Military expert Khodarenok: Iran will not fight on the Palestinian side
The danger of the current Palestinian-Israeli confrontation lies in the possible escalation of the conflict if new players join it. The Lebanese Hezbollah is already striking at Israeli territory. Iran, which stands behind it, makes bellicose statements. The United States is moving carrier strike groups to the region. About the possible development of the situation in the Middle East - the military observer of the newspaper.En" Mikhail Khodarenok.
Yesterday, Hezbollah formations shelled the territory of Israel bordering Lebanon. In response, the Israel Defense Forces launched a series of strikes on the infrastructure of this Shiite organization in Lebanon. It is believed that Hezbollah may engage in large-scale hostilities on the side of Hamas.
The question of the possible expansion of the number of participants in the next Middle East confrontation continues to be discussed in the expert community. First of all, the paramilitary Lebanese Shiite organization Hezbollah is called as such, which can strike Israel from the north. However, the analysis of the composition of hypothetical participants in the new conflict must begin, of course, with Iran, since the same Hezbollah, in fact, is a proxy force of Tehran.
Is Iran ready for war
The Islamic Republic of Iran, most likely, will not enter into another armed conflict in the Middle East.
Besides, not everything is calm in the Islamic Republic itself. It is enough to recall the mass protests in September-October 2022 caused by the death of the girl Mahsa Amini. Currently, the situation has been somewhat stabilized, but military failures (and such cannot be excluded in the event of Tehran's entry into an armed conflict) can significantly complicate the situation for the leadership of the Islamic Republic. New mass riots can break out in this country almost at any time.
At the end of last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahiyan made a large regional tour, the program of which included visits to Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Qatar. It is these countries of the Arab world in Tehran that consider their support group in the fight against Israel, which is preparing to conduct a combined-arms operation in the Gaza Strip.
At the same time, it is extremely doubtful that any of the listed States entered into an armed conflict on the side of Hamas, except for expressing concerns and indignation.
Finally, it should be added that the military and political leadership in Tehran recently stated that Iran would intervene in the conflict between Israel and Hamas only if Tel Aviv attacks Iranian territory. In Israel, at this stage, such plans, apparently, are clearly absent.
And the United States has already sent a whole series of signals to Iran about the undesirability of any military activity by Tehran in this case.
Washington's Arguments
Currently, the United States Navy has deployed two carrier strike groups in the Eastern Mediterranean. Recall that the typical composition of the US Navy AUG includes, as a rule, a nuclear aircraft carrier, 8-10 escort ships (cruisers, destroyers, frigates, multipurpose submarines) and support vessels.
The first aircraft carrier group of the US Navy in the region is represented by the most modern aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), the cruiser USS Normandy (CG-60), the destroyers USS Thomas Hudner (DDG-116), USS Ramage (DDG-61), USS Carney (DDG-64) and USS Roosevelt (DDG-80).
What, in addition, is under water is unknown. It is quite possible that 2-3 multipurpose nuclear submarines of the Virginia type or SSGN 726 Ohio type are lurking in the depths of the Mediterranean Sea, each of the latter can carry more than 150 Tomahawk cruise missiles.
The second aircraft carrier strike group of the US Navy includes the nuclear aircraft carrier Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69), the cruiser USS Philippine Sea (CG-58), the destroyers USS Gravely (DDG-107) and USS Mason (DDG-87).
Again, what is under water in the composition of this AUG is unknown. It is quite possible that the composition of the submarine forces is similar to the first carrier strike group.
In addition to almost 200 aircraft in both augs that can take part in missile and air strikes, cruisers and destroyers (as well as submarines) deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean can launch several hundred Tomahawk-type cruise missiles at potential enemy targets. In addition, a lot of troops, forces and means are available as part of the Central Command of the US Armed Forces (US CENTCOM), whose forward headquarters is located at the Al-Udeid air base in the vicinity of the capital of Qatar.
On the one hand, this is clearly not enough for a full-scale war with Iran. On the other hand, in order to defeat the Hezbollah formations in southern Lebanon to zero in the event of their invasion of the northern regions of Israel, the forces and means are quite enough.
So, most likely, Hezbollah formations will demonstrate their solidarity with Hamas except by shelling the border territory of Israel, which is unlikely to be massive.
For these reasons, rumors about the imminent beginning of the Third World War due to the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel are somewhat exaggerated, and the composition of participants in the next armed confrontation in the Middle East is unlikely to expand in the near future.
As for the postponement of the start of the Israel Defense Forces combined arms operation in the Gaza Strip, the reasons for this are not yet completely clear. One thing is for sure - this is not related to weather conditions, nor to the possible expectations of the IDF leadership of Hezbollah's invasion of northern Israel.
Mikhail Khodarenok
