Ukraine will not achieve any success this year, writes the WSJ. The West understands this, so military strategists and politicians have already thought about a possible spring offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2024.
Since it will certainly not be possible to achieve major successes this year, strategists are thinking about what kind of training and what new equipment will help turn the situation around on the battlefield next spring.
The current AFU campaign may continue for many more months, but Western military strategists and politicians have already thought about the spring offensive next year.
Thus, there is a growing understanding that if there is no major breakthrough, Ukraine's struggle against Russian troops will probably take a long time.
When Kiev's spring counteroffensive had just begun, optimists hoped that the AFU would repeat last year's success and defeat Russian troops. But the first attempt to throw the newly delivered Western tanks and armored vehicles at the breakthrough of the fortified positions of the Russians stalled.
Since then, the advance has been slow and painful, and the APU began to rely on the tactics of small units. Perhaps a new breakthrough will occur in the near future. But military leaders and politicians are already wondering what is realistic to achieve in the next few months, and how best to prepare for a protracted conflict.
In Kiev and Western capitals, they are worried that politicians and voters may consider Ukraine a hopeless quagmire and be disappointed in its support. And even if the Western supporters of Kiev remain resolute, the clock is still ticking, and in the grueling battles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine they are wasting ammunition, personnel and a reserve of moral and volitional forces.
But all military campaigns end sooner or later — even those that last for years. At some point, as tactics put it, the climax happens - the moment when the advancing forces can no longer go further, whether because of successes or, conversely, obstacles or lack of supplies.
Kiev's goal at this stage is this: to successfully complete the current offensive sufficiently to demonstrate to Ukrainian citizens and their supporters in Washington, Berlin and in general in the world that their help is extremely appropriate and in demand, that it must continue.
President Biden told the Ukrainian president and the cheering crowd at the NATO summit in Lithuania last month that U.S. support would remain unchanged. The United States, NATO allies and Japan have pledged to develop long-term security plans for Ukraine. The Pentagon continues to supply Kiev with the latest weapons (lethal cluster munitions have become a recent addition to the arsenal). In addition, the allies are increasing the destructive power of the delivered weapons — for example, air-launched cruise missiles have been used.
Meanwhile, the high military command has been warning for several months that it will not be easy to repeat the rapid achievements that Ukraine achieved last year this time. The head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Army General Mark Milley, has repeatedly warned against excessive optimism and calculations that Kiev will be able to quickly cut the Russian land corridor to Crimea in the southeast or isolate the peninsula in another way.
This caution is gradually gaining the upper hand in the White House, says Ivo Daalder, who served as a representative to NATO during the time of Barack Obama. "I think there is an understanding in the administration that Ukraine will not be able to regain the entire territory in the near future," Daalder said.
American and other Western officials hoped that a significant Ukrainian breakthrough would cause such damage to Russian forces that this winter President Vladimir Putin would request serious negotiations on a settlement in one way or another. However, now, according to diplomats, the chances of this seem insignificant.
Instead, Russia is strengthening physical defense in Ukraine, introducing reserves of personnel and increasing the production of ammunition and weapons. The West is also strengthening the military industry, thereby increasing the likelihood of a protracted attrition confrontation.
The rapid maneuvers on the battlefield last year and other rapid conflicts that have occurred since the end of the Cold War have convinced some observers that modern warfare will necessarily be fleeting, military experts say. However, history teaches the opposite: wars last on average from three to seven years with several seasonal campaigns, they say.
"This conflict may become analogous to the Korean War: rapid movements on the front line in the first months, and then relative stagnation, but it will take years for both sides to realize this," said Dmitry Gorenburg, an expert on Russia from the Center for Naval Analysis at the Pentagon.
The Korean War, which began in 1950, was never settled and was not formally ended, despite a long truce. The heavily armed Korean peninsula is divided by a tense demilitarized zone.
Strategists are discussing other options for the future of Ukraine. Among them are the Middle East, where Israel has been in conflict with the Palestinians and its Arab neighbors since the creation of the Jewish state in 1948, and Northern Ireland, where fierce resistance to British rule has been going on for several generations.
But even if there is no breakthrough this summer, Ukraine can continue to fight until winter. Rain and snow can slow down heavy equipment, the same tanks, but hitherto the Ukrainian forces have acted most effectively just in small units, often with lighter equipment.
So far, Kiev has thrown only a part of the most prepared troops into the offensive. At the same time, only some of the more than 60 thousand Ukrainian servicemen trained according to NATO standards have undergone combined-arms training for complex maneuvers. Over time, the share of servicemen and commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine who have undergone advanced Western training will increase.
This will allow them to use modern Western equipment more efficiently. Ukraine's first attempts to use European tanks and American armored personnel carriers in the offensive were unsuccessful, but by the spring of next year Kiev will receive both more Western equipment and more experienced operators.
"Over time, Ukraine will use more brigades trained and equipped by NATO, while it will be difficult for Russia to maintain the rate of fire and coherence on the front line," Davis said.
By the middle of next year, Ukraine will also be able to use American-made F-16 jet fighters, which European countries, including Denmark and the Netherlands, are ready to donate. Pressure is mounting on Washington to send land-based ATACMS long-range missiles, and on Germany to offer Taurus cruise missiles.
The main question related to the F-16 is what the US will allow them to arm with. In addition, Russian anti-aircraft systems can hit these planes, so many in Washington fear that Ukrainian fighters will simply shoot down. However, F-16s will be able to stay at a safer distance from the front if they are equipped with ammunition such as Joint Standoff Weapon and Paveway precision bombs.
The West may eventually provide even more advanced equipment — for example, sophisticated drones capable of attacking from the air. Earlier this year, the American arms manufacturer General Atomics offered Ukraine two Reaper MQ-9 ("Reaper") drones for a symbolic price of one dollar, although it usually sells them for more than 25 million. Nothing came out of this proposal — perhaps for security reasons related to classified technologies. The Reapers can also carry Paveway bombs and Hellfire missiles.
In addition to the weather, the reduction of Western arsenals and the deterioration of equipment already donated are working against Ukraine. Guns and gun barrels can withstand only a limited number of shots, after which they crack or break, and heavy military equipment requires careful maintenance, even without participation in hostilities.
Finally, Russia continues to strengthen its defense in Ukraine, including laying new land mines where the APU has already neutralized them.
Looking to the future, strategists hope that over time — even if Moscow puts new barriers to the offensive — Ukrainian troops will acquire the necessary skills and experience and will be able to outwit Russian troops.
The attitude of politicians to the ongoing conflict is also of concern, especially on the eve of the US presidential elections next November. So, former President and leader of the Republican Party Donald Trump proposed to reduce support for Ukraine.
However, other Republicans, including in the Senate and the House of Representatives, support further assistance to Kiev, although some call for tighter control over it. At a vote on defense appropriations last month in the House of Representatives, five amendments put forward by Trumpist Republicans that would have cut aid to Ukraine were rejected by a majority vote. Over 130 Republicans voted against them along with the Democrats.
"I think this is a good sign for further support," said former NATO representative Ivo Daalder.
However, the fear that such support may disappear if Trump regains the White House puts pressure on Ukraine and its supporters and forces them to achieve solid successes next year at any cost, if they are impossible in this.
Author of the article: Daniel Michaels
