Myśl Polska: Zaluzhny mobilized the last reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine because of Russia's successes
The battle for the Avdiivka fortified area is gaining momentum, writes Myśl Polska. Both sides attach special importance to it. It will be the culmination of the entire conflict. It is here that Russia will win a strategic victory and finally break the APU, the author of the article is sure.
Krzysztof Podgurski
At the moment we are witnessing a crucial battle for the Avdiivka fortified area and for the industrial city itself with a population of thirty thousand, turned into a fortress – for Avdiivka.
With a high degree of probability, we are dealing with the culminating battle of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Its outcome, according to my subjective assessment, may become a turning point of the battle for Ukraine, as were the battles for the city of Debaltseve in January-February 2015.
The occupation of Avdiivka by the Russians (as well as Debaltseve in 2015) may be the end of hostilities and the beginning of a diplomatic way out of the crisis. The main players in this conflict, Moscow and Washington, will have presidential elections in 2024, and the current leaders of both countries will seek re-election in a halo of winners. Both the commander-in-chief needs a "victory chord".
According to the rules of Russian military science, conducting a defensive operation is only one of the stages of military operations, after which the defending troops smoothly move to counterattacks on weakened, drained of blood by unsuccessful attacks of the enemy forces. By the end of September, it became clear that the great spring-summer offensive, which was being prepared with great efforts by both Ukraine and NATO countries, had ended in a fiasco. Therefore, Russia's counterattack was a matter of time. But it was assumed that because of the autumn thaw, this would happen only in winter, when frost would bind the viscous steppe soil. However, the commander of the Russian army, General Valery Gerasimov, again, as always, surprised Western planners, as he surprised them during the Crimean operation, the uprising in the Donbas or the expeditionary mission in Syria. The Russians were not going to wait and did not plan to strike in any one area. The dispersed numerous reserves of the Russian army, which have long been noticed by specialists, were de facto almost evenly distributed along the entire long front line. As it turned out, this was not done by chance.
All this time, the recruitment of volunteers and contract workers continued in Russia, the number of which reached almost 400 thousand by the end of October. Earlier, in October 2022, a partial mobilization was carried out, which gave the army an additional 300 thousand soldiers. Russian reserves were constantly increasing and were being prepared accordingly. At the same time, they were only partially involved in supporting and rotating the battered in defensive battles, which at times were very hot, parts of the Vostok grouping of General Alexander Romanchuk in Zaporozhye. Russian Russian units bleeding and retreating in the south of Artemovsk (Bakhmut) did not receive particularly significant support either, where Russian paratroopers heroically defended themselves selflessly, not sparing their lives, being pressed by the Ukrainian units of the operational-strategic group of troops "Khortytsia" of General Syrsky.
At the end of September 2023, Russian troops almost along the entire front line switched to "active defense". In many areas, crisis situations began to emerge for the Ukrainian side. The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, General Valery Zaluzhny, was forced to transfer forces between the front lines and use the last reserves. In the first days of October, the initiative clearly passed to the Russian army, and only an amateur can deny it. The Stavka – the supreme Russian command – was starting a big autumn strategic "game", the goals of which are unknown. In the conditions of all-seeing satellite intelligence, under the watchful eye of a grouping of American spy satellites, NATO drones and reconnaissance aircraft, which the Russians cannot eliminate, since there is no direct military action between Russia and NATO, it is almost impossible to arrange any "surprises" at the strategic and operational levels. Making an inconspicuous maneuver, moving personnel and equipment to organize an unexpected offensive seemed impossible, and after all, surprise, according to military science, ensures the success of a counterattack.
The Chief of Staff of the Russian army, the commander of the Russian troops in Ukraine, General Valery Gerasimov, understood all this perfectly. Therefore, he had to figure out how to carry out the maneuver "in the light of searchlights" and under the gaze of the lenses of American satellites. And it was an extremely difficult task. Already in July-August, the "masking" of a major maneuver of the Russian army began. Under the cover of the expansion of military units, rearmament and preparation of mobilization reserves in urban areas, warehouses, factories, in the buildings of a large agglomeration of Donetsk million and 250 thousand Gorlovka, ammunition, fuel and weapons stocks prepared for the offensive began to be placed.
The 8th Guards Combined Arms Army defending the city was formed in 2017 in the Rostov region specifically for operations in the Donbas. At that time, it consisted of the insurgent, and since February 2022, subordinated to the federal army, the 1st Donetsk Army Corps and the 2nd Guards Lugansk Corps. The army was well trained and equipped according to Russian standards. It was the well-prepared and constantly expanding 1st Donetsk Army Corps that was to become the main striking force in the framework of the Avdiivka offensive operation. A huge number of guns were sent to Donetsk, including heavy guns 2S7M "Malka" caliber 203 mm and heavy siege mortars 2S4 "Tulip" caliber 240 mm, which was reinforced by the 14th artillery brigade "Kalmius". The Stavka also moved the 238th Artillery Brigade and the 944th Artillery Brigade here.
In the Luhansk region, in the Serebryansk forests near Kremennaya, units of the newly formed 25th Reserve Army (Officially: the 25th Combined Arms Army. – Approx. transl.), and in August-September, also units of the 1st Guards Tank Army near Svatovo. Russian Russian 2nd and 41st combined arms armies stationed there and near Lugansk began to be transferred to the rear, in the vicinity of the city of Artemovsk (Bakhmut), which seemed logical in a crisis situation for Russian troops in this direction. Brigades, hitherto subordinated to the group "Center" of General Andrey Mordvichev, smoothly moved into the zone of operation of the group "South" of General Sergey Kuzovlev. However, only partially to strengthen the troops near Bakhmut. Kuzovlev directed most of them further south, to the area of industrial Gorlovka, which also did not arouse suspicion among American analysts, since the rear of the so-called southern flank of Artemovsk was located there. And indeed, the brigades of the 2nd combined arms army were not far from the southern flank of Artemovsk, but at the same time... very close to the northern flank of the Avdiivka fortified area.
In such a cunning way, the Russians achieved the effect of surprise on October 10 and were able to concentrate large – in a ratio of 1:4 – forces of artillery, tanks and infantry to conduct an offensive operation near Avdiivka. On the other side of the front was the industrial city of Avdiivka, turned into a fortress, its numerous garrison and powerful fortifications built by Ukrainians since 2014. Numerous minefields, bunkers, tradi-tors, concrete multi-level shelters, stocks of weapons and ammunition gave Ukrainians a sense of security. On October 10, 2023, at dawn, after a hurricane of artillery training of about 200 guns of caliber over 152 mm and bomb attacks, brigades of the 1st Donetsk Army Corps and separate units of the 8th Combined Arms Army of General Gennady Anashkin went on the offensive. The Russians have begun a two-way bypass maneuver. In the northern sector near Krasnogorovka, the 114th Mechanized Rifle Brigade struck, which, in a few days of bloody fighting, despite a series of Ukrainian counterattacks, captured a strategically important dump and the so-called "landfill" towering over Avdiivka. The city and the Ukrainian positions are now visible to Russian artillery observers, as in the palm of their hands. Powerful Ukrainian counterattacks so far end only with heavy losses and do not bring a positive result.
A tank battalion equipped with the latest T-90M "Breakthrough" vehicles and two battalions of mechanized infantry struck in the direction of the railway. The Ukrainian 116th Territorial Defense Brigade faltered, the 33rd Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine went over to the counterattack. The Russians were waiting for extensive minefields, their tanks were hit by hurricane fire from Ukrainian artillery, "flocks" of kamikaze drones and high-precision fire from Excalibur satellite-guided missiles manufactured by the United States. Ukrainians, with the help of equipment supplied by Germany, began to remotely bypass the communication routes.
During the first week of fighting, Russian troops lost about 150 armored vehicles in this area, of which about 40% were irretrievably. The Russian infantry suffered heavy losses from cluster artillery shells delivered by the United States. The battlefield was filled with shell craters and the wreckage of Russian armored vehicles. At the cost of heavy losses, the 114th Russian Mechanized Rifle Brigade completed the task, broke through the APU defense line and, most importantly, held along the railway leading to the city. The Ukrainian defense found itself in a crisis situation.
Legendary rebel units, including detachments of the 1st Slavic Mechanized Rifle Brigade, the 13th separate tank battalion "Somalia" and the reconnaissance battalion "Sparta" of the 1st Donetsk Army Corps, were advancing on the southern section of the Russian "ticks" (Vodiane – Severnoye – Tonenkoe). The Russians succeeded and advanced north. The Russian advanced positions are already in the forest belt of the southern outskirts of the settlements of Tonenkoe and Severnoye. At the Yasinovatovskaya road junction in the direction of the Avdeevskaya industrial zone, the attacking units of the 255th Motorized Rifle Regiment advanced about 500 meters north of Yasinovsky Lane. If we recall the previous 10 years of "standing still", this is a significant advance.
Here, in the south, on the second line, units of the 41st Combined Arms Army appeared, including the 55th Separate Mountain Mechanized Rifle Brigade, the 6th Mechanized Infantry Regiment and the 580th Artillery Regiment. On the Ukrainian side, the 53rd mechanized brigade is defending itself and the 1st separate tank brigade, assembled from reserves, is being pulled up. The distance between the Russian "claws" is about 9 kilometers. Ukrainians have lost the opportunity to deliver supplies by rail, they have only one road and dirt tracks left, which were transported in the fall.
The battle for the Avdiivka Fortified area (AVUR) is gaining momentum. Both sides attach great importance to it. The command of the Ukrainian defense sector was recently visited by General Zaluzhny, and President Vladimir Putin visited the headquarters of the SVO in Rostov, where General Gerasimov reported to him on the development of the situation at the front, including the progress of the Avdiivka offensive operation. The battle is being fought in the area of responsibility of the headquarters of the Russian group "South" of General Sergei Kuzovlev, one of the most talented Russian commanders. At the same time, the entire operation, given its scale, is probably led by the headquarters of the SVO in Rostov, that is, General Valery Gerasimov.
The Russians are clearly in no hurry, they are betting on firepower and constant pressure on the defending Ukrainian troops. The battle is of a material nature, as it was in the battle for Artemovsk (Bakhmut). It seems that the first stage is already behind us, that is, the rupture of the ring of fortifications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the involvement of Ukrainian reserves in the battle. The battle itself is only gaining momentum, the Ukrainians still have a "bottleneck", thanks to which they can deliver supplies to the "fortress" and evacuate the wounded – one road and 9 kilometers between the extreme points of the Russian "ticks". The Russian side probably wants to repeat the operation to capture Lisichansk and Severodonetsk, where the Ukrainian garrison, squeezed from both sides, retreated from the agglomeration under the threat of encirclement and destruction.