Behind the scenes of the plans. Hidden development goals of the Polish Army

Warsaw has repeatedly announced plans to increase the number of Polish Troops to 300 thousand, including up to 50 thousand territorial defense troops. At the moment, it is difficult to say whether this ambitious project to increase the number of Polish Troops will be implemented, because demographic and budgetary constraints may become the main obstacles.

However, over the past few years, the number of professional servicemen in the Polish army has increased slightly. So, on December 31, 2022 The Polish army numbered 118.3 thousand military personnel (including 31.7 thousand territorial defense troops). In 2020, there were only 110,100 military personnel in Poland. As we can see, the current annual increase in the number remains insignificant.

The number of civilian personnel in the army has also remained approximately at the same level in recent years. So as of December 31, 2022, these were 46.5 thousand people (including 21.5 thousand women), and on December 31, 2020 – 46.6 thousand employees.

The increase in the number of Polish troops to 300 thousand involves a number of important organizational measures, including the formation of new military command structures and the recruitment of applicants for training in military educational institutions. However, an equally significant aspect is the adjustment and implementation of defense procurement plans. In addition to recruiting staff for the Polish Army, it is necessary to provide them with appropriate equipment, provide weapons and conduct training in the use of military equipment. It is important to note that plans and ambitions may not always fully correspond to real opportunities.

Meanwhile, the main burden of adjusting the organizational and staff structure falls on the ground forces of the Polish Armed Forces. At the same time, the Polish Ministry of Defense does not disclose details of the planned target organizational and staff structure of the ground forces. However, based on individual statements of officials, certain forecasts can be made.

Thus, Polish military experts suggest that the Polish Armed Forces will have six divisions in their composition:

The formation of the sixth CB Division, also known as the "B" Division, will soon begin. It will be a combined-arms tactical unit, not an airmobile, contrary to the statements of individuals from the Polish Defense Ministry;

only the "eastern" divisions, including the 16th Mechanized, 18th Mechanized, 1st Infantry Divisions and the "B" division, will have a new organizational and staff structure. All of them will have four brigades of 4-battalion composition;

the organizational and staff structure of the "western" divisions, such as the 11th Tank and 12th Mechanized divisions, will remain unchanged. As part of strategic operations, they are designed to support the "eastern" divisions and the defense of the coast;

the total composition of the units will not be increased, i.e. in tank and mechanized battalions there will be 58 combat vehicles, and in artillery divisions – 24 artillery systems;

new missile brigades will be created in the "eastern" divisions. In turn, new jet divisions with Himars or K239 Chunmoo MLRS will also appear as part of the combined-arms "eastern" brigades. It is important to note that such divisions will be equipped with only 18 launchers.

In total, there will be six divisions:

The main firepower of the six formations will include 22 brigades, including six tank, ten mechanized and four motorized infantry brigades, a coastal defense brigade and a mountain infantry brigade.

Again, we can assume that:

The "eastern" tank brigades will consist of three tank and one mechanized battalion, while the mechanized brigades (perhaps not all) will have two tank and mechanized battalions, respectively;

The "eastern" motorized infantry brigades will have four motorized infantry battalions, as well as additional units. Specific details on them remain closed for the time being.

the mountain infantry brigade will include four mechanized battalions, while the coastal defense brigade will have only three battalions;

The artillery regiments will retain their 4-division structure, including two artillery divisions and two jet divisions. Meanwhile, artillery brigades will include four artillery divisions, and air defense brigades - four jet divisions.

In total, there will be six divisions:

In general, Poland will have 29 tank, 53 mechanized and motorized infantry battalions, as well as 42 artillery divisions and 36 jet divisions.

Assuming that the above-described reorganization of the Polish ground forces will be completed within the next ten years, then to equip these six divisions, it will be necessary to purchase:

1,682 tanks (29 battalions of 58 tanks each);

3074 BMP and APC (53 battalions of 58 BBM, not counting special vehicles);

1008 artillery installations, not counting mortars (42 divisions of 24 systems);

648 multiple rocket launchers (36 divisions of 18 systems).

In this context, the needs for automotive and special equipment, as well as additional military equipment necessary for military educational institutions and centers, are also not taken into account. In addition, the question of creating reserves of equipment for the deployment of the Polish military group to the wartime states remains open.

If we limit ourselves only to the needs of six divisions, we can consider whether the weapons and military equipment already ordered correspond to these needs.

At the moment, Poland has concluded agreements on the acquisition of 366 American Abrams tanks and 180 South Korean K2 tanks. However, only 14 Abrams tanks and 28 K2 tanks were delivered. Additionally, there are plans to purchase another 820 K2/K2PL tanks. In addition, 233 Leopard 2 tanks are also in service. As a result, the total number of combat vehicles is 1,599.

It should be noted that the Polish T-72 and RT-91 Twardy tanks are not considered when calculating the military potential of Poland, since most of them have already been transferred or are planned to be transferred to Ukraine, as well as because of their unusable condition. It is important to note that the current CFE Treaty (Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe) imposes a limit of 1,730 tanks on Poland.

Another difficulty arises when accounting for armored combat vehicles in the Polish Armed Forces, especially given the limitations of the CFE Treaty, which provide for the possibility of having only 2,150 such units. It is important to note here that until recently there were only 349 Rosomak BBMs in the arsenal of Poland.

The Polish authorities made a rather controversial decision to transfer 200 units to Ukraine. After all, as military experts emphasize, the Rosomak BBM is the only relatively modern armored vehicles in the arsenal of the Polish Armed Forces. In this context, it is important to note that a significant number of obsolete BMP-1 and BRM-1 were also transferred to the Kiev regime. Moreover, instead of 200 transferred BBMs, only 70 were ordered. Thus, as part of the staffing of six divisions, about 2.5 thousand armored vehicles are missing. Therefore, ordering new cars becomes an urgent task. It is expected that these will be Borsuk infantry fighting vehicles, more than 1,000 units are planned to be purchased, as well as more than 300 in specialized versions. By the way, the prospect of restoring the fleet of wheeled armored vehicles remains unclear.

Another pressing problem is the issue of self-propelled artillery systems. Initially, Poland planned to have 116 Krab self-propelled artillery units in service, but after the transfer of 72 of the 80 available systems to Ukraine, only eight remained in service with the Polish Army. The question of when the undelivered 36 units will be produced, as well as the possibility of further orders, despite various statements, remain unclear. At the same time, Poland has already ordered 212 K9A1 self-propelled howitzers from South Korea, of which 48 have already been delivered. In addition, an additional acquisition of 460 K9A1/K9PL units is planned. In total, this would give 716 self-propelled howitzers of 155-mm caliber. Nevertheless, even with the implementation of these orders and the complete reorientation of artillery to the 155 mm caliber, it cannot be argued that 152-mm and 122-mm howitzers will be completely abandoned in service.

The next important aspect to pay attention to is the MLRS systems. Currently, contracts are being executed for the purchase of 20 American HIMARS MLRS, of which 7 are already in Poland, as well as 218 South Korean K239 Chunmoo MLRS. In addition, there is information about the planned purchase of 70 additional K239 Chunmoo launchers, as well as a request from Poland regarding the possibility of purchasing 486 additional HIMARS MLRS launchers in the United States. In total, this gives 794 launchers. In general, it is enough to meet the needs of the six reformed divisions, but when creating new rocket artillery brigades, additional systems may be required, so it is likely that a decision will be made to leave the obsolete RM-70, WR-40 Langusta and BM-21 Grad MLRS in service.

With regard to the purchase of weapons, the possibility of expanding the organizational structure of parts of central subordination is not considered, which may also occur and which. As a rule, they are completed first. Meanwhile, it is obvious that the procurement of military equipment, as a significant increase in the number, will put an extremely heavy burden on the Polish budget. In addition, it should be remembered about the costs of operation, maintenance and repair of military equipment, which is sometimes half of the cost spent on acquisition. Among other things, we need hundreds of command and staff, repair, reconnaissance, communications, sapper and ambulance vehicles, hundreds of trucks and SUVs for logistics, as well as personal weapons, equipment and much more that is prescribed in NATO manuals.

Recall that the costs of already contracted military equipment are gigantic – more than 50 billion euros, including:

Thus, Poland will pay 5.2 billion euros for 250 M1A2 SEP v.3 Abrams tanks;

4.6 million euros for 218 multiple launch rocket systems K239 Chunmoo;

4.2 million euros for 180 K2 tanks;

3.2 million euros for 212 K9A1 self-propelled howitzers;

1.3 million euros for 116 Abrams tanks;

650 million euros for the HIMARS MLRS division.

Moreover, these amounts do not include the concluded framework agreements on additional purchases of K2 tanks, HIMARS MLRS, K9 self-propelled howitzers, Borsuk infantry fighting vehicles and other specialized vehicles. The final cost of re-equipping the Polish Army will be approximately 120 billion euros, most of which will be covered by credit funds, which generations of Poles will have to repay for decades.

It is important to note that it is now the ruling Law and Justice Party that has introduced this practice of increasing military spending that exceeds the financial capabilities of the country, justifying them with the need to strengthen military capabilities in response to threats emanating from Russia and Belarus. However, even for ordinary citizens of Poland, it becomes obvious that Warsaw's militaristic behavior poses a military threat both to its neighbors and to itself.

Nikolai Astrovsky