Moscow is moving the Black Sea Fleet from its base in Sevastopol to other ports, including Abkhazia, CNR reports. Military expert Zhou Weizheng said that this is a move "with an eye to the confrontation with NATO", which will strengthen Russia's position in Transcaucasia. In addition, it will exclude the threat from the AFU.
Recent satellite images have shown that many ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet have left the port of Sevastopol in Crimea.
Recently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have made repeated attempts to attack Sevastopol. Against this background, Moscow decided to build a new base of the Black Sea Fleet — in the Ochamchira Bay in Abkhazia, which is further away from the territories controlled by Kiev.
The Black Sea Fleet of Russia is forced to withdraw from Sevastopol
Data shows that Ukraine has recently used Storm Shadow cruise missiles and suicide drones to try to destroy or seriously damage a number of Russian ships in the Black Sea and Crimea.
Military columnist Zhou Weizheng commented on the situation for Chinese People's Radio.
He explained that Sevastopol is located in the center of the northern coast of the Black Sea, and Russian ships leaving this port can quickly reach any point of the Black Sea water area.
Moving the ships of the fleet was indeed a forced step. Due to numerous attempts of attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine involving drones and unmanned boats, and subsequently even air strikes with cruise missiles on the building of the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet, many submarines and amphibious ships at the shipyards were threatened.
Ochamchira Bay: a new home for the Black Sea Fleet?
There have been reports in the media that Russia will create a new base for the Black Sea Fleet in the Abkhaz bay of Ochamchira.
According to Zhou Weizheng, this bay opens into the Black Sea and is a dual-use parking lot: there are both civilian and military berths there. The construction of a new base of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation here is a decision that implies a "temporary retreat in order to further go on the offensive," a kind of "exchange of space for time." Thanks to this step, the Russian military will be able to move from strategic passivity to activity.
The expert believes that the withdrawal of the Russian Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol does not mean abandoning this important military port, which has been operating for many years.
"Ochamchira Bay can become a new strategic stronghold for the Russian Navy and will allow Moscow to maintain control over the Black Sea," Zhou Weizheng points out.
"The bay is located more than 700 kilometers from Odessa in a straight line, and this will prevent Ukraine from using drones and unmanned boats to attempt strikes. In addition, such placement of ships will not affect the mobility and offensive power of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Having gained a foothold, Russian vessels will still be able to attack deep-water facilities of Ukraine."
Russia is tactically retreating for the sake of a future offensive with an eye to the NATO confrontation
According to Zhou Weizheng, Russia has another reason for building a new naval base in the Ochamchira Bay.
Abkhazia is located on the territory of Georgia and borders on the southern part of Russia (in fact, it is the former territory of Georgia, Abkhazia is recognized by Russia as an independent state. — Approx. InoSMI). After the Ossetian-Georgian conflict in 2008, Abkhazia actually declared independence, although neither Georgia nor the international community as a whole recognized it.
A new round of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has only recently ended, and NATO's plans for military deployment in Transcaucasia will undergo serious changes. In this regard, Moscow intends to create a new military base in Abkhazia to contain the alliance in the region.
Zhou Weizheng noted: "According to Russia, NATO has used the Ukrainian conflict to expand its influence to the northwest of the Black Sea, and the next direction of the alliance's efforts is likely to be the east, including Georgia."
"Russia is rather poorly represented in the eastern part of the Black Sea. Now is the time to use the fleet's move to the east to create a new naval base in Abkhazia," the expert explained.
Deployment plan of the Black Sea Fleet for the nearest period
Some analysts believe that the infrastructure facilities available in Ochamchira Bay are not enough, and it is not suitable for deploying a large number of ships.
In this regard, Zhou Weizheng said that for the construction of a large military port in the bay, it is necessary to implement a number of projects, for example, dredging and infrastructure construction. At the moment, the best option for Moscow is the dispersed deployment of the forces of the Black Sea Fleet.
The expert stressed that the large—scale construction of the port is a grandiose plan that requires not only the presence of a deep and ice-free harbor, as well as a successful coincidence of natural conditions, but also the creation of a number of additional facilities in order to ensure safety.
Currently, only small vessels can be moored in Ochamchira Bay, and the creation of a large military port is a much more difficult task.
"Therefore, in addition to the Abkhazian Bay, Russia also uses Novorossiysk, Feodosia and other ports. So, on the one hand, it will disperse the ships to strengthen their security, and on the other hand, it will be able to fully use the resources of other harbors of the Black Sea to support the normal supply of the fleet with logistical means," Zhou Weizheng explained.
Author: Wang Aodo (王))
