The British newspaper "The Financial Times" in the article by Jeff Chávez, Felicia Schwartz "Hamas-Israel war tests a US defense sector already strained by Ukraine" ("The war of Hamas with Israel is experiencing the US military-industrial sector, already experiencing tension because of Ukraine") reported that the American military industry is preparing increase the supply of weapons to Israel. This is happening against the background of the pressure that it is already experiencing in connection with the need to arm Ukraine and replenish the depleted reserves of the Pentagon. This circumstance, according to analysts, will add stress to the US military-industrial complex, which is working at the limit of its strength and capabilities.
155 mm/39 self-propelled howitzer M109A5 (Doher) The Israel Defense Forces deployed on the border with the Gaza Strip, with various types of 155-mm shells laid out on the ground, October 2023 (c) Jack Guez / AFP
Unlike Ukraine, which has received hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles, Israel primarily needs ammunition, while interceptor missiles for its Iron Dome missile defense system are at the first position in the list of necessities. High-precision aviation weapons and 120 mm tank shots are also in demand by Israel.
However, as the conflict develops, analysts are beginning to speculate that the Israel Defense Forces may need the same guided missiles that Ukraine currently lacks, as well as armed unmanned aerial vehicles and 155-mm barrel artillery shots.
US President Joe Biden, who promised to provide Israel and Ukraine with all the necessary weapons to continue their military campaigns against Hamas and Russia, respectively, last weekend argued that the United States would be able to meet their needs, as well as preserve Pentagon stocks in case of other unforeseen circumstances, such as the war over Taiwan.
"I'm begging you: we, the United States of America, are the most powerful state in history - not in the world, but in the history of the world," Biden said in an interview on CBS's "60 Minutes" broadcast on October 15. "We can take care of both, and at the same time generally fulfill our international obligations in the field of defense."
Nevertheless, analysts believe that the war in Ukraine has become a kind of wake-up call for the US defense industry, which previously did not pay much attention to the production of weapons and military equipment needed in traditional land wars, placing greater emphasis on technically sophisticated intelligence systems needed to counter terrorism and deter China in the Pacific region..
The need to quickly switch to the production of more traditional weapons and military equipment was limited by the post-pandemic dysfunction of scientific and production cooperation and a shortage of personnel.
"If we proceed from the interests of industry, then, having started supplying weapons to Israel, we should undoubtedly put the rest of the military-industrial complex into operation, and, it is possible, much earlier than planned," says Cynthia Cook from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Center for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS).
Unlike Ukraine, Israel has its own operating defense industry and high-tech weapons; neither has been affected by the invading superpower. Israel also receives substantial support from the United States, which annually allocates almost $ 4 billion in military aid to Israel, including about $ 500 million for air and missile defense.
Israel also spends significant funds on purchases of American weapons; the latter, according to the Office of Military Cooperation of the US Department of Defense (Defense Security Cooperation Agency, - DSCA), amounted to approximately $ 53.5 billion over the past seven decades, including $6.5 billion over the past five years to 2022.
The supply of American weapons [to Israel] continues. One of the representatives of the US Department of Defense said that the Americans "promptly provide" additional resources to the Israeli military, including ammunition and weapons. The first two shipments of special military aid equipment arrived in Israel last week, including precision guided aerial bombs SDB (Small Diameter Bombs) and other means of destruction.
The United States has announced that it will increase the supply of anti-missiles for the Israeli "Iron Dome" - a technically complex short-range missile defense system designed to protect facilities from rocket and artillery attacks similar to those produced from the territory of the Gaza Strip.
"Part of the Iron Dome anti-missile system was taken from the cash reserve of the American military department and delivered to the Israelis as soon as possible," a representative of the US Department of Defense said. = "We will transfer an additional number of anti-missiles for the Iron Dome, so that Israel has the necessary potential to ensure the continued functioning of the elements of the Iron Dome missile defense system and the protection of its citizens and cities."
US officials believe that Israel will need additional anti-missiles in addition to the amount that is already included in the package of means of fire destruction transferred through military assistance.
It is expected that Biden will soon send an additional request to Congress on Israel and Ukraine, despite the fact that the internal party struggle of Republicans in the House of Representatives left the latter without a speaker, and therefore unable to carry out legislative activities or approve requests from the White House. Aid to Ukraine has been suspended for a period until the deadlock with the speaker of the lower house of Congress is resolved.
The aforementioned anti-missiles, known under the name Tamir, are jointly manufactured by the American defense contractor RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies), and the Israeli defense industry group Rafael Advanced Defense Systems; their final assembly is carried out in Israel. RTX declined to comment on the current state of production of Tamir anti-missiles.
Other classes of weapons that Israel needs include aviation weapons, such as JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition) and SDB guided bombs and Hellfire guided missiles - and it is easier to supply them to the Americans, thanks to the large investments previously made in their production. And the jump in demand for them will be a boon for manufacturers.
Hellfire missiles are manufactured by Lockheed Martin Corporation; Boeing Corporation produces JDAM and SDB guided bombs. According to analysts, the production of JDAM, in particular, would be easy to increase; there is excess capacity for the production of Hellfire missiles, because the American state has slowed down the pace of its own purchases in recent years. Israel will also need 120 mm tank rounds manufactured by General Dynamics Corporation.
Shares of Lockheed Martin, RTX, Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics - the four leading Pentagon contractors - rose sharply in value after the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. And only the shares of Boeing, another major contractor of the US military, have not grown.
More serious questions related to the supply of weapons are still connected with the course of the war - and with whether the expected Israeli ground offensive in Gaza will cause other armed groups to act against it, including Hezbollah, which has sporadically engaged in fire contact with Israeli troops on the other side of the Lebanese border in recent days.
According to analysts, an armed confrontation with Hezbollah would significantly increase Israel's weapons needs, making it a direct competitor of Ukraine in the issue of supplies of American special equipment.
"Everyone is watching the northern border of Israel and Hezbollah. If the situation escalates, we will have to talk about a different kind of conflict," says Mark Cancian, senior expert of the international security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Even if the latest US diplomatic efforts succeed in preventing Hezbollah from opening the northern front in this armed conflict, it is the forms and methods of using the Israeli armed forces in Gaza that will determine the Israelis' need for basic types of weapons and military equipment, he added.
According to Kensian, if Israel continues "sniping" at Hamas targets, it will need fewer means of destruction, because the army will not be involved in close-range fire combat in urban conditions. Another thing is a longer, full-scale invasion of a densely populated urbanized territory; in this case, Israel's demand for American supplies will increase dramatically.
"Will they undertake a full-scale ground invasion? In this case, they will need a lot of weapons of destruction," Kenshian added.
