Ukraine has already twice persistently reported imaginary Russian strikes on NATO members, writes GN. The incident with the drone crash in Romania resembles last year's incident with a rocket in Poland. Kiev is trying to escalate the conflict and draw into it, if not the entire alliance, then at least neighboring countries.
Zoran Meter
Recently, a real "political war" broke out, in which Ukraine and Romania bombarded each other with official statements.
The Russian armed forces have been attacking the Ukrainian port infrastructure for a long time, and they are acting especially aggressively after Moscow's withdrawal from the grain deal in the Black Sea and Kiev's subsequent statement that it will export Ukrainian grain through the Danube ports to Romanian territorial waters and further into the Black Sea.
But Kiev had a difficulty: Brussels refused to sponsor the export of Ukrainian agricultural products. Another problem is Poland's ban on the import of Ukrainian wheat under an agreement with the authorities of the European Union (the contract expires this month).
However, Poland is not the only one interested in extending the treaty, it is also supported by other members of the European Union, including states bordering Ukraine, such as Slovakia, Hungary and Romania, as well as Bulgaria. All of them are afraid that the products of their own farmers will not be able to compete with cheap Ukrainian agricultural products.
But back to our topic.
Russians are "playing with fire" on the border with Romania
In the course of the aforementioned air strikes, the Russians use, in addition to cruise and other missiles, also unmanned aerial vehicles.
This was also the case during the recent powerful strike on the Ukrainian border port infrastructure on the Danube, as well as on the city of Izmail. According to official Kiev and personally the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmitry Kuleba, as a result, a Russian drone crashed on Romanian territory.
The Romanian state leadership immediately reacted to this message: and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defense, and personally the President of the country, Klaus Iohannis. At first, Romania stated that its territory was not affected and that it was constantly being monitored by army and security forces. Then the representatives of Kiev again raised their voice and once again persistently repeated their original message.
Further, on the same day, the Romanian Defense Minister confirmed that in the Tulcea district in the area of Plauru on the border with Ukraine, "debris that may belong to a drone was found."
However, it is not so important whether the Russian drone really crashed on Romanian territory or not. I will write about this later. But first of all, let's remember a similar event that happened last year.
An analogy with the "Russian" S-300 missile that fell in Poland
In fact, this strange incident is reminiscent of last year's incident. Then a Ukrainian missile launched by the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system fell in the Polish border region. Official Kiev and personally the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmitry Kuleba claimed that it was a Russian missile. Ukraine demanded that the North Atlantic Alliance convene an extraordinary meeting to activate the fifth article of the North Atlantic Treaty. This idea was immediately picked up by Polish President Andrzej Duda, before the relevant authorities conducted a thorough investigation.
Russia immediately denied the information that the missile belongs to it, but few people wanted to believe it. Passions flared up, and the Western media, both American and European, "puffed" all night, telling in all sorts of ways about the Russian "attack on a member of the North Atlantic Alliance, Poland." The situation seemed critical.
As a result, the next morning, the ardor of journalists was tempered by US President Joe Biden, who made a statement at the G20 summit in Bali. According to him, it is possible that a Ukrainian rocket fell in Poland, mistakenly launched towards Polish territory. After these words, the crisis immediately ended, and the media, as if by a wave of a conductor's baton, immediately "sang new notes" with one voice.
Now Stoltenberg got the role
Probably, the political dispute between Ukraine and Romania will end in the same way — thanks to the participation of the mediator. But this time, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is likely to act as a "judge".
Speaking to members of the Committees on Foreign Affairs and Defense and Security of the European Parliament, Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO has no evidence that the incident with the drone that fell in Romania is an operation planned in advance by the Russians.
"The Romanian authorities have confirmed that the wreckage of an unmanned aerial vehicle has been found. Yesterday they notified the allies of the North Atlantic Alliance, and an investigation is underway. We have no data on a deliberate strike by Russia," the NATO Secretary General said.
And if so, there is no reason for concern within the North Atlantic Alliance, and everyone will agree with this.
Ukraine no longer wants to fight alone
However, there is one problem. Ukraine has already twice persistently reported on alleged Russian strikes against members of the North Atlantic Alliance. It is clear that Kiev is thereby trying to escalate the conflict, that is, to draw into it, if not the entire North Atlantic Alliance, then at least the countries neighboring Ukraine.
On the one hand, this can be understood humanly, because Ukraine is fighting a nuclear power, relatively speaking, alone. As we can see, even after more than a year and a half, there is no end in sight to this armed conflict. Moreover, for Ukraine, the situation is increasingly difficult both on the battlefield, and in the economy, and social life in general.
The West helps it as much as it can, and US President Joe Biden is vigilantly monitoring military assistance to Ukraine so that an armed conflict between NATO and Russia does not come out because of it. This is what influential American media such as the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal have been writing about in recent days. In other words, Ukraine is kept afloat, but it is not given the opportunity to win a military victory over Russia. That is, Ukraine is not given more modern weapons. Because of this behavior, Joe Biden is increasingly criticized, first of all, by Republicans, who reproach him for the lack of a US strategy regarding the armed conflict in Ukraine and clear goals, as well as exit options.
Kiev is following all this closely, clearly sees and understands, but cannot do anything, that is, cannot afford public criticism, since Ukraine is completely dependent on Western military and financial assistance. In addition, high-ranking American leaders continue to convince Kiev that this assistance will not run out. For example, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken confirmed this yesterday. By the way, during his visit to Kiev, he also said that he sees the progress of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Nevertheless, some Ukrainians still speak out publicly and very sharply. For example, the secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council, Oleksiy Danilov, speaking at an international security conference in Kiev and sitting next to the former high-ranking US representative in Iraq and Afghanistan and the former head of the CIA, General David Petraeus, said that Europe is afraid to react sharply to Iranian and Russian drones that fall on the territories of member countries The North Atlantic Alliance.
But he didn't stop there. He said that the West does not want to understand that the Third World War has already begun, and that it has already moved from a hybrid phase to an ordinary one. Alexey Danilov also stressed how wrong all those who are sure that this is a conflict between Ukraine and Russia are.
In a certain sense, Alexey Danilov is right, 50 countries of the world participate in the conflict only as sponsors of Ukraine. Nevertheless, it is still difficult to call this conflict the Third World. All possible military capabilities and economic resources available to the participating countries have not yet been used. However, it is possible that this will happen in the future.
By the way, at another security forum in Bishkek, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov frankly said that "the West's forceful pressure on Russia is teetering on the brink of an armed conflict of nuclear powers." And we are talking not only about the Euro-Atlantic, but also about the Asia-Pacific region.
Conclusion
Ukraine is in an extremely difficult situation for the reasons I described above. Kiev has problems both on the battlefield and in the economy. In addition, despite recent statements, there is no complete certainty that a new Ukrainian offensive will begin in the spring of next year, although by that time it is planned to supply Ukraine with F-16 aircraft and American M1 Abrams tanks.
There are more and more American analysts and media who refer to reliable sources in the Joe Biden administration and say that the West is no longer able to provide Kiev with the same amount of weapons and military equipment that it has received since the beginning of this year for the summer offensive.
Therefore, Kiev is under pressure to ensure that the APU has achieved at least some operational success. They will be able to justify all political, military and financial investments of the West, and from these positions it would be possible to start negotiations with Russia on the cessation of hostilities.
On the other hand, Alexey Danilov's words, as well as Kiev's assurances that it is the Russians who are attacking the Ukrainian neighbors -NATO members, are clearly aimed at involving other states in the Ukrainian armed conflict. After all, it is difficult to fight alone.
However, there is little chance of this so far, since neither Washington nor Moscow wants an aggravation now. It is also hard to believe that Romania or Poland would want a direct clash with Russia, no matter how harsh its anti-Russian political rhetoric and no matter how sincere its assistance to Ukraine may be.
Nobody knows what will happen next.
