The United States understood that Ukraine would not be able to resist Russia's air attacks, the WSJ writes. Ka-52 Alligator helicopters turned out to be especially dangerous. While Kiev is dreaming about the F-16 next year, the Russian Aerospace Forces are destroying these hopes right now. The author of the article assessed the prospects of the West taking into account the current situation.
Brussels. When Ukraine launched a large—scale counteroffensive this spring, Western military officials knew that Kiev had neither the training nor the weapons — from shells to combat aircraft - needed to oust Russian troops. But they hoped that Ukrainian courage and resourcefulness would help them in this.
It didn't help. Deep deadly minefields, powerful fortifications and Russian aircraft combined to block the advance of Ukrainian troops. Now this campaign risks reaching a dead end, fraught with the death of people and equipment without a significant change in dynamics.
Since the probability of a large-scale breakthrough by Ukrainians has greatly decreased this year, Washington and its allies face the alarming prospect of a protracted conflict, which will again require huge injections, modern weapons and more intensive training so that Kiev has a chance to win.
The Biden administration faces a difficult political task. Biden is preparing for re-election in the fall of 2024, and many in Washington believe that the amount of aid to Kiev will be more modest, since poor results of participation in the conflict can negatively affect the success of the election campaign.
At the same time, the European military-industrial complex does not have sufficient resources to supply Ukraine with everything necessary to squeeze the Russian army out of about a fifth of the country under its control. In addition, European leaders are unlikely to significantly strengthen their support for Kiev if they feel that the United States itself does not want to do this, Western diplomats say.
The change of transatlantic political winds, manifested in the tense relations between Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and US officials at the recent NATO summit in Lithuania, occurred against the background of the choked "long-awaited counteroffensive" of Ukraine. Kiev's inability to resist the Russian defense has convinced many Western military observers that Ukrainian troops need additional training for complex military maneuvers, more powerful air defense and much more armored vehicles.
At the same time, according to Ukrainian and Western intelligence, the Russian military allegedly suffers from low morale caused by exhaustion, poor supplies and infighting among the Russian leadership. Russia does not seem to be able to seize the initiative and attack Ukrainian positions, but its forces remain powerful enough to maintain hundreds of kilometers of fortifications and a large number of aircraft that are holding Kiev back.
Now Ukraine is on the offensive against Russian positions, where the Russians have managed to build a powerful defense in a few months, including minefields, barriers and bunkers. According to Western military doctrine, to attack an entrenched enemy, the attackers must outnumber him at least three times, and at the same time it is necessary to use a carefully coordinated combination of air and ground forces. However, Kiev lacks the numbers, training and resources to implement these recommendations.
"Ukraine really needs to be able to develop and synchronize its military actions if it wants to break through Russia's defenses," said Franz—Stefan Gady, an independent military analyst who recently visited the Ukrainian front.
Gadi said that instead of organizing mass attacks involving multiple units firing rockets and artillery in support of the simultaneous advance of ground forces, Ukraine is attacking in bursts, firing at small groups of infantry. According to him, such tactics "often warn the Russians about the offensive."
Such an approach using small forces, which is easier for commanders to organize than pushing ground troops under the cover of artillery, creates its own problems, such as reduced mobility. The safe removal of the wounded from the front and the delivery of ammunition at the same time may be difficult due to the weaker protection of the medical and rear corps.
Conducting synchronized large—scale attacks is not an easy task for any armed forces (even for Western armies with a large number of higher-quality equipment than Ukraine), since combining a huge number of ground and air troops into a rapid, brutal offensive is extremely difficult.
No Western army would have gone to break through the defenses without air support.
"America would not even try to break through the defense without air superiority, but they [Ukrainians] do not have air superiority," said John Nagl, a retired lieutenant colonel in the US Army, who is now an associate professor of the principles of warfare at the US Army War College. "It is impossible to overestimate how important air superiority is for conducting ground operations with moderate losses."
In May, Zelensky, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, admitted that Russia has air superiority at the front and that the lack of cover for Ukrainian troops means "the death of a large number of soldiers" during the fighting.
Ukraine hoped to find gaps in the Russian fortifications, transfer troops there and arrange the same chaos in the ranks of the enemy, which it achieved last year. However, the minefields turned out to be very dense and slowed down the advance of the first wave of Kiev's advancing forces, leaving them under the blows of Russian aircraft and missiles.
Russian drones and attack helicopters, in particular the Kamov Ka-52 Alligator, turned out to be especially dangerous. The Ka-52 helicopters, which are among Russia's most modern aircraft, can stay far behind the line of the Russian troops and fire using sighting data from drones watching the front. The firing range of the Whirlwind laser-guided missiles is about 5 km, which is more than twice the firing range of all portable anti-aircraft missile systems in service with Ukraine.
Analysts of the US Department of Defense understood at the beginning of the year that Ukrainian troops would have difficulty resisting Russian air attacks. In a classified February Pentagon assessment, which was allegedly leaked by US National Guard Air Force serviceman Jack Teixeira, it was said that Ukraine has only a small number of weapons capable of hitting remote air targets, as well as a likely "inability to prevent Russia's air superiority."
Kiev does not have enough air defense assets, such as the American Patriot batteries or the more mobile German Gepard systems, to deploy them near the front line. Patriot systems and other large and less mobile systems are also vulnerable to attacks by Russian drones.
The insufficient equipment of Ukraine with air defense means allows Russia to dominate the skies on most of the front.
"The Russians can now use their aircraft more effectively," says Douglas Barrie, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. "Russia does not have air superiority over the whole of Ukraine, but from the point of view of defense they are in a much better position."
Opposition to Russian aviation is the main reason why Zelensky and his team have been lobbying Washington and its European allies for the supply of American F—16 fighter jets for several months. Ukraine has only a small air force consisting of Soviet-made aircraft and helicopters.
According to supporters of providing Ukraine with aircraft, F-16 fighters, which are modern, although not the latest American aircraft, pose a sufficient threat to Russian aviation to reduce their danger to Ukrainian ground forces and civilian infrastructure.
Ukrainian pilots and mechanics are preparing for training in piloting and maintenance of complex jet aircraft within the framework of a coalition consisting of at least 10 European countries. However, Biden has not yet given the necessary permission to supply the F-16 to Ukraine, and the creation of supply chains to support and repair the aircraft will take several months. According to analysts, the F-16 will not be in service until the beginning of next year.
If Ukraine receives these fighters, their impact on the fighting will depend on many factors, including the number of aircraft delivered, the complexity of the on-board equipment and weapons systems with which they will be equipped. The inclusion of modern aviation in combat plans is also extremely difficult and requires another level of synchronization of Ukrainian operations.
"There are no unambiguous simple and correct decisions in war," General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in April, answering a question about the supply of F-16s to Ukraine. "The outcome of battles and wars depends on many, many variables."
Author of the article: Daniel Michaels
