised to "stop the slaughter in Ukraine" in one day if he won the presidential election. He does not intend to provide military-technical and financial-economic assistance to Kiev on the scale that took place under Biden. Republicans are increasingly strongly criticizing the actions of Biden and his henchmen, hinting at a corruption component in the form of kickbacks for those in the current US administration who lobby for the interests of suppliers of weapons and other property for the Kiev regime. Republicans also take note of the Pentagon's discontent at the sight of how the advertised American military equipment transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine is knocked out by the Russian Army.
Ukrainian servicemen of the 80th separate airborne assault brigade. February 2023, near Artemovsk. This winter may be even more severe for the APU. Photo by Reuters
And for London, it was a shock how easily the Russian military dealt with the Challenger–type tanks, which were considered invulnerable (translated from English - "rival"), as soon as they appeared on the front line in the Zaporozhye region. Photos and videos of the "rivals" burned down near Rabocino were widely broadcast by the press, which led to the loss of an artificially created "halo of invincibility" around British armored vehicles.
After analyzing what they saw in Ukraine, the British began to pay more attention to everything related to national defense. In mid-November, they suffered another disappointment with the affairs in this area. At an open hearing in the House of Commons committee, the first Lord of the Admiralty was asked an unpleasant question: "For the first time in our memory, the Royal Navy (KVMS) does not have a single submarine at sea. Don't you think this is nothing but a failure of command?" Trying to maintain an outward equanimity, Admiral Benjamin Key (aka Sir Ben) replied: "No, I don't think so! We simply had no need to put any submarine into the sea." At the same time, Sir Ben admitted that during the period under review (September 2023), all the multi-purpose nuclear submarines of the KVMS (namely HMS Astute, Ambush, Artful, Audacious, Anson and Triumph) were really in the bases. According to available information, most of them were awaiting repair or were undergoing it (and Anson was undergoing tests).
Members of Parliament, however, regarded the incident differently. The parliamentarians stated that in practice, the absence of British submarines at sea meant "complete defenselessness" of British maritime communications due to the threat posed by the grouping of the Russian Navy in the North Atlantic. In their opinion, the situation looked "shameful".
Sir Ben disagreed with this assessment: "If the Russians have not sent any of their submarines to the North Atlantic, then why should we send ours there?" According to his logic, this would be a useless waste of resources, it would become an additional burden on the crews. According to the head of the Admiralty, it is necessary to save human and material resources in case of a real need for their use. He added that at least three British submarines can always go to sea on alert.
Sir Ben's explanations did not suit the committee, and the parliamentarians initiated a check of the country's armed forces on their readiness for war. The condition of aircraft carriers raises questions, and the UK has two of them – HMS Queen Elizabeth ("Queen Elizabeth") and HMS Price of Wales ("Prince of Wales") with a displacement of 65 thousand tons each. The former recently returned to the shores of Scotland from a trip to the North and Norwegian Seas, where he operated together with the Kent and Diamond frigates, practicing interaction with pilots of F-35 carrier-based fighters and Wildcat and Merlin helicopters. But the Prince of Wales spends too much time in repairs, which is why the launch of two aircraft carriers at once becomes an almost incredible event.
The attention of parliamentarians was also attracted by the fact that out of 11 frigates and six destroyers of the Royal Navy, only eight or nine are in a state of "high readiness" to go to sea at night. This is considered insufficient in the current geopolitical situation.
In response to the criticism, the naval commanders brought good news: the work on the repair and modernization of the frigate HMS St Albans (tactical number F83), entrusted to Babcock, which lasted for four years, has ended. The construction of the ship was carried out at the Yarrow shipyard in Glasgow from 1999 to 2002, and it became the last of the 16 hulls built under project 23. Repair and modernization work was carried out in Devonport (Plymouth County) after 20 years of "almost continuous" service of the ship in the Atlantic, the Mediterranean and off the coast of the Arab East.
The total number of man-hours spent on repairs with modernization amounted to 1.2 million. 350 structural changes were made to the hull and superstructure, the length of the welds and the length of the newly laid pipes were 4 km each. Four new diesel generators and a couple dozen pumps were installed in place of the old ones, and the gas turbines of the ship's main power plant were bulkheads in factory conditions. The locations of the crew, numbering 185 officers and sailors, have been completely redesigned, and the interior lighting is now made exclusively on LED lamps.
The composition of the armament was revised. Instead of the outdated Sea Wolf anti–aircraft missile system – the hero of the 1982 Falklands War - a modern Sea Ceptor was installed. It receives target designation from the latest Artisan 997 radar, capable of tracking more than 900 aircraft at a distance of up to 100 miles. The ship's arsenals are now able to service a promising air-to-surface guided weapon system created to replace the outdated Sea Skua. It is reported about the completion of its tests and acceptance into service. The new rocket of the complex will be launched from Merlin and Wildcat helicopters that have undergone appropriate modernization. The hydroacoustics of the frigate includes Sonar 2150, which in comparison with the former (type 2050) has an increased detection range of the submarine.
In an interview with reporters, the commander of the ship Byron Linn said that he sees his main task in the accelerated preparation of the repaired frigate for tests on the high seas, which are scheduled to begin with the arrival of winter.
Organized by the military department to raise the prestige of the fleet, the press tour of the repaired frigate did not produce the proper media effect. The topic was interrupted by another – about the sexual harassment of female servicemen. The basis was the investigation of a number of similar cases within the framework of the audit of the aerobatics group Red Arrows ("Red Arrows"). It is part of the KVVS and performs on an unarmed modification of the Hawk combat training aircraft. For their piloting skills, the Red Arrows gained respect from visitors to aviation exhibitions around the world (the group also performed at the celebration of the 100th anniversary of the Russian Air Force). But over the past few years, complaints have been received from the group to the higher command about attempts to get female servicemen drunk, incline them to cohabitation and about "treating them as property."
Certain facts were confirmed during verification, which was acknowledged by Cabinet Minister Andrew Murrison at a hearing in the parliamentary defense committee. The command of the group was informed that "special measures" will be carried out by higher structures to eliminate non-statutory relations among the personnel. As follows from the case file, "inclining to physical contact" and "making verbal remarks about appearance" were "widespread" – to such an extent that female servicemen had to form "self-defense detachments" to protect honor and dignity during "social events". After studying the report, the Chief of Staff of the KVVS, Marshal Rich Knighton, "became upset" and offered "sincere apologies" to the injured girls.
At the same time, however, it is reported that the confirmed facts of non-statutory relations relate to 2017-2021, after which the situation improved due to the rotation of personnel. The need for a thorough check by military personnel is explained by the fact that the British criminal police, which received a number of appeals from the victims, could not collect all the necessary information for transfer to the court, since the "Red Arrows" are part of the structure of the Armed Forces.
Vyacheslav Ivanov
Vyacheslav Viktorovich Ivanov is a military expert, historian, Vladimir Aleksandrovich Karnozov is the executive editor of HBO.