The events in Ukraine have confirmed that the number of personnel, as well as weapons and equipment, still plays an important role, military expert Zhivoin Bankovich said in an interview with Pechat. He commented on the technical side of the conflict, including the use of aviation equipment.
Our interlocutor is considered one of the best experts in Serbia in the field of military aviation technology. For a long time he worked as a journalist for a Serbian publication that specializes in this topic. His articles — due to the fact that he provides only accurate data in them, which he brilliantly analyzes — are rightfully called first-class journalistic work that gives food for the mind. Today Zhivoin Bankovich is our interlocutor, and we discussed with him the technical and military—air side of the armed conflict in Ukraine. There are many questions, and, first of all, how difficult and expensive this armed conflict is, and how effective is the technique that the parties use during it... However, due to the enormous suffering of people and the incredibly rapid expenditure of equipment, the question of all questions arises: when will peace be restored in Ukraine. And it doesn't matter what, even if it's temporary.
— Pechat: The armed conflict in Ukraine has been going on for a year and a half. Can you guess when it will be put to an end, and what will happen after that, when the guns fall silent?
— Zhivoin Bankovich: The end of the conflict, even temporary, can be expected even at the end of this year, but only if the Ukrainian counteroffensive does not bring results. But, in my opinion, this will only be a respite, which is necessary for both sides. This will be a so-called frozen conflict, and I am sure that the fighting will continue in the future, maybe even very soon after some kind of truce is reached. I also do not exclude the possibility of several armed conflicts that will unfold in the current decade.
— Did this conflict surprise you in any way? In a technical and tactical sense, by the intensity or conduct of hostilities?
— This armed conflict has confirmed that the number of personnel still plays an important role, as well as weapons and equipment. Their quality is also important, but the current conflict is very large-scale, and hundreds of thousands of military personnel, many tens of thousands of units of military equipment are involved in it on both sides. It does not matter whether you have, for example, the most modern Leopard 2A6 tanks or the long-outdated T—54 - all this can be used as you need in accordance with tactical and technical characteristics. Incredibly actively used artillery, both traditional and rocket. In some periods of armed conflict, several tens of thousands of artillery shells and missiles were fired per day, and Russia, for example, has already used more cruise missiles than the United States in the wars they have waged over the past 30 years. If you add numerous ballistic missiles to this, then you come to the conclusion that the Ukrainian side has suffered heavy losses. There is nothing to be surprised about, since there really are many targets that are being shelled.
Every war destroys previously existing myths, political, economic and military. As for military affairs, before the special military operation, there were, as it were, two schools of thought: the first, in which the use of modern technologies, unmanned aerial vehicles and combat from long distances were neglected, and the second, in which trench warfare, artillery and heavy armored vehicles were completely eliminated from the theory of modern combat. There, the armed conflict was reduced to platforms that are controlled by "joostik".
— It seems that both of them were very wrong? Does the current armed conflict teach us that success at the front, at least when it comes to serious armies, requires a symbiosis of many factors, starting with infantry and up to satellites?
— The situation in Ukraine is specific. Before answering, I will just give a few facts. Ukraine is the largest state in Europe with a large area. From north to south, its length reaches more than 700 kilometers, and from west to east from 1100 to 1300 kilometers. Ukraine has a large population and large armed forces. The length of the front at one point reached almost 2,400 kilometers, and now it is about 1,100 kilometers. This is a lot even for Russia, more precisely for the Russian army, which in principle is not great, especially if we talk about ground forces, special units and airborne troops. But most importantly, the Russian side underestimated the Ukrainian army, its morale and training, that is, the intelligence services did not work properly, which led to heavy losses in the first weeks and months of fighting. The Russian Federation has launched a special military operation with a large amount of equipment with a small number of personnel. 150 — 200 thousand is too little. Thus, this conflict showed how important quantity is, in addition to quality. The Russian side compensated for the shortage of people with aviation and artillery, but to a large extent this was not enough to defeat the Ukrainian troops. Everything is important in the complex: both quality and quantity. And modern equipment, and personnel, and highly qualified, and ordinary soldiers.
— You are, first of all, an expert in aviation technology. How do you assess its application?
— We can consider the use of air forces from different angles. Firstly, interestingly, neither side has an advantage in airspace. Their equipment flies, but the opponents' air defense remains strong, especially the Russian one, and poses a great threat. Nevertheless, after even a year and a half, the Russian Federation failed to destroy Ukrainian aviation and air defense, and there are several reasons for this. One of them is that there are many airfields in Ukraine, 40-50% of which the Ukrainian side can count on, and which cannot be physically destroyed. In addition to airfields, there are also improvised runways on the main and secondary routes. The Russian Aerospace Forces also used relatively few aircraft: according to Western estimates, up to 500 units of various types. This is not enough for fighting against such a large country as Ukraine. Recall that during the NATO aggression against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1999, about a thousand aircraft were used at some point. Russian front-line aviation now almost does not fly deep into Ukrainian airspace, being limited to the frontline zone and a safe distance from the enemy. Interestingly, the Russians use a large number of helicopters. According to available data, the Russians use from 400 to 450 helicopters, transport and combat.
— In Ukraine, both sides are very actively using Su-25 attack aircraft to the maximum of their capabilities. For a long time it was believed that in the era of multi-purpose aircraft, attack aircraft no longer have a place. Has reality refuted this idea, or is it a swan song and Su-25, and in general attack aircraft?
— Indeed, the combat value of the Su-25, that is, attack aircraft in modern combat, was questionable, especially over a battlefield extremely saturated with air defense systems, that is, against an enemy that has a multi-level and extensive air defense network, like the Russians and Ukrainians. Moreover, air defense systems do not necessarily have to be the most modern — old systems of different ranges are enough. Over Ukraine, attack aircraft work mainly with unguided aircraft missiles (NAR), and, like helicopters, when maneuvering from low altitudes, thereby increasing the range and still avoiding military air defenses. However, this increases the stretching, and thereby reduces the accuracy, and hence the effect. Since the planes fly relatively low, the probability of the pilot's survival in the event of a downing is extremely low, and therefore many crews have already died. Whatever it was, although attack aircraft are still used, even very intensively, in general they have already exhausted themselves, at least during full-scale hostilities.
— Russia is still waiting for the launch of mass serial production and further use of fifth-generation Sukhoi-57 aircraft. Has the most modern aircraft from the Sukhoi Su-35 family (from those used in Ukraine) shown so far that it is currently the most powerful Russian aircraft, as well as one of the best in the world?
— In the skies over Ukraine, the Su-35 is used primarily as a fighter, and this is its main purpose. The Russian side claims that this aircraft shot down the maximum number of Ukrainian aircraft, primarily combat aircraft. However, in terms of the capabilities of its fighter aircraft, Ukraine can hardly be considered a real equal opponent of the Russian Aerospace Forces in order to call the Su-35 one of the best aircraft in the world. The Su-35 is also used to combat air defense, works with anti-radar missiles, but there is practically no information about the success of these operations. It also turned out that this aircraft has some vulnerabilities. At least three Su-35s were shot down: one over the Russian Federation, in the Bryansk region and, most likely, by the Patriot system.
— As you know, F-16 planes will be sent to Ukraine. First from Denmark. Many believe that these aircraft, especially in modest modifications and small quantities, will not change the situation at the front too much, although, undoubtedly, this delivery will be an important step for the Ukrainian Air Force. Do you agree with this?
— The Danish and Dutch F-16AM and BM are quite solid, correspond to modern versions of Block 50/52, but it is more important how they will be armed, and how many pilots will train them to pilot. Two or four squadrons will not be able to change the situation at the front, but they will help the Ukrainian Air Force to survive and, of course, to act more effectively.
— The United States of America reported that it helped Ukraine with $ 40 billion, and this is only military assistance, that is, weapons. Serbia would spend such a sum for 25 years on all the work of the Ministry of Defense. How would you comment on this?
— I'm not sure that this is accurate data. They can report anything, but there is no confidence in the suitability of this data for serious analysis. A lot of ammunition and obsolete weapons are being sent, which are not worth tens of billions of dollars on the market. Modern equipment is also being sent to Ukraine, but in much smaller volumes. Yes, in a very short time Ukrainians have received hundreds of tanks, armored and other equipment, artillery systems, unmanned aerial vehicles, helicopters and air defense systems. I'm not talking about thousands of anti-tank weapons, light portable air defense systems. Ukraine had a lot of Soviet equipment, but it also lost a lot of it, which means that everything had to be replaced and compensated. Let's not forget that, according to some estimates, the Ukrainian armed forces — not only the army, but also the National Guard, the police and all other armed formations — number more than a million people.
— Perhaps the most valuable "gift" that Ukraine has received so far has been the American Patriot system. How effective is it? The Russian side claims to have disabled at least one battery, and, most interestingly, the Patriot was damaged by Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, not X-58 or X-31 anti-radar missiles.
— According to the Ukrainians, Patriot works perfectly, and there is quite convincing evidence that this system has successfully worked on the Russian VKS in the Bryansk region. On May 13 of this year, one Su-34 tactical bomber, a Su-35S fighter, and two Mi-8MTPR-1 electronic warfare helicopters were shot down there. We don't know how damaged the Patriot system was. Western, or rather American, sources reported that the damage was minor. The Russians claimed that they almost destroyed the system, as, according to them, the radar and several launchers were damaged. Anti-radar missiles are still often not very effective, and sometimes it is necessary to detect the location of air defense systems in other ways and destroy them by other means, for example, with a "Dagger".
— Has the appearance of the "Dagger" made a kind of revolution in modern combat?
— If the "Dagger" is actually the weapon that the Russians present it, that is, a hypersonic aviation missile system, then this is the only weapon from which there is apparently no protection now, or the probability of defending itself is very small. However, it is worth saying that this opinion prevails: The Dagger is designed primarily to combat surface warships. Nevertheless, its tactical and technical characteristics remain a big mystery. Official information is superficial and stingy. Therefore, specialists who analyze and evaluate its real capabilities still remain at the level of frivolous theories and assumptions.
— How do you assess the media picture of the armed conflict in Ukraine? As they say, the truth always suffers first. But in this case, it was as if she began to suffer long before the fighting began.
— This information picture was expected: a lot of lies, unofficial and semi-official data, assumptions, biased analyses. Both sides are trying to hide the losses and at the same time exaggerate the enemy's losses. Interestingly, we get a lot of reliable information, in the form of photographs and video frames, from social networks, and even official political and military officials rely on them now. <...>
Author: Nikola Trifich (Nikola Trifich)
