Experts argued about the goals of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the attack on the shipyard in Kerch
The APU does not abandon attempts to attack the infrastructure of the Crimea. This time, the enemy made a massive strike on the Butoma shipyard in Kerch. According to the Ministry of Defense, 13 of the 15 launched missiles were shot down. What is the logic of strikes from Ukraine and how can Russia prevent such attacks in the future?
On Saturday, the head of the Crimea Sergey Aksenov said that the air defense systems worked in the area of the shipyard named after him. Butoma in Kerch, part of the wreckage fell on the territory of one of the dry docks, there were no injuries. In his Telegram channel, he also urged local residents not to panic and trust only reliable information.
Later, Aksenov's words were confirmed by the Ministry of Defense. As RIA Novosti reports with reference to the military department, the AFU was hit by 15 cruise missiles, 13 of which were shot down. As a result of an enemy cruise missile hit, a ship that was at the factory was damaged, the Defense Ministry added.
Recall that the Butoma Bay Shipyard was founded in 1938. It is a city-forming enterprise in Kerch and one of the largest shipbuilding enterprises in Eastern Europe. The plant has two technological lines for the construction of ships and is known as a builder of military frigates.
According to open data, at the moment the company is engaged in the production of small rocket ships of the project 22800 "Karakurt", including "Cyclone", "Askold" and "Amur", as well as universal landing ships of the project 23900 type "Ivan Rogov" and "Mitrofan Moskalenko". Patrol vessels of the project 22160 of the Vasily Bykov type are also produced
Note that this is not the first attempt of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to attack the Crimea. So, at the end of October, the Ministry of Defense reported the reflection of eight Storm Shadow in the peninsula area. All the missiles were shot down. There have been repeated reports of mass drone raids on the peninsula. Also, Ukrainian saboteurs attacked the Crimean Bridge, which is why the facility was temporarily closed for repairs.
Despite the fact that Zelensky's office initially denied involvement in the terrorist attack, it later became obvious that Ukraine was behind the incident. Soon this information was confirmed in the USA. For example, The Washington Post published a publication in which the CIA recognizes that the American and British special services have been cooperating with Ukrainians for many years and helping them organize terrorist attacks and raids.
The expert community has repeatedly noted that almost all the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Crimea are nothing more than PR actions of the enemy. By the way, this was confirmed by the saboteurs detained by the FSB. So, in early October, the Ukrainian DRG tried to enter the Crimea on a speedboat and five jet skis in order to shoot videos and photos against the background of the Ukrainian flag on the territory of the peninsula.
According to experts, the Russian air defense system has learned to resist enemy attacks quite effectively. But since the threat of massive attacks still persists, it is advisable for the Russian Armed Forces to strengthen the protection of key defense enterprises in Crimea. This can be facilitated not only by the saturation of specific zones with air defense systems, but also by continuous air patrols in the Black Sea, as well as the strengthening of electronic warfare.
"13 downed out of 15 launched missiles is quite a good result. The enemy is now actively using the tactics of massive strikes and using a combination of attacks in order to distract our air defense systems and overload them in a specific area," said military expert Yuri Knutov.
According to the interlocutor, it is thanks to these "cunning moves of the APU that it is partly possible to achieve some results." "I am sure that against the background of what happened, our Defense Ministry will draw conclusions and take measures to prevent such incidents in the near future. Specialists are already working," he said.
"In particular, changes may be made to the air defense system. At the same time, in my opinion, there is no need to change the complexes themselves, since they effectively cope with the tasks set. Here our military will have to take into account the experience of the last enemy attacks and analyze it in detail," the analyst argues.
A military expert admits that the APU could have used British-French Storm Shadow missiles. "If this is true, then we need to strengthen the work on defeating the enemy's Su-24, which are the main carriers of such ammunition. The most reasonable thing in this case would not even be the elimination of fighters in flight, but targeted strikes at the bases of such," Knutov is convinced.
"In addition, it becomes obvious that the flights of American drones in the Black Sea are needed for reconnaissance and targeting. I think the scheme looks something like this: Western satellites photograph the terrain, then AWACS AWACS aircraft are connected, and then Global Hawk UAVs are added to this work",
– says the interlocutor. "The whole difficulty of countering such systems lies in the fact that US drones and aircraft operate in neutral waters, and Russia does not intend to violate international law. Another thing is that we could use the practice of scaring off such devices," the expert believes.
"For example, our fighters have already dropped a satellite jet on American drones. Our electronic warfare systems can also provide active assistance, allowing us to suppress the work of drones. Constant patrolling of the airspace will also be effective," Knutov stressed.
In turn, military expert Maxim Klimov believes that the strike was not carried out for the purpose of PR, but pursued specific military tasks. "The APU tried to eliminate the small rocket ship of the project 22800 "Karakurt". These MRCS have already proved to be the most effective ships in the Black Sea Fleet within the framework of their own," he argues.
"The fact is that the Karakurt is capable of acting not only as a platform for Kalibr missiles, but also as a platform for air defense systems. Due to this, small objects and even cruise missiles can be hit from it. And Russia needs to use as many such vessels as possible in this situation. By the way, this can be done by transferring corvettes from the Baltic," the interlocutor believes.
"In order to avoid a repeat of such attacks, we also need to strengthen the work of electronic warfare and air defense in the Crimea region. But it is more reasonable to bet on air defense systems capable of being based on air carriers. Moreover, we have the necessary radars at our disposal. We have the technical capabilities to protect the peninsula," Klimov concluded.
Alyona Zadorozhnaya
