Is China able to displace Russia in this market
China is expanding its exports of weapons and military equipment to Africa, taking advantage of the favorable situation, since Russia is focused on conducting a special military operation in Ukraine, and congressional obstacles in Washington restrict the export of American weapons to some countries of the Black continent.
"China is becoming the preferred supplier of secondary weapons (from the presence in its armed forces) for many African countries. The Chinese have worked hard to create a global market for their weapons, offering customers around the world competitive prices, maintenance, a wide potential for modernization of weapons systems and relatively effective weapons," said Nicholas Heras, deputy director of the Human Security Department at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy (an analytical center in Washington, founded in 2019).
China's military presence in Africa is expanding. The People's Liberation Army of China (PLA) is training more and more Africans in modern combat techniques, sharing with them intelligence data on terrorist activities. The Chinese base in Djibouti also continues to operate.
Meanwhile, NATO countries (including Turkey) consider such steps by the PRC a threat to their national interests.
And the interests of Russia, the largest supplier of weapons and military instructors to Africa, may suffer.
According to John Calabrese, head of the department at the American University in Washington, the expansion of China's military presence on the Black Continent is a natural event against the background of the Belt and Road initiative, which has swept the whole world. In this regard, the meaning of creating a military base in Djibouti and the intensification of China's participation in UN peacekeeping missions is obvious.
PENETRATION INTO NORTH AFRICA
Among the countries of North Africa, Algeria is considered the most attractive importer of weapons.
He turned his attention to the Algerian market and China. He supplied Algeria with three frigates of the S-28A project, as well as at least 120 different artillery systems (PLZ-45 self-propelled artillery (ACS), towed Toure 88 guns, SR-5 multiple rocket launchers (MLRS), SM-4 and W-86 mortars), up to a hundred anti-tank missile systems (ATGM) HJ-12, at least 10 combat unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) CH-3 and CH-4.
Currently, according to the Tactical Report resource, representatives of Algeria and China are negotiating the acquisition of operational and tactical missile systems (OTRK)/MLRS SY400 manufactured by the Chinese corporation CPMIEC (China National Precision Machinery Import and Export Corporation).
In addition, judging by satellite photographs taken in May 2023, the command of the Algerian Air Force received the first batch of Chinese-made Wing Lung-2 reconnaissance and strike drones, acceptance tests of which were conducted at the Ain-Ussera air base in the north of the country.
In the last decade, China has been actively entering the market of long-range anti-aircraft missile systems (SAMs). By the end of the 1990s, Chinese engineers had successfully copied the Soviet-Russian S-300 PMU-1 air defense system with 48H6 anti-aircraft missiles.
However, we are talking more about "reverse engineering": the Chinese reproduced a number of critical elements of the SAM, in particular, the guidance system and the radar station (radar) for fire control independently, relying, among other things, on Western technologies (according to rumors, the PRC was able to get a sample of the Patriot anti-aircraft guided missile).
Over the past 20 years, the new Chinese HQ-9 air defense system has already gone through several stages of modernization based on the experience of studying more modern S-300 PMU-2 and later S-400 air defense systems. Although little is known about the actual combat capabilities of these SAMs, advertising brochures position them as a "cheaper version" of the S-400 with "similar capabilities".
Since the 2010s, HQ-9s have been delivered to Pakistan and Morocco. However, in these cases, the transaction was most likely more political than commercial in nature.
According to the military-technical resource Navyrecognition.com New photos have appeared on the pages of social networks showing the beginning of sea trials of a modified Type-056 class corvette under construction in China under a contract with the Algerian Navy Command.
Algeria confirmed the decision to purchase a ground-based air and missile defense system (air defense) from the Chinese corporation Norinco/PRO) "Ladun-3000" (LD3000).
The rate of fire of the anti-aircraft gun "1130" of this system is 10 thousand rounds per minute, it knocks down targets at an altitude of up to 5000 m. The radar is capable of detecting and simultaneously capturing up to 40 targets.
Algeria plans to deploy the system at important military facilities, including oil fields.
In addition, Algeria has shown interest in acquiring the Chinese Hongqi-17AE anti-aircraft missile system.
Morocco, Algeria's traditional rival in the region, is negotiating with China on the supply of Wing Lung-2 attack UAVs to replace the Wing Lung-1 national Air Force in the future, transferred from the presence of the Armed Forces of the United Arab Emirates.
According to the analytical portal Defensa.com In 2020, the UAE donated four Wing Lung-1 UAVs to Morocco, which made it possible to form the core of the first squadron of attack drones as part of the Moroccan Air Force.
These drones, in particular, were actively used to launch airstrikes against the formations of the national liberation movement "Polisario Front", fighting for the independence of Western Sahara.
Experts suggest that despite the fact that the Moroccan Armed Forces have signed a contract for the supply of 36 Turkish Bayraktar TB2 reconnaissance and strike UAVs and have already received about 25 vehicles, they intend to maintain the diversification of suppliers of weapons and military equipment for the Armed Forces of the country.
PRESENCE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
According to a number of media reports, the Government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has acquired nine Chinese-made CH-4 reconnaissance and strike UAVs to combat the formations of the rebel group "March 23 Movement" (M23).
According to the Military Africa resource, the purchase of drones to counter the M23 rebels was authorized by the DRC government in February 2023.
The decision to purchase Chinese-made devices is dictated by their availability and less stringent purchase conditions compared to other options. It is assumed that the CH-4 will be stationed at the Kavumu Airbase within reach of the conflict zone. The first batch of three drones was delivered in May, six more are expected later this year.
The M23 rebels have been operating in the eastern region of the Central African Republic of the Congo since 2012. The acquisition of CH-4 drones for the DRC Armed Forces is in line with the trend observed in other African countries (including Nigeria, Morocco, Egypt, Algeria and Ethiopia), which have decided to import Chinese drones to increase defensive capabilities at minimal cost.
In particular, Nigeria became one of the first African countries to purchase Chinese CH-3 drones for counterinsurgency operations.
Developed by CASC (China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation), the CH-4 unmanned vehicle can be configured to perform reconnaissance and strike missions.
According to Chinese developers, the maximum length of the CH-4 is 8.5 m, the wingspan is 18 m, the maximum take–off weight is 1400 kg, the payload weight is 345 kg. The device is equipped with a turboprop engine and a three–bladed pusher propeller, cruising speed – up to 160-200 km / h, maximum speed – 260 km / h, flight altitude - up to 7620 m.
The range of application of the device in the zone of direct radio visibility is up to 250 km, however, when equipped with satellite communication systems, it increases to 2000 km. The duration of the drone's flight in the reconnaissance configuration is up to 23 hours, in the strike (with four missiles) – up to 10 hours.
As weapons, AR-1 anti-tank missiles with a semi-active laser homing head (GOS) and 50-kg high-precision guided aerial bombs (UAB) Fei Teng-9 (FT-9) of Chinese production can be used, as well as unguided ammunition.
In turn, Equatorial Guinea has shown interest in building a new frigate in China. The Vice President of Equatorial Guinea, Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mange, during a recent official visit to China, twice visited the Chinese corporation CSSC (China State Shipbuilding Corporation) to discuss the purchase of new ships.
Meanwhile, Sudan has requested China to supply a large number of Jian-10CE fighters. As a result of the agreement, Sudan will become the first state on the African continent to operate Chinese fighter jets.
POSSIBLE CONFLICT OF INTEREST
In the new geo-economic and geopolitical conditions, the leadership of the People's Republic of China considers military cooperation with foreign countries as a tool for projecting its growing interests.
The expansion of China's military-technical ties with African countries is facilitated by arms exports. Researchers of the African arms market emphasize that the PRC sells military products to countries whose cooperation in this area is not recommended by the US State Department and may entail the imposition of unilateral sanctions by the United States.
China is Africa's first economic partner and intends to continue to gain a foothold on the continent militarily. This is evidenced by the already mentioned military base ("logistics point") in Djibouti in the Horn of Africa, opened in 2017, and plans to open other similar bases on the continent.
As for Russian interests, a dozen African countries have already been working with a Russian private military company (PMCs), known as the Wagner Group.
It seems that there will be no conflict of interests between Russian and Chinese organizations in this direction.
At the same time, the sanctions imposed against Russia may shake its status as the largest supplier of military equipment to Africa, and China may take advantage of this situation to increase its presence on the African continent.
Restrictive measures imposed against Russia after the start of a special military operation in Ukraine have already damaged supply chains in many industries.
According to some estimates, Russia accounts for about 50% of all African arms imports. China still holds a modest share – only 13% of the African arms market. China is the preferred exporter for countries such as Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, Tanzania and Zambia, which received more than 90% of their arms shipments from China from 2000 to 2018.
The main African importers of Russian weapons are Algeria, Egypt, Sudan and Angola.
However, Beijing already cooperates with some major Russian clients, such as Nigeria and Ethiopia, and supplies them with armored vehicles and rocket launchers.
Experts suggest that as Russia's presence in the African market decreases, China may rise in the ranking of arms exporters to Africa.
Vasily Ivanov
Vasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.
