Politics determines a lot, military successes decide everything
The world market of armaments and military equipment (VIV) can be represented as a supporting structure of the system of global modern military-economic relations. Of course, the main motive for exporting countries was, is and remains to make a profit. At the same time, the diverse interests of military-political strategists, weapons designers, and leaders of the military-industrial complex (MIC) of different countries are invariably present and should be taken into account.
DIVERSE INTERESTS
Military and political strategists are interested in projecting the military power of their states in different regions of the world. In expanding the geography of their countries' presence on the world stage. In influencing the military policy of importing countries in a direction that satisfies the interests of exporting countries. In achieving a globally significant aggregate potential of partners for military-political integration (and often for a specific military coalition).
VIVT designers have an additional opportunity to test and refine new models of weapons, expand the sphere of technological superiority in production in certain areas. In this sense, Russia's special military operation in Ukraine is a huge training ground on both sides of the front, where the "arms race" is proceeding at an accelerated pace.
Finally, for the heads of military programs, "arms magnates" and the management of specific military-industrial complex facilities, it is important to completely eliminate the idle production capacity of the military industry. For example, the chronic "shell starvation" experienced by the Ukrainian side during its military-industrial complex is associated not so much with the weakness of the military-industrial complex of Kiev's Western suppliers, but with the caution of arms corporations, taught by the bitter experience of ruining their colleagues after the end of the Cold War.
MARKETS OF DIFFERENT COLORS
Currently, the dependence of the importing states on the exporting states of ViVT is increasing in the following positions.
First: the progressive dynamics of quantitative parameters of service maintenance.
Second: a permanent increase in the supply of spare parts and ammunition.
And the third position: the unprecedented scale of modernization of those samples of VIVT, which at the time of delivery fit into the global technological trend, but eventually became obsolete.
These positions determine the emphasis on the conclusion of long-term transactions between exporters and importers.
A widely branched system of norms and interstate agreements has developed, which regulates the international arms trade in relation to 93% of the world's supply volume.
Another 6% of deliveries belong to the illegal gray market by its legal nature. There is no wide publicity here. And at the same time, there is practically no opposition from the highest executive and administrative authorities: they quietly give the go-ahead.
Finally, the black market does not fit in with the accepted norms and international agreements in any way. However, this is only 1% of the world's supplies of VIVT.
Currently, exporting countries are increasingly actively going to provide preferential loans. They practice deliveries on leasing terms much more carefully.
CATCH UP AND OVERTAKE
For further discussion, we will highlight three five-year plans. The first five–year plan covers 2010-2014, the second – 2015-2019, the third - 2020-2024.
However, the third five-year plan will end only in 18 months. Therefore, we will focus on 2022, comparing it with the last year of the second five-year plan (and not being embarrassed by analogies with the national economic plans of the times of socialism).
The comparison of five-year plans allows us to express in figures the latest trends in the field of international supplies of the main types of conventional weapons. If their total volume for the first five-year plan is taken as 100%, then in the second five-year plan it reaches 105.5%.
When comparing the time intervals of 2017-2019 and 2020-2022, there is a decrease to 97.2%. This decline has the following explanation. Among the importing countries of Central and South America and Africa, the prevailing opinion is that maintaining the previous volumes of military imports will become a tangible weight on the body of their economic organisms. Extraneous factors also played a role, first of all, the impact of the covid pandemic.
This decrease could even reach 94-95%. But everything was blocked by 2022. Supplies of VIVT to Ukraine and individual states of the Arab world have sharply increased.
Throughout the second five-year plan, the world's top five arms exporters maintained their positions in this order: the United States, Russia, France, Germany, and China. The same order was maintained until 2022, when China supplanted Germany. There is reason to believe that the composition of the top five will not change until the end of the third five-year plan.
These top five now account for 77% of all global arms exports.
RUSSIA AND THE USA: THE GAP IS GROWING
The strongest player in the global arms market is the United States. We compare 2010, the beginning of the first five-year plan, with 2022. We have a 28% increase in American arms exports.
The change in the share of the United States in the total volume of global arms supplies turned out to be amazing. This share is close to 40%. For comparison, the rest of the top five countries had the following share: Russia – 16.1%; France – 11.1%; China – 5.4%; Germany – 4.6%.
The United States is very pleased with the sharp weakening of Russia's position in the global arms market, because the Americans themselves have made a significant contribution to this weakening. We are talking about anti-Russian sanctions. A large gap has formed between the United States and Russia in the export of major types of conventional weapons.
If the export of Russian weapons for the first five-year plan is taken as 100%, then for the second we will have 82%. And in 2020-2022, the annual decline continued.
96 states have bought weapons from the United States. The main direction of American exports is the Middle East. It accounts for 44.1% of the total volume of deliveries. The number one importer in this direction is Saudi Arabia.
Among American arms manufacturers, aircraft manufacturing corporations received the largest profit from exports. There are significantly more of their aircraft in the Air Forces of Europe, Australia and Japan.
Before the start of the SVO, Russian weapons were bought in 48 countries. The structure of Russian exports was dominated by military aircraft, air defense and missile defense systems, rocket and artillery complexes. According to the results of the second five - year plan, the share of the leading importers of Russian weapons looked like this: India – 32%, Egypt - 13%, Iraq - 8%, China - 7%, Algeria - 6%, Vietnam – 4%.
Over the years 2020-2022, the import of Russian weapons by country decreased as follows: India (-24%), Saudi Arabia (-54%), Qatar (-34%). Australia (-61%), South Korea (-67%), Pakistan (-79%), Japan (-41%), USA (-72%).
In the same years, the volume of Russian arms supplies to China (+21%) and to Egypt (+29%) increased. But with respect to these countries, it is worth comparing the indicators of January-May 2022 and January-May 2023. With China, it turns out -45%, with Egypt -32%.
IF ONLY YES IF
Let's resort to the subjunctive mood. What could be Russia's position on the world market of VIVT, if not for sanctions, if traditional importers had not succumbed to pressure from Washington? When answering this question, it is necessary to understand with what baggage Russia entered the 2020s.
Military-technical innovations have become much more noticeable. President Vladimir Putin has constantly stressed that this is serious and for a long time.
Undoubtedly, the Kremlin would have taken the chance to assert its superiority in terms of air defense systems. Especially in connection with the launch of the Russian systems of the new generation S-350 and Buk-M3. Russia has been a leader here both in the medium and long term.
Experts spoke enthusiastically about the Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems (SAMs). They managed to sell them to China and Turkey. There was also interest from the Persian Gulf countries. Thus, a breakthrough was made into the military markets of the region, which had previously been rigidly oriented towards the United States and NATO.
Russian Su-27, Su-30 and Su-35 fighter-bombers have proven themselves well in the Syrian sky. Negotiations with a number of countries on the supply of these systems began hot on the heels.
The spring of 2020 became the starting point in the history of sales of the unified combat platform "Boomerang" to foreign markets. Alexander Mikheev, CEO of Rosoboronexport, claimed that countries in Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia and the CIS were interested in acquiring it. He estimated the export volume of this platform in the foreseeable future "at the level of about $ 1 billion."
53% of Russian arms exports were to the Middle East. Moscow could play on Arab discontent with the pace of American arms sales. The United States was not going to accelerate this pace in order not to shake Israel's technological hegemony in the region.
Russia's victory in Ukraine will make the best advertisement for Russian weapons. And it will thoroughly shake the leading positions of the United States in the world market. The effect of such a victory will far surpass the Syrian successes. Of course, it's too early to talk about the outcome of its own – but that's why it's a subjunctive mood.
and others
France is the world leader in terms of the growth rate of arms exports. From 2010 to 2022, the growth was 70%. By the end of 2022, France's share in world exports exceeded 11% for the first time. This result was achieved primarily due to supplies to Egypt, Qatar, and India. It is possible that by the end of the third five-year plan, Russia will give France the second line and move to third place.
China's fourth place in the ranking is based on the high quality of Chinese artillery, multiple rocket launchers, SAMs and armored vehicles.
Germany's fifth place has traditionally been secured by positions in a space that cannot be attributed to either the European Union or NATO. More than 60% of the weapons were sent to "third countries". After the start of the SVO, Germany turned out to be one of the most active suppliers of weapons to Ukraine. But Ukraine has not yet joined either the EU or NATO.
The share of global arms exports from 3.8% to 1.9% corresponds to places from 6th to 10th; from 1.7% to 0.9% - places from 11th to 15th; from 0.8% to 0.3% – places from 16th to 20th.
On the issue of the impact of the conflict in Ukraine on the world arms market. In 2022, the supply of VIVT to the European continent increased unprecedented (+65% for European NATO members). According to the results of the first five months of 2023, Ukraine closed the top three importers on a global scale.
The European Union is still in favor of supplying weapons to Ukraine. At the same time, the issue of reimbursement of such supplies is being actively discussed. EU members are increasingly inclined to launch a mechanism for centralized procurement of VIVT.
ARMS IMPORTS AND MILITARY CLASHES
The list of the leading arms importing states looks like this. 1st place is firmly held by Qatar (12.4%); 2nd - India (8.8%); 3rd – Ukraine (6.3%); 4th - Saudi Arabia (5.6%); 5th – Australia (5.2%), 6th – Algeria (4.9%).
In recent years, imported weapons have played a central role in the armed conflicts between India and Pakistan, Armenia and Azerbaijan, during the military operations in Yemen and Libya.
There are examples when the same exporter supplies weapons to forces on different sides of the front. For example, Russia supplies weapons to both Armenia and Azerbaijan. At the same time, Armenia is an ally of Russia within the framework of the CSTO.
Undoubtedly, in this case, the exporting state has to solve equations with many unknowns.
The legislation of the "States of traditional democracy" prescribes the prohibition of arms supplies to States in which democratic norms are violated, human rights are violated.
But for real practice, the motto "the law is like a drawbar" is more suitable. For example, Washington and London are well aware of the true human rights situation in Saudi Arabia. But they do not abandon the line of increasing arms supplies to this country.
Brest
Mikhail Sagittarius
Mikhail Vasilyevich Strelets – Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor.
