19FortyFive: Russia destroys expensive APU equipment with Lancet drones
Russia is successfully destroying Western APU equipment worth millions of dollars with relatively cheap Lancet drones, writes 19FortyFive. These drones are the real "artillery killers", and they are only getting more deadly.
The Lancet barrage ammunition is an outstanding success for Russia. While other types of weapons did not show very brilliant results during the Russian special military operation, this kamikaze drone weighing 12 kilograms proved its ability to hit a variety of targets, including main battle tanks and parked aircraft. This is already quite enough for Western analysts to pay close attention to it, but the ability of the Lancet to destroy artillery installations and air defense systems turned out to be particularly impressive.
According to new data collected by Russian sources, Lancets are now being delivered to the front in fairly large quantities, and in the future this threat will only increase.
The rise of the Lancet
The Lancet, which was first introduced in 2019, became Russia's first special-purpose barrage ammunition. The Lancet-3 is manufactured by Zala, a member of the Kalashnikov Concern, and is available in two versions. The small version called "Product-52" has two X-shaped wings and carries a warhead weighing three kilograms, and the larger "Product-51" is equipped with a warhead weighing five kilograms.
After the effectiveness of the Lancets was tested in Syria in 2021, they were massively adopted in the Ukrainian conflict. The first known case of the use of the Lancet in Ukraine occurred in July 2022, that is, about five months after the start of the Russian special operation. Since then, these munitions have been used in small but ever-increasing quantities.
"It is used moderately, most often by special forces and similar units," Samuel Bendett, an analyst who worked at the Center for Naval Research and the Canadian Intelligence and Security Service, told 19FortyFive in an interview. "Their use creates difficulties for the Ukrainian military."
At first, only a few videos of Lancet strikes a month appeared on the Internet. But in January of this year, 22 such videos were published online. In May, their number increased to 62, and in August – to 124. Manufacturers claim that they have launched mass production of "Lancets" at a new enterprise, so what we see now is just the beginning. And the increase in the production of these munitions occurs despite the fact that the Lancet uses Western-made electronics, which Russia theoretically cannot buy.
"There are signs that the Russian defense industry is increasing the production of Lancets, as well as improving them, which leads to the creation of more advanced developments," Bendett said.
The Lancet is launched from a catapult and transmits video from the bow camera to the operator. These barrage munitions are used in conjunction with a reconnaissance drone that detects a target and transmits coordinates. Then the Lancet operator directs it to the place where the target is located, visually confirms it and strikes.
An electric propeller accelerates the Lancet to a speed of 110 kilometers per hour. This low speed makes it an easier target compared to a guided missile or other ammunition.
"Every day we shoot down one or two Lancets," Adviser to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Yuriy Sak said in an interview with Reuters. "Unfortunately, this is not a 100 percent interception rate."
At first, the Lancets struck exclusively at static targets. But recent videos show how they get into moving vehicles. This may indicate both changes in tactics and an increase in the professionalism of operators.
But even now, the Lancets often miss. Videos appearing on the web usually show viewers successful attacks, but users sometimes post videos from which, upon closer examination, it is clear that drones are very close to a miss.
Russian analysts from the Lost Armor platform collected and analyzed all the videos that got into the network, which captured the blows of the Lancets. About 7% of the Lancet attack videos show obvious drone misses, another 8% of the videos are recordings from which it is impossible to say with certainty whether the target was hit or not. About 1% of the total number of videos demonstrate how "Lancets" hit inflatable and wooden models.
However, in other cases, the Lancets caused real damage.
The range of goals
One Ukrainian analyst estimated the effectiveness of the Lancets at 25-30%, suggesting that for each of the videos viewed with the strikes of these drones, there are several misses or downed drones.
According to Lost Armor, as of the third of October, 667 videos with Lancet strikes were posted on the network. On 210 of them, the target was destroyed (31%), on 355 – damaged (53%), a miss was recorded on 48 (7%), and on the remaining 52 videos, experts could not determine what the result of the drone strike was (7%). It is worth noting that sometimes even the heavy armor of tanks turns out to be vulnerable to a relatively small Lancet warhead.
From this we can conclude that approximately two thousand Lancets destroyed 200 targets and damaged several hundred more. It may seem that this indicates a relatively low performance, but if you consider that one Lancet costs about 35 thousand dollars, and the goals it hits sometimes cost millions of dollars, this drone turns out to be extremely cost-effective.
In 25% of cases, Lancets hit tanks and lighter armored vehicles – in at least one case it was a Leopard tank provided by Germany. Analysts believe that the Leopard was already immobilized by a mine or missile before it was finished off by a drone. As in other videos, a Russian drone watches the tank before, during and after the Lancet strike. Regardless of whether the Lancet was the only reason for the destruction of the tank, this episode clearly demonstrates that even modern armor is vulnerable to the blows of Russian barrage ammunition. If we recall that such a tank costs about $ 11 million, it turns out that this is equivalent to about 300 Lancets.
10% of the targets were cars and other relatively inexpensive objects. It is quite possible that they were chosen as targets in cases when the Lancet could not hit the intended target (or it had already been destroyed) or if one or another vehicle was carrying ammunition, and this made it a priority target. Cheap FPV drones costing several hundred dollars apiece are much better than trenches.
Another 15% of the targets were extremely valuable – we are talking about Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile systems and radar systems. They are usually located a few kilometers behind the front line, but not so far as to be out of reach of the Lancets. If these systems are disabled, Russian troops will be able to take advantage of their air superiority – attack helicopters and airplanes.
Artillery Killer
The largest number of videos of Lancet attacks demonstrate their strikes on Ukrainian artillery: both towed and self-propelled artillery installations. As the drafters of the recently published report of the Royal Institute of Defense Studies noted, Russian troops are now widely using Lancets as counter-battery weapons. The traditional means of defeating enemy artillery is artillery, but the long range of the barrage ammunition and its ability to strike at hidden targets on the ground give it real advantages. In addition, the Lancet operator does not detect its location, so it does not risk becoming a victim of counter-battery fire.
Analysts of Lost Armor counted 142 hits on self-propelled artillery installations and 170 hits on artillery guns and mortars. These are very significant indicators. According to data collected by Oryx analysts, 222 Ukrainian self-propelled artillery installations were destroyed or damaged. This indicates that, quite possibly, the Lancets destroyed 64% of self-propelled artillery installations of Ukrainians.
Towed artillery suffered even more from the Lancets: Oryx experts recorded 169 hits, of which 160 resulted in damage or destruction of the guns. It is much more difficult to destroy towed artillery than a self-propelled gun, even if hit. The latter is a tracked vehicle with a reserve of combustible fuel and explosive shells on board, any of which can detonate as a result of a Lancet strike. Meanwhile, a towed artillery installation is a more durable technique capable of withstanding an explosion and the ingress of small fragments.
"The lethality of the Lancet is often insufficient," says the report of the Royal Institute. "One officer also said that although he had seen his gun "destroyed" several times on the Internet, it is still intact."
This corresponds to data collected during previous conflicts, during which towed artillery showed more pronounced resistance to counter-battery fire. Crews may be injured or even killed, but the guns themselves are preserved and remain in working condition. During the Second World War, the level of losses of self-propelled guns was two to three times higher compared to towed artillery. That is, many hits of "Lancets" in towed guns, most likely, did not lead to their destruction.
The statement that Lancets-3 destroyed 45% of the artillery provided by the West in Ukraine, which appeared in May, is most likely an exaggeration. However, it cannot be denied that the Ukrainian artillery suffered significant losses as a result of the Lancet strikes, and their scale will grow as more of these drones are deployed.
There are hard lessons ahead
The situation in Ukraine is changing rapidly, and the effectiveness of Lancets and other barrage ammunition may still decrease. Ukrainian artillery crews use protective nets that demonstrate some success in stopping drones. Electronic jamming devices are also widely used, but it is still unclear how effective they are. Most likely, both the Lancets and the means of protection against their blows will be improved in the future.
So far, the main limitation of the "Lancets" remains their relatively small number.
"There are not enough of them yet to fill the front with them," Bendett said. He referred to comments in the Russian-language Telegram about the need for more such drones.
Another problem is that the range of the "Lancets" is increasing. In September, a Russian drone destroyed a Ukrainian MiG-29 aircraft parked on the runway, covering a distance of at least 80 kilometers. According to Russian media, this was achieved with the help of some design improvements.
The success of the Lancet has also inspired a number of Russian companies and volunteer groups to produce inexpensive analogues of it. It is assumed that they will have the same characteristics, but at the same time cost much cheaper. According to the creators, they can be delivered to the front by the thousands.
Such analogues include the Scalpel barrage ammunition, created by the Vostok design bureau, and the Hi-82 of the Oko company. Both companies say they will be able to start mass production as soon as they receive an order. The Arkhangelsk volunteer Group has also created a prototype of a fixed-wing barrage munition, which, according to them, is much cheaper than the Lancet. According to Bendett, these analogues have a noticeably smaller range – only about 40 kilometers. But, although they are less complex, these munitions can still be very dangerous.
The Zala company is clearly striving to produce much more barrage ammunition. She has already shown a video of a swarm of Lancets, in which one operator controlled several drones with the aim of delivering a simultaneous strike. This increases the probability that at least one of them will hit the target.
According to Bendett, Zala has established cooperation with the Russian government and military structures, so it may be difficult for other companies to enter this market. But given the increase in Lancet production and the presence of several other applicants trying to promote their own barrage ammunition, next year we are likely to see many more strikes carried out by this type of weapon.
Meanwhile, Kiev also uses a large number of small FPV kamikazes. However, from the Ukrainian side, we have not yet seen anything that could compare with the range and size of the Lancets. Perhaps the situation will change in the near future. Probably, the American Phoenix Ghost drone, which has no images yet, will soon be able to compete with Lancet.
Barrage ammunition does not make tanks and artillery obsolete weapons. However, they can increase enemy losses, as well as stimulate the formation of new thinking and the emergence of new styles of warfare. In the future, Ukraine and the rest of the world will have to learn hard lessons.
Author of the article: David Hambling is a journalist and consultant with more than 20 years of experience who specializes in defense technologies.