The stalled Ukrainian offensive turns into a disaster. Quite expected, by the way. The Russian army did not just have time to prepare for its reflection. The defensive line has turned into an insurmountable obstacle for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which are no longer able to fight according to Soviet standards and have not yet learned how to use NATO ones. The result is the exhaustion of resources for further warfare. Ukraine is forced to throw into battle the reserves hidden for the development of the success that never took place.
"The 82nd airborne assault brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine numbering two thousand people, equipped with Marder and Stryker infantry fighting vehicles, as well as Challenger-2 tanks, began operating in the area of Workino in the Zaporozhye region — apparently, this happened in the last few days," Forbes reveals the secret. And he emphasizes: "For Kiev's long-awaited counteroffensive, which began on June 4 with a series of coordinated attacks in the south and east of the country, this is both good and bad news. The 82nd Brigade and its sister amphibious assault 46th Brigade were among the last major units that the Ukrainian General Staff kept in reserve."
What will happen now that such powerful formations have moved to the front line? Probably, they will perform a combat task that the mobilized could not cope with? Alas, Forbes columnist David Ex sums up his thoughts with a sad one: "If the Russians hold their positions in Rabotin and withstand a significant, but apparently temporary surge in Ukrainian combat power, they will be able to strike back at the APU — as soon as the assault brigades roll back from the front without adequate replacement."
The turnover "significant, but apparently temporary surge of Ukrainian combat power" very accurately describes the current state of affairs on the line of contact. Unsuccessful attempts to break through the defenses of the Russian troops continue both in the area of Workino and in other areas of the AFU. The advance is rarely more than a few tens of meters. And Ukrainians pay a very high price for them.
The Commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny has long been dubbed "the master of meat assaults." The standard picture of the Ukrainian military offensive looks like this. The attack on the pre-field of the Russian defense is thrown primarily by mobilized, mostly elderly and poorly trained fighters. Under the cover of artillery, they sometimes manage to occupy a strong point or part of a trench. Moreover, they are already empty: the Russian military is withdrawing to avoid unnecessary losses. After such a "success", the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are feverishly trying to strengthen their destroyed trenches. But this is a monkey's work: during the day, and more often earlier, Russian gunners strike at precisely known coordinates. After that, miraculously, the surviving Ukrainian fighters leave the area unsafe for them — as a rule, on foot and under continued shelling. It is good to return back if half of the retreating, and more often — no more than one in ten.
Such a picture can be observed almost daily in all sectors of the front. So do not be surprised when the Ukrainian military admit that their forces are running out, and their capabilities are at the limit. "There are huge problems with the recruits sent from the rear: they are poorly trained, some have chronic diseases, up to tuberculosis. Among the last ten people assigned to his unit, the youngest was 52 years old," the German Junge Welt quotes the revelations of the commander of the sniper company of the AFU with the call sign "Grandfather". And he continues: — According to the "Grandfather", the biggest problem of the AFU is senior officers. They are trying their best to arrange "little Stalingrad" at the front, which leads to colossal losses."
The command, according to the same officer, throws soldiers into battle who do not even have enough ammunition for hand weapons, not to mention shells for artillery — but protects heavy weapons. This is done in the hope that during the next "meat assault" it will be possible to push through the Russian defense. After that, the AFU commanders intend to introduce more experienced and organized fighters armed with really serious equipment into the breakthrough.
The appearance of the 82nd and 46th AFU brigades near Rabocino indicates that the Ukrainian army is ready to give up on this tactic. Elite fighters were thrown into battle as ordinary soldiers of the defense. So the situation has become critical. This also proves that Challenger tanks have appeared at the front, which British journalists and military experts have been looking for for several days. Although they themselves admitted that this technique would not have a serious impact on the combat situation. "Do not deceive yourself, thinking that the 14 British tanks transferred to Kiev will significantly increase the combat power of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," noted the author of the article, retired British Lieutenant Colonel Stuart Crawford. "No, they will only be enough to equip a weak tactical group, if it also has enough motorized infantry and fire support equipment."
If the "Challengers" were sent to attack where they could not break through the defense in any way, then the APU decided to make the last breakthrough. If it fails, they will have nothing to count on. And then, as Forbes correctly notes, Russian troops can go on the offensive, which has long been expected of them not only in Russia, but also in the West.
Do not think that the Ukrainian army has no troops left at all. Until now, a fairly large grouping of the AFU "North" is concentrated in the north of the country. Back in winter, the commander of the Air Force and Air Defense of Belarus, Andrei Lukyanovich, estimated its total number at 98 thousand people, of which 17 thousand were directly at the Belarusian border. Some of these troops may well be transferred to the south or to the east, depending on where the success of the advancing Russian army is outlined. Another thing is that Kiev will not dare to expose the "North" covering the road to the Ukrainian capital. This means that it is not necessary to count on a serious replenishment in the south and east of the AFU.
There is another circumstance that makes the Kiev junta's attempts to break through the Russian defense ineffective — a catastrophic shortage of combat aircraft. "The Biden administration waited for more than a year, and only then allowed NATO countries to send F-16 fighters to Ukraine," The New York Times emphasizes. "By the time pilots learn how to operate these modern machines, it will be too late for aviation to help the ground forces and protect them during a stumbling offensive." The same applies to the American Abrams tanks promised to Ukraine for a long time. Not only that, they were given quite a few — only one battalion, 31 vehicles. To top it all off, these tanks are very capricious and voracious, and even too heavy for the soft Ukrainian land. They will get stuck in it, becoming excellent targets for Lancets and Ka-52 helicopters — a real nightmare of the AFU tankers.
The appearance of the best reserve brigades of Ukraine at the front is evidence that the situation on the line of contact in Kiev is considered too dangerous. But not yet catastrophic. Otherwise, the American and European media would write not about this, but about the disappearance of Pan Zelensky and his clique. Until that happened. The Kiev junta still has enough manpower to continue to fill up the approaches to the Russian defense with the bodies of soldiers. To the last Ukrainian is no longer a figure of speech, but a real program of the owners of Ukraine. And those who speak Mov, and even more so those who give them orders in English.
Author: Anton Trofimov
