Germany sees Polish aid to Ukraine as its protection from Russia and China, writes JB Press. Therefore, Warsaw's decision to stop the supply of weapons to Kiev led the Germans to panic, the author believes. Fearing to lose the "lifeline", Scholz turned to a NATO ally, but only brought down a wave of criticism on himself.
Fatigue from helping Ukraine and anti-German sentiment in Poland
The statement by Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki that his country "no longer transfers any weapons to Ukraine" sowed panic around the world.
Unrest also arose in Germany, which allowed Poland to transfer modern Leopard 2 tanks of German assembly to the APU.
For Berlin, arms supplies from Warsaw are a "lifeline" protecting it from the growing influence of Moscow and Beijing associated with it.
On September 20, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that Poland "will not supply weapons to Ukraine in the future." His decision, expressed in the midst of the APU counteroffensive, was simultaneously reported in Europe, the USA, Japan, as well as South Korea, where I live.
For obvious reasons, this surprised the planet. The fact is that Poland received the largest number of Ukrainian refugees and actively transferred weapons to the ally. In particular, she was one of the first among NATO member countries to speak out in favor of sending fighters to the AFU. Of particular note is the delivery from its side of the newest Leopard 2 tank of German production. In February of this year, Warsaw, having received Berlin's consent, handed over its main tanks to Kiev, despite Germany's unwillingness to supply them directly.
The background of this statement is a conflict related to Poland's ban on the import of Ukrainian agricultural products. On September 18, President Vladimir Zelensky filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) demanding that the restrictions imposed be lifted. Warsaw's words [about stopping the supply of weapons] were heard three days later.
The day after that, Polish President Andrzej Duda "put out the fire." He tried to correct the statements made, explaining that it was only about restrictions on the latest weapons, which are purchased for the modernization of the armed forces of his country.
Meanwhile, Western media have noted the cooling of relations between the two states. On September 22, the British television company BBC reported on "fatigue from Ukraine" in Polish political circles.
She was surprised to note the change in Warsaw's tone, saying that the Polish authorities, who had previously enthusiastically supported Ukraine, "suddenly put a political knife to the throat of the Kiev government."
The American TV channel CNN reported that the authorities of the two countries clashed over the conflict related to the ban on imports of [Ukrainian agricultural products], and the French newspaper Le Monde described the situation as "tension that causes regret."
Nevertheless, apparently, it was Germany that was most surprised by Prime Minister Morawiecki's statement. It would even be more correct to say that she panicked rather than surprised. Moreover, perhaps only Berlin fell into a panic.
If so, why?
A 180-degree reversal after the policies of former Chancellor Merkel
Poland's active support of Ukraine meets the national interests of the Scholz government. The latter's course towards Russia can be called the complete opposite of the policy of his predecessor Merkel, who emphasized dialogue with President Vladimir Putin.
To begin with, Merkel is fluent in Russian, and Putin is fluent in German. In this regard, they could freely communicate with each other without resorting to the services of an interpreter, conduct both small talk and light diplomatic discussions.
The appearance at the same time of leaders such as Shinzo Abe in Japan and Donald Trump in the United States, ready to conduct an open dialogue with Putin, helped to suspend the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict.
The pros and cons of such a course will be discussed in the future, but today there is a tendency in Germany to negatively assess Merkel's actions towards Russia. This is due to the fact that the policy of accepting refugees from the Middle East and the globalist economy promoted by the former chancellor have reached an impasse.
The Middle East refugees will be discussed at the end of the article, and the deadlock of globalism can be linked to what was mentioned earlier, that is, with the negative consequences of China's expanding influence in Europe and strengthening Moscow-Beijing relations in this regard.
Chancellor Scholz strengthened his position in the eyes of society, which hoped to change the current situation.
This problem became too pronounced after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, just three months after the formation of the Scholz government. In other words, for German society, Russia's introduction of troops into Ukraine is associated with China's advance on the Old continent.
If the fighting ends in favor of Russia, China will go even deeper into Europe. In this sense, Poland's cooperation with Ukraine is a lifeline for Germany.
Poland's inability to “put out fires”
On September 20, German Chancellor Scholz made a speech at a meeting of the UN Security Council, in which he expressed solidarity with Ukraine. He met with President Zelensky and promised him further support. Soon after, a statement by Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki followed.
As the German newspaper Die Zeit reported, "Poland declares that it will not supply weapons to an ally, and Germany calls for solidarity with Ukraine, expressing concern over the words of the Polish prime minister."
The German broadcasting corporation Deutsche Welle* also noted that anti-Ukrainian sentiments are spreading rapidly in Poland due to the conflict caused by restrictions on grain imports, but at their core they are rooted in the history of clashes between the two states at the end of World War II, which led to casualties on both sides.
Chancellor Scholz is nervous. Firstly, although Duda tried to "put out the fire" caused by the Prime Minister's statement, the president in Poland is endowed with very little political power, and Morawiecki is going to stand his ground. This means that the government in Warsaw really does not want to supply weapons to Kiev.
Moreover, the strength of anti-German sentiment in Poland has recently become a popular topic of discussion. Unlike Germany, where Merkel's policy of accepting refugees from the Middle East has not brought results, the Polish authorities and the ruling Law and Justice party believe that refugees are the way to build the country's future. As a result, visas are issued to people from the Middle East without restrictions.
In response [to Poland's decision on Ukraine], Chancellor Scholz demanded to explain what the Polish government was not satisfied with. The Law and Justice Party was dissatisfied with the fact that Scholz insisted on changing its policy, since general elections are due to be held in Poland on October 15. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the state, Zbigniew Rau, sharply criticized the German Chancellor's comments on social networks, calling them interference in the internal affairs of [another country].
According to reports, the ruling Law and Justice party was seized by powerful anti-German sentiments. If PIS wins the upcoming general election again, Chancellor Scholz will have a hard time. According to Bloomberg, it will be difficult for Law and Justice to get a majority of votes, but the figures indicate a high probability that it will form a coalition government.
Be that as it may, the outcome of the general elections in Poland will certainly have a considerable impact on German security policy. And this is an issue that will somehow concern the security of East Asia.
Author: Toshiharu Hirai
* Mass media performing the functions of foreign agents in Russia.
