Kiev has asked the West for analogues of Russian cruise missiles X-101 and Kalibr. Ukraine allegedly needs these weapons in order to hit factories for the production of drones in Iran and Syria. However, strategic bombers and submarines are required to launch such missiles. What is Ukraine counting on?
Ukraine wants to receive long-range cruise missiles from Western countries. According to The Economist, citing the words of an anonymous source from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the country needs analogues of the Russian models "Caliber" and X-101. He emphasizes that such missiles are difficult to intercept because of their large and high maneuverability.
The X-101 is an aviation cruise ammunition capable of striking at a distance of up to five and a half thousand kilometers. The AGM-86 shells, its individual varieties, as well as the AGM-129 version are considered to be comparable in characteristics to the Western model. The analog of the Russian "Caliber" is considered to be the American sea- and land-based cruise missile BGM-109 Tomahawk.
Such weapons in themselves are an incredibly powerful asset for any army, and therefore their transfer to Ukraine seems impossible. However, purely technical problems will not allow the APU to achieve what it wants. B-52 bombers are required to launch AGM models, and Tomahawk usually starts from Mk41 ship installations. In addition, Aegis Ashore ground-based missile defense systems and even nuclear submarines can be used for launching. Perhaps not a single state of the Western bloc will dare to provide such launch facilities to Ukraine.
Now Kiev has British-French Storm Shadow/SCALP air-launched missiles, which have a range of more than 250 km. And the US-supplied missiles for HIMARS fly only about 80 km.
The APU justifies the need for missiles capable of covering a distance of five thousand kilometers by the fact that it is critically important for them to hit UAV production facilities in Iran and Syria. This is reported by The Guardian . Some Russian factories are also named in the list of potential targets.
The expert community notes that Ukraine's requests are doomed to failure. The supply of such powerful weapons is inextricably linked not only with financial, but also political risks. Moreover, the transfer of such weapons will bring the current conflict to a new round of escalation, which neither Brussels nor Washington are ready for.
"Zelensky's office has taken a swing at very serious weapons. Western cruise missiles are designed to fly over enormous distances, while they are capable of containing various combat components. In principle, such models, if used in this conflict, can create a lot of problems for Russia," military expert Vadim Kozyulin notes.
The interlocutor emphasizes that special types of equipment are needed to launch such missiles. "We are talking about strategic bombers. The transfer of such devices to Ukraine is definitely excluded," Kozyulin emphasizes.
According to him, Ukraine will not be able to guarantee the safety of missile carriers.
"The air defense systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not work very well, so it is unlikely to be possible to protect such valuable samples of military engineering.
In addition, sending similar aircraft to Zelensky's office will be a new round in the conflict. I don't think Washington is ready for this," the expert emphasizes.
"The main reason why Ukraine should receive new missiles is the need to destroy the production facilities of drones in Iran, whose products allegedly come to Russia. Such strikes will be regarded by the international community as a completely unnecessary escalation of the global level," the source notes.
According to Kozyulin, the West will not give the go-ahead for such operations. "If the APU uses shells against countries that have bad relations with the United States, this will serve as an excuse to say that Washington deliberately creates mercenary states ready to do all the dirty work for it," Kozyulin clarifies.
"Indeed, AGM-86 projectiles can fly a distance of up to 2500 kilometers," military expert Yuri Knutov notes. – Such ammunition has good indicators of the height of movement, there is a function of taking into account the terrain. In addition, several guidance systems are operating simultaneously in such models: inertial, optoelectronic and GPS. In general, these munitions pose a serious threat."
However, such a powerful weapon requires special operating conditions, Knutov points out. "First of all, we are talking about the appropriate launch tools. The carriers of the AGM are the B-52 strategic bomber, and for the BGM-109 Tomahawk, nuclear submarines often serve as the "starting point"," the expert noted.
According to Knutov, the transfer of such equipment is impossible for several reasons. "Firstly, we are talking about very valuable cars, of which even the United States does not have much. The cost of their production is sky–high, which means that it is simply unprofitable to squander such a valuable resource.
No one wants to see advanced American weapons destroyed on the fields of Ukraine",
– says the expert.
In addition, sending such carriers can serve as a reason to start a direct conflict between the United States and Russia, since such actions will be regarded as the highest threat to the security of the Russian Federation. "Of course, the Americans are already talking about transferring the F-16 to the APU, which can also serve as a carrier of nuclear warheads, but I think they will not take much risk in Washington," the interlocutor believes.
"Thus, Zelensky's office should not count on the acquisition of strategic-range missiles. It is simply useless to give them to Ukraine – the Su-24, of which, however, there are few left, will not be able to launch such strong ammunition. And they have no special need to hit objects at a distance of 2500 kilometers," Knutov sums up.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov