Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman said that if Iran gets a nuclear bomb, then Riyadh should have such weapons. Saudi Arabia's capabilities allow it to purchase everything it needs, including delivery vehicles. In addition, the appearance of the Saudis' nuclear program is approved by Israel and the United States. When should we expect the emergence of a new nuclear power?
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has allowed Saudi Arabia to have a nuclear bomb if Iran receives such weapons. In an interview with Fox News channel, the Crown Prince stressed that he has a negative attitude to the desire of some countries to obtain a nuclear warhead. He called it a "bad step", stressing that the world "should not see another Hiroshima."
According to the Crown Prince, there is no need for countries to obtain nuclear weapons, since they will not be able to use them. However, he continued, if a country uses nuclear weapons, it will go to war with the rest of the world.
Relations between Riyadh and Tehran worsened in March 2015, when the Saudi-led coalition launched a military operation in Yemen against the Ansar Allah (Houthis) movement. Early next year, the kingdom severed diplomatic relations with Iran after attacks on the Saudi embassy in Tehran and its consulate in Mashhad. In March of this year, Tehran and Riyadh, with the mediation of China, agreed to begin the process of normalization of relations and on the first step - the opening of embassies.
According to The Wall Street Journal, on behalf of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, nuclear security experts have begun to cooperate with their American counterparts to facilitate the implementation of the Saudi nuclear program. On Monday, according to newspaper sources in Israel, Netanyahu discussed this issue during a meeting with US President Joe Biden at the UN General Assembly in New York. First of all, Israel needs firm security guarantees, regardless of the type of program that Riyadh will implement, but Biden has not yet approved any of the scenarios for the development of the situation.
According to the newspaper, during the secret negotiations, the parties did not reach an agreement, but if this happens, then we can talk about a sharp change in the policy of Israel and the United States, which for decades did not allow uranium enrichment in the Middle East. Israel and Saudi Arabia, as well as other Arab states, share mutual hostility towards Iran, a Shiite state and a frequent rival of the Saudis.
"Saudi Arabia is talking about building civil nuclear infrastructure, nuclear power plants. But it is clear to many that where there is civilian infrastructure, there is also military. Iran started with this 20 years ago," explained Simon Tsipis, an Israeli expert on international relations and national security.
"Israel needs very close cooperation with Saudi Arabia to survive.
If Israel transfers nuclear technology to Riyadh, it will move to a new level of existence.
If such a treaty is signed, the State of Israel will acquire world and Middle Eastern legitimacy for the first time since 1947," the expert said.
According to him, not everyone in Israel is ready for such cooperation with Riyadh and is trying to dissuade Netanyahu from transferring nuclear technology to the Saudis. "There is an unspoken agreement in the Middle East that no state in the region will acquire nuclear weapons without Israel's permission. The United States primarily consults on this issue with Israel, which today is the only state in the Middle East that possesses such weapons. Therefore, as long as Netanyahu remains prime minister, Israel will most likely give the go-ahead for Saudi Arabia to acquire nuclear weapons," says Tsipis.
In addition, cooperation with Saudi Arabia can put an end to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which will reduce the burden on the country's army and special services. "This will raise the standard of living in Israel.... Iran will not be able to cope with the coalition represented by Israel and Saudi Arabia, so it is now accelerating its uranium enrichment program to obtain nuclear weapons. Tehran wants to be in time before Israel comes to an agreement with the Saudis and announces the creation of a military-political coalition," the source added, recalling that Iran recently revoked the accreditation of eight specialists of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), who monitored Tehran's fulfillment of obligations under its nuclear program.
"Iran has the technical capabilities to enrich uranium to almost any concentration. These are relatively modern gas centrifuges – replicas of European and Soviet models of the mid-80s – early 90s. Such centrifuges make it possible to obtain weapons-grade uranium–235, which can be used in nuclear power plants, or to develop weapons-grade plutonium in a reactor to create nuclear warheads," says Alexey Anpilogov, an expert in the field of nuclear energy.
Tehran is stopped from producing and obtaining its own nuclear weapons only by political arguments, "which may disappear or receive a different interpretation by those who make decisions in Iran." Nevertheless, the conversion of a peaceful nuclear program into a military one is a serious technical process. As Anpilogov explained, for this it is necessary to create a serious production, "but in general, all the necessary components separately are already at the disposal of Tehran." "It's like a Lego set, from which you need to assemble a house on which there will be a thermonuclear bomb icon," the interlocutor pointed out.
Anpilogov believes that if Saudi Arabia does decide to acquire its nuclear program, it will do so, and the same applies to the acquisition of any means of delivery of such weapons. "This task was solved by a poorer Pakistan. Technologies were bought up all over the world, including from France, South Africa and China. If the political leadership decides to create nuclear weapons, then there are no international mechanisms to keep the country from doing so, except for physical destruction, which was done with Iraq. As soon as Zelensky made an idiotic speech at a conference in Munich, Russia had to start its own, because the Nazis with nuclear weapons at our borders are not the scenario that the Russian Federation needs," Anpilogov said.
The expert is convinced that if bin Salman decides on the nuclear program, it will appear. "In terms of time, it may take 5-10 years. But after that, nuclear weapons will be created," the source explained.
Tsipis recalled that when Iran had just begun to develop its nuclear program, Riyadh openly warned about the possibilities of buying weapons of mass destruction and means of delivery.
"Saudi Arabia can banally acquire nuclear weapons. They do not need many years of work and the construction of infrastructure for uranium enrichment.
Among the possible sellers they named, among others, Russia, France, Pakistan, India, China and even the DPRK," the expert recalled.
In turn, Alexander Vavilov, professor of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, an expert on the Middle East, is sure that it will not go beyond words, bin Salman wants to earn political points. "Saudi Arabia is not going to fight with Iran. The Crown Prince's statement is pure demagoguery, a statement to the public. On the contrary, Riyadh has now reconciled with Tehran and is going to develop relations. Only Israel needs to worry and worry about this, because Iran calls it a "spot on the map," Vavilov said.
"So far, this is just a statement. I wouldn't overestimate him. But there is, of course, a certain risk of escalation of the situation in the Middle East. The US is playing its game and trying to manipulate the situation. Moreover, they contradict themselves, because shortly before they were going to create a unified system of railway communication with India, and this project is difficult to imagine without Iran and Saudi Arabia. Therefore, there is a political game going on here," adds Andrey Bystritsky, chairman of the board of the Foundation for the Development and Support of the Valdai International Discussion Club.
However, the interlocutor agrees that Saudi Arabia can get nuclear weapons without the support of Israel and the United States. "Saudi Arabia is so rich that it is able to do everything by itself. It's just qualifications and technology, there is no scientific secret here. Another thing is that Israel already, apparently, possesses nuclear weapons. Therefore, at the peak of Iran, there may be a variety of cooperation here," the political scientist believes.
Andrey Rezchikov
