During Freezing Winds 23, the blockade of the Gulf of Finland can be worked out, experts believe
Experts do not exclude that the scenario of the seizure of the Russian islands of Gogland, Bolshoy Tyuters, Powerful and the subsequent blockade of the Gulf of Finland and the Kaliningrad Region can be worked out at the NATO Freezing Winds 23 exercises. The active phase of the maneuvers began on November 22. For the first time, they are led by a new member of the alliance — Finland. A powerful grouping of forces, including over 5,000 military personnel, 30 ships and 20 aircraft, has approached the northwestern borders of Russia. The officially announced scenario of the exercises does not hide the offensive nature of the actions. Alliance soldiers are learning how to mine the Baltic Sea and land naval troops.
On the border, clouds walk gloomily
Difficult weather conditions in the Baltic Sea did not become an obstacle to the start of the active phase of the NATO Freezing Winds 23 ("Icy Winds – 23") exercises. The maneuvers take place less than 200 km from the Russian borders and cover the southern coast of Finland, the so-called Archipelago Sea, the Aland Islands and the western part of the Gulf of Finland.
The naval component of Freezing Winds 23 involves the forces of Sweden, which has not yet become a member of the alliance, as well as ships of the first permanent group of NATO naval forces and the first permanent NATO mine action group. The group consists of 30 combat and auxiliary ships of Germany, the Netherlands, Poland and France. The Freezing Winds 23 air group includes more than 20 aircraft and helicopters. Among them are F-18 fighter jets, French Atlantic-2 maritime patrol aircraft, transport and search helicopters of the permanent naval group of NATO.
According to experts, NATO conducts such exercises in the Baltic Sea region annually, but in 2023 they became clearly aggressive. Before the start of Freezing Winds 23, the Finnish commander of the exercises, Juhapekka Rautava, said that it was no coincidence that the anti-mine ships of the alliance were involved in the maneuvers.
Photo: Global Look Press/imago stock&people
Image source: iz.ru
"The large number of mine—fighting ships participating in the exercises is a demonstration of NATO's interest and commitment to protect the underwater infrastructure," he said.
The close attention to this topic is obviously connected with the situation around the Balticconnector underwater gas pipeline connecting Estonia and Finland. On October 8, it was shut down due to a suspected leak. Later, the Finnish authorities said that investigators had found "external traces" on the seabed near the site of the gas pipeline breakdown. The country's president Sauli Niinisto said that the object could have been damaged as a result of sabotage.
A number of European politicians have made statements about Russia's involvement in the incident. Russian President Vladimir Putin called it "doggie nonsense": he did not even know about the existence of this pipeline, because it is very small in volume.
At the end of October, the Finnish police reported that damage to the Balticconnector gas pipeline was allegedly caused by the anchor of the Newnew Polar Bear vessel under the flag of Hong Kong.
According to experts, hundreds of energy and communication systems of the European Union and NATO pass through the bottom of the Baltic Sea, therefore, in the light of the events around the Balticconnector and the "Northern Streams", the interest of the alliance's military in controlling the surface and underwater situation in the Baltic is absolutely understandable.
— All the naval states of the region, not excluding Russia, have at their disposal underwater sabotage forces and means capable of destroying critical infrastructure facilities at the bottom of the Baltic Sea in the shortest possible time. Moreover, the Russian submarine forces in the region are many times superior in quantity and quality to similar units of NATO countries," an interlocutor in the Russian Defense Ministry told Izvestia.
According to open sources, in the Leningrad and Kaliningrad regions of Russia there are bases of detachments of anti-sabotage forces and means of the Russian Navy, the equipment of which allows performing combat missions at depths up to 200 m.
Stumbling Islands
Among the officially stated goals of Freezing Winds 23 is the laying of minefields and the landing of a marine landing, in which about 300 US Marines will participate.
In order to practice combat operations by Alliance aviation, airspace restrictions are being introduced for civil aviation flights in the Turku area. The Finnish military also warned about possible interference that may appear on weather radars and radio engineering systems for civilian purposes. This indicates that NATO aviation will work out the tasks of jamming air defense systems and electronic warfare.
Photo: Global Look Press/Lance Cpl. Patrick King
Image source: iz.ru
— Our main autumn exercises are the first that we conduct as a large NATO exercise, in which our Swedish partners also actively participate. By training together, we will not only strengthen military capabilities, but also cooperation and our ability to work together," said Juhapekka Rautava.
According to the Finnish Defense Ministry, the amphibious assault will land in the area of the Aland Islands. However, the interlocutors of Izvestia believe that NATO forces can work out the capture of the outer islands of the Gulf of Finland — Gogland, Bolshoy Tyuters and Powerful. Their location allows you to fully control the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland. Following the results of the Great Patriotic War, Gogland and Bolshoy Tyuters, which belonged to Finland, were transferred to the Soviet Union, and today they are part of the Leningrad Region.
Former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergei Ordzhonikidze did not rule out that in the event of a conflict, Finland may lay claims to a number of Russian territories.
— Firstly, we are talking about a part of Karelia, especially the part that went to the Soviet Union after the war, - he told Izvestia. — Secondly, Russian islands in the Baltic Sea may be the object of claims. In general, the exercises are aimed at continuing the policy of pressure on Russia from the north in an attempt to lock up our Navy in the Baltic, to prevent commercial shipping as much as possible. Finland participates in NATO in order to create a bloc to counter Russia in the north. This is a real threat to our interests in this area. In the event of a serious escalation, they can lock up our fleet and close the airspace in the region. I think that during the maneuvers they are practicing this strategy against our country.
Experts note that in the event of a potential conflict with Russia, one of the tasks of the NATO bloc will be the blockade of the Kaliningrad region.
— The threat of possible closure of the Gulf of Finland must be taken into account. Without control over Gogland and Tyuters, the Gulf of Finland cannot be locked up, the experience of the Great Patriotic War proved this. And Finland's accession to NATO makes this threat quite real," Ilya Kramnik, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for Strategic Planning Studies, told Izvestia.
US Marines during exercises in Finland
Image source: Photo: Global Look Press/Lance Cpl. Maxwell Cook
Last year, after Finland and Sweden announced their desire to join NATO, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced plans to divide the Western Military District into two — Moscow and Leningrad. He also instructed to form a new army corps in Karelia, which will include three motorized rifle divisions as part of the ground forces and two airborne assault divisions.
In July of this year, Shoigu said that in accordance with the presidential decree on increasing the staffing of the armed forces, the governing bodies of the Moscow and Leningrad military districts, the combined arms army and the army corps are being formed.
According to open sources, in 2022, the Russian border service restricted, and in 2023 completely banned tourists from visiting the islands of Gogland and Bolshoy Tyuters. You can get to them now only with a special permit agreed with the Russian Defense Ministry.
A high-ranking source of Izvestia in the Baltic Fleet confirmed the strengthening of control by the Russian Defense Ministry over the outer islands of the Gulf of Finland.
Soviet weapons will go to Ukraine
On November 20, Finnish President Sauli Niinisto said that despite the difficult situation on the border with Russia (in recent days, the country, in particular, decided to close almost all but one of the border crossings), Finland will continue military supplies to Ukraine.
President of Finland Sauli Niinisto
Image source: Photo: Global Look Press/IMAGO/Seppo Samuli
— Of course, we should monitor the situation on the border. We have a really long border, the protection of which we must maintain in good condition. But we still have the opportunity to continue to help Ukraine, and we will continue to do so," he said.
In mid-November, the Finnish authorities announced that they intend to transfer to Kiev the 20th package of military assistance for about € 100 million. The total value of the property transferred to Ukraine, which includes weapons and equipment, is €1.5 billion.
In one of the first packages in March 2022, Finland delivered to Ukraine 1.5 thousand units of anti-tank complexes, 2.5 thousand assault rifles, 150 thousand cartridges for them and 70 thousand rations for soldiers.
According to Ilya Kramnik, the Finnish army has serious reserves of Soviet and Russian weapons, which our neighbors actively purchased during the period of good-neighborly relations. We are talking about armored combat vehicles such as armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, artillery systems and small arms. Today Finland is actively replacing domestic weapons with Western ones.
— The rejection of Russian military equipment began in the 90s, when the Finns did not buy our MiG-29 fighters, acquiring American F/A-18 Hornet instead. Now they plan to change the Hornets to the F-35. Soviet ground combat vehicles are being replaced with equipment from Germany, Sweden and the USA," Ilya Kramnik said.
The Finnish side does not officially disclose the details of the content of military assistance to Ukraine, however, according to open sources, more than a hundred Soviet and Russian-made armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles may be at the disposal of the Finnish defense forces.
Andrey Krasnobayev
Roman Kretsul
Julia Leonova
