Kiev is concerned about the lack of weapons, Yahoo Japan writes. With the end of the Cold War, NATO countries have reduced the production of tanks and are now taking used cars out of warehouses. The author tried to predict what kind of used armored vehicles can be provided to Ukraine.
Takayuki Fukagawa
Kiev absolutely lacks tanks and armored vehicles even for a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
A year and a half has passed since the beginning of Russia's military special operation in Ukraine, and finally the long-advertised "large-scale counteroffensive" of the Ukrainian army has begun.
Although the Ukrainian Armed Forces fought with great effort and losses against the strong lines of defense of the Russian armed forces, at the end of August they partially broke through the first line of defense near Zaporozhye in southern Ukraine, and a senior American official praised this as "significant progress" and expressed hope for further advancement of Ukrainians.
However, both in Ukraine and in the West, there is great concern about the lack of weapons in Kiev, which has engaged in a long struggle for attrition. President of Ukraine Zelensky has repeatedly appealed to Western states supporting his country with the same insistent request: "Give more weapons and ammunition."
Among the military equipment urgently needed by Ukraine, there is an absolute shortage of armored fighting vehicles (AFP), and above all, tanks and infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs).
Firstly, due to the rapid increase in the number of the Ukrainian army due to the intensification of hostilities, it turned out to be almost impossible for Kiev to allocate a sufficient number of armored combat vehicles for each unit of the Armed Forces.
In addition, the Ukrainian air force is very weak, and there is no question of their superiority in the air. This is the main reason that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are suffering more losses than expected from attacks by Russian fighter jets, attack helicopters and drones.
The West, which supports Ukraine, seems to want to send Kiev more armored vehicles, but with the end of the Cold War, NATO countries and the entire West sharply reduced or closed production lines for tanks and armored vehicles. This severely affected the combat readiness of their own armed forces, and they were unable to quickly ensure the supply of a significant number of armored fighting vehicles to Ukraine.
Even the United States, the world's largest arms manufacturer, currently does not produce a single tank. Today, the US Army has about 2,600 M1 tanks deployed in service, and more than two thousand are in warehouses. As necessary, they are removed from storage, repaired and even partially upgraded, and then shipped for internal use or export.
The same situation is developing in the UK, France and Italy. And Germany produces only about 50 Leopard 2 tanks a year.
In other words, even in the West, where some of the most advanced industrialized countries of the world are located, they cannot immediately begin mass production of new tanks and armored vehicles, and therefore they take out from warehouses the surplus of used cars that once existed, which have been standing in hangars or on racks for a long time. And there is still a long way to overcome this current emergency situation.
There are still plenty of "oldies" M60, M48 and "Chieftain"
This inventory of used tanks and armored vehicles, which is currently available in the West, is beginning to seriously worry specialists and experts.
It would not be an exaggeration to say that the key to victory or defeat will be how much of this used equipment can be placed on the front line in Ukraine. Therefore, I tried to predict which used Western armored vehicles will be able to be provided to Ukraine in the foreseeable future.
M60 Tank (USA)
As I have already written on this site, it was used by the US Army until the 1990s and is still a well-known model, actively used in various countries of the world. In total, according to various estimates, more than 15,000 M60 units were produced in America, and there are still several thousand units in stock in the United States.
The M60 tank is one generation older than the M1, and has a 105-millimeter cannon, which is clearly inferior to the 120-millimeter M1 and Leopard 2 cannon and the 125-millimeter cannon of the Russian T-72/T-80/T-90 tanks. However, in the Ukrainian military conflict, unlike what was previously assumed, there were almost no mass tank battles. Rather, the tanks used their thick armor, tracks capable of overcoming large spaces, and powerful tank guns to support infantry units and simultaneously defeat enemy infantry units.
Some note that the very presence of tanks on the battlefield inspires fear to the enemy, so it does not necessarily have to be the most modern. In any case, the number of M60 tanks produced "over ten thousand" is very impressive, and if 10-20% of them are still stored in warehouses in the mainland of the USA, then it will easily amount to one or two thousand units, which is a very attractive prospect for Ukraine.
M48 (USA)
The tank that formed the basis for its follower M60. By the early 1960s, about 12 thousand units were produced, which were used by the US military and many of America's allies. Although they have been "retired" in the United States for a long time, it is believed that there are still a lot of them in warehouses.
It is also noted that the United States can convince allies and friendly countries that are currently using the M48, and buy these machines from them, repair and improve them, and then provide them to Ukraine. At the same time, the M48 is initially equipped with a 90-millimeter cannon, but some say that an improved version of the M48A5 cannon with a 105-millimeter caliber can be put on it. There is evidence that the M48 can be upgraded to the A5 version of the tank.
Tank "Chieftain" (Great Britain)
The tank is seen as very promising, and some reports in Europe and America say that it can be provided to Ukraine. It belongs to the same generation as the M60, was used by the British Army from the 1960s to the 1990s, and it is reported that several hundred units of this machine are still in storage in the UK.
This car served as the basis for the British Challenger 2, 14 of which were transferred to Ukraine. Equipped with a 120-millimeter cannon, it was considered at one time "the strongest MBT in the West." Pro-Western Jordan has used more than 200 units of "Chieftains" and currently stores them as a base of spare parts, but there is a possibility that the UK may agree on their redemption, repair and then transfer to Ukraine.
Merkava Tank (Israel)
Although Israel is not a Western country, it is an ally of the United States and one of the leading tank—developing countries in the world, having about two thousand heavily armored Merkava tanks, most of which are still in storage. There are older models (types I and II) equipped with 105 mm guns, and newer models (types III and IV) equipped with 120 mm guns, and if cars of this type are delivered to Ukraine, the old models can be shipped first.
Although the country has been in a military conflict with neighboring Syria for many years, it maintains good relations with Russia, which supports Damascus. However, at the same time, they say that the United States, Israel's largest military ally, is carefully listening to the repeated requests of President Zelensky, who claims his Jewish roots, and is gradually beginning to lean towards the supply of Israeli weapons to Ukraine.
In fact, at the beginning of this year, Israel decided to supply Ukraine with jamming generators against drones (jamming radio waves), and also began negotiations on the export of Merkava tanks to two European countries. Some observers note that in this way the Israeli government is beginning to tread on the spot, trying to probe Russia's possible reaction to such supplies. So the possibility of Israel providing Merkava tanks to Kiev cannot be considered zero.
AAV7 (USA)
Currently, it is the only "amphibious armored vehicle for infantry assault" in the West, and the U.S. Marine Corps has about 1,300 such vehicles. Also, a small number of them are in service with the armies of Spain and Greece. By the way, the land Self-Defense Forces of Japan have about 60 units of these armored vehicles.
An amphibious operation on the Crimean peninsula and an operation to force the Dnieper River using AAV7 would be extreme recklessness. But the APU is bluffing all the time, threatening the Russians that "sudden operations using these amphibians can be carried out at any moment," forcing Russian troops to spend excessive efforts on defense and creating psychological pressure on them.
76 mm self-propelled gun Otomatic (Italy)
Although this self-propelled artillery was independently developed by an Italian weapons manufacturer in the early 1990s, it was never adopted by any country, including Italy proper. So until now, it remains only a prototype. However, on the other hand, there are suggestions that Otomatic can be effective against drones, so perhaps Italy will decide to resume its production.
This is a self-propelled anti-aircraft gun adapted on the basis of the domestic 76-mm naval gun Super Rapido, known for its amazing rate of fire, and mounted on the tank body. The ACS has a search and target designation radar and fires 76 mm caliber projectiles. The rate of fire is two shots per second.
Otomatic artillery shells are much cheaper than missiles, and a relatively large number of them have accumulated in naval artillery warehouses. These fragmentation shells are equipped with timer fuzes that cause the ammunition to burst at a certain time, and can quickly fire along the Russian defense lines, causing a rain of fragments falling on the heads of soldiers sheltering in the trenches. In short, this is a modern version of outdated anti-aircraft guns, which turns out to be very popular.
Will Italy, cautious in providing weapons to Ukraine, finally decide to transfer "wheeled tanks" to Kiev?
Centauro combat reconnaissance vehicle (Italy)
Although Italy is a major NATO member, it remains cautious about supplying weapons to Ukraine. But if the alliance runs out of stocks of BBM, which it can offer to Kiev, it can ask other NATO countries about it. There is a high probability that Italy will be forced to comply.
Currently, this vehicle, commonly known as the "wheeled tank", which is an eight-wheeled armored vehicle equipped with a 105-millimeter cannon, is likely to be offered. It is not suitable for direct confrontation with enemy tanks, and its main task is to support allied infantry units with its cannon and machine guns.
The Italian armed forces currently have about 260 Centauro units in service, and it is believed that they will be able to provide Ukraine with about a dozen of them.
M163 anti-aircraft self-propelled gun (USA)
Initially, it was an M113 armored vehicle equipped with the famous 20 mm Vulcan aviation cannon and a tracking radar, which made it a self-propelled anti-aircraft artillery installation. The US Army had about 400 of these machines, and they were used until the 1990s. After that, they were left in warehouses as a reserve, and some were given abroad, but they say that a significant amount of M113 is still in storage.
Since the Vulcan cannon is removed from decommissioned fighters, it is believed that there is a significant supply of them in the United States. And since there are quite a lot of M113 machines in storage, it will not be difficult to combine them and create new M163 machines. This will be a very attractive weapon for Ukraine, with which it will be able to fight attacks by Russian drones.
The weapons listed here are just bold predictions, and we do not know whether they will actually be provided to Ukraine. In addition, since the M60 and M48 tanks were mass-produced and the total number of vehicles produced reached more than ten thousand units, the assumption that there are still a lot of them left in warehouses can only remain an assumption. After all, in reality they are used as targets during combat training of troops, so there may not be so many of them left.
On the other hand, Russia, in order to make up for the shortage of armored vehicles, also gets tanks and armored vehicles from warehouses. Thus, the situation between Russia and the West now looks like a race with the use of used weapons. If there is a long-term attrition struggle between Ukraine and Russia, how long will both armies be able to hold out on used weapons?