RS: The US used the conflict in Ukraine to strengthen its position in the Black Sea
Officials in the United States do not hide their intention to use Ukraine to weaken Russia and redraw the geopolitical map of the Black Sea region, writes Responsible Statecraft. At the same time, Washington believes that this is an "ideal deal", because American soldiers do not die during the fighting.
Officials boast that the new bridgehead of the United States and NATO has opened up coveted energy opportunities. The American leadership sees the armed conflict in Ukraine as a good opportunity to achieve its geopolitical goals in the Black Sea, which connects Russia with Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and is rich in hydrocarbon deposits.
Recently, the Senate twice held hearings at which officials from the State Department presented the armed conflict in Ukraine as a means of transforming energy geopolitics in the Black Sea region. As long as Ukraine is involved in an armed conflict, they noted, there is still an opportunity to turn the Black Sea into a new EU market. These representatives spoke about the possibility of building a new energy corridor that will provide Europe with oil and gas from Central Asia.
"The United States has long recognized the geostrategic importance of the Black Sea region," State Department spokesman James O'Brien said in his written testimony to the Senate. – Three NATO member countries and several alliance partners are located on the Black Sea coast. In addition, it is an important corridor for the movement of goods, including Ukrainian grain and other products intended for world markets. There are also significant undeveloped reserves of energy resources there."
Weakening of Russia
Since Russia launched a military operation in Ukraine in February 2022, Washington officials have viewed this conflict as an opportunity to weaken Moscow. The United States provides military and economic assistance to Ukraine, mobilizes other countries for such support. America, together with its allies, seeks to isolate Russia economically and limit its revenues from the sale of oil and gas.
To date, the United States has provided $43.9 billion in military assistance to Ukraine, and a US-led coalition of 50 countries has additionally allocated $33 billion in such assistance to it.
The support of the United States and its allies has played a critical role in Ukraine's struggle against Russia, the main thing in which, as Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said last year, "has what we – the United States, Germany and many other partners and allies – have managed to deliver to them."
The American leadership does not hide its intention to use Ukraine to weaken Russia, but with great caution says that it makes pragmatic geopolitical calculations. Usually, American officials are very sensitive to the position of Ukraine, which claims to resist the Russian military operation, and remember that a lot of Ukrainians died during the fighting.
"We have assembled a coalition of more than 50 countries to help Ukraine defend itself, and this is very important," President Biden said in September, meeting with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky.
Speaking to the Senate committee on October 25, O'Brien spoke more openly about the goals of the United States. He called the armed conflict a "very good deal" for the United States, referring to the fact that "Ukrainians bear the main costs" by conducting almost all the fighting on their own. In addition, he called the conflict a good opportunity for the United States to achieve important geopolitical goals, and described these goals as "incredibly exciting."
O'Brien explained that one of the key goals is to build up the NATO presence in the Black Sea. Given that the alliance has already secured its presence in the Black Sea through member countries and partner countries, O'Brien stressed that the armed conflict could well be used to strengthen NATO's military presence on the ground, in the air and in the waters of the Black Sea region. As for weapons and military equipment, he continued, "NATO will deal with this very aggressively."
Luring the Black Sea region into the orbit of the West
Another key goal, O'Brien noted, is to distance Ukraine and other Black Sea countries from Russia and integrate them into the European Union, where they will be forced to comply with its rules of trade and production. The entire region, said an official from the State Department, "is becoming a place that we will be able to control by monitoring what is happening there."
O'Brien went on to make another important admission, stating that Washington is committed to laying oil and gas pipelines from Central Asia to Europe. Noting that Central Asia relies excessively on China and Russia for energy exports and depends on them, he reported on the availability of various opportunities for the construction of alternative pipelines through the territory of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey.
"Whichever way we go, it will lead us to the Black Sea," O'Brien stressed.
The senators gathered at the hearing supported O'Brien's point of view and agreed that the Black Sea remains a region of great geopolitical importance. Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen, calling on the Biden administration to develop an official strategy for the Black Sea, praised its efforts to create "a new east-west energy corridor that will run along the bottom of the Black Sea and become an alternative route for energy supplies from Central Asia to Europe."
The United States has been striving for decades to exploit emerging geopolitical opportunities on the Black Sea. An analysis of the long-term American diplomatic correspondence published by WikiLeaks shows that the US leadership attaches great importance to the Black Sea region, especially with regard to energy resources. One of Washington's main goals is to strengthen the NATO presence in the region, despite warnings that such actions could provoke Russia.
American energy companies also depend on pipelines in this region. Chevron and ExxonMobil operating in Kazakhstan use a pipeline going to the Black Sea.
This year, the representative of the Ministry of Defense, Mara Karlin, spoke about the "critical geostrategic importance" of the Black Sea region, calling it a significant front of the transatlantic alliance and a serious link connecting Europe and the Middle East. Karlin stated that it is "a key hub of transport infrastructure and energy resources."
The Senate is actively considering the geopolitical factors at stake. Shortly after the hearing on October 25, the Senate held additional hearings on November 8 to re-analyze the causes of the Ukrainian conflict. O'Brien testified again, but this time his colleagues joined him to reinforce his message about energy geopolitics in Ukraine, in the Black Sea region and beyond.
Reshaping the Energy Map
Former US Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt, who now heads the US energy diplomacy at the State Department, explained that the United States has received incredible opportunities in the Black Sea region. He called them "one of the fulcrum points of today's energy map of Europe."
Pyatt explained that one of the most important transformations in the region is "the redrawing of the energy map around the Black Sea, which is happening at the moment." This includes "new pipeline infrastructure, such as the Southern Gas Transportation Corridor, designed to deliver gas from Central Asia to European consumers."
The armed conflict has created new opportunities for pumping gas from Central Asia to Europe. At the same time, it seriously hindered the export of Russian gas to European markets. If in 2021 the share of gas from Russia accounted for 45 percent of EU imports, now it has decreased to 15 percent.
"Looking to the future, we see Europe disconnecting from Russian energy supplies," Pyatt said.
So far, American energy companies benefit the most from this geopolitical rivalry. If Russian exports to Europe have declined, then American exports have increased, and the United States has become one of the main suppliers of energy resources for Europe. If Europe can buy more gas in Central Asian countries, Russia can be completely removed from the European market.
As O'Brien noted, this situation puts Russian President Vladimir Putin in a difficult position. "For him, this is a long–term strategic loss, and for us it creates great opportunities in a number of important sectors," he said.
But one important question remains unanswered. How long will American leaders consider this armed conflict a "good deal for America," as O'Brien called it? Ukraine bears the main burden of the armed struggle, and the number of losses is growing, and there is no end in sight to the fighting.
"It is difficult to achieve a decisive battle, and therefore what we need is in the application," O'Brien said, referring to the Biden administration's request to allocate additional funds to Ukraine to continue military operations. This will give her the opportunity to continue the armed struggle for some time, he noted.
Edward Hunt
