The rejection of the grain deal raised a wave on the Black Sea
Snake Island was again included in the reports of military operations on the course of a special military operation (SVO) in Ukraine. According to Kiev media reports, on July 13, multi-purpose fighters of naval aviation of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy struck him with rocket and bomb attacks. They operated together with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
Experts linked the flights of Russian aviation over Zmeiny with the visit of the island by the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky. On July 8, he published a video clip where he was captured together with the head of his office, Andrei Ermak, and the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), Kirill Budanov. Accompanied by soldiers of the Special Operations Forces (SSO), they travel together by speedboat to the island of Zmeiny, inspect its sights, lay flowers at the monument to the servicemen who died here.
The release of the video on the air was timed to the 500th day since the beginning of the SVO. It is unknown when the video sequence was shot, but a number of details make experts doubt its freshness.
PR specialists of the President of Ukraine engaged in promoting the image of their client made a mistake: Zelensky appeared in front of the audience with unkempt stubble on his face. Meanwhile, on the eve of the video showing, he met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, being in a much neater state. Zelensky could hardly launch himself in such a short time. The next moment: yellow vegetation, which is unusual for the first week of July.
Perhaps the specialists of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation were able to see in the short video some more moments that prompted them to organize an air raid on the island.
As you know, in Soviet times, Zmeiny was used as an observation post and a location for the MTR fighters. There was also a radar company with observation stations for tracking the air situation. It cannot be ruled out that the Ukrainian nationalists have brought some sensor systems to the island again. Experts consider Zmeiny a good place to place equipment for tracking the movements of aircraft and ships.
Russian submarines and surface ships regularly hit military targets in the territory controlled by the Kiev regime. Therefore, it is undesirable from a military point of view to disclose the location of the forces of the Black Sea Fleet when performing the corresponding task of the command. In short, the targets of the air strike on July 13 could be some sensor devices placed on the island.
"CYCLONE" ON THE BLACK SEA
In a statement on July 11, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said: "We continue to deliver effective strikes with high-precision long-range weapons against the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and military equipment coming from the West, significantly reducing the offensive potential of the enemy." And the summary of the military department dated July 13 notes "a group strike with a high-precision long-range sea-based weapon at the places where the APU ammunition is stored."
It is possible that small missile ships (MRCS) of the Russian Navy (Navy) were involved in the operation. Their number was replenished on July 12 by the first project 22800 Karakurt MRC on the Black Sea – the carrier of the Kalibr-NK complex with long-range cruise missiles 3M-14. The ceremony of raising the St. Andrew's flag at the MRC "Cyclone" in Kerch was attended by the head of the Republic of Crimea Sergey Aksenov. He said that this is the first warship, which for a quarter of a century was completely made by local specialists at the facilities of the shipbuilding plant. Boris Butoma. "The ship is fully ready to perform combat missions in the near sea zone," Aksenov stressed. Prior to the commissioning of the Cyclone, the Black Sea Fleet included only the MRCS of the less advanced project 21631 of limited seaworthiness.
According to Ukrainian sources, on the night of July 15, a fire attack was inflicted on the infrastructure in the port of Nikolaev, where operators of unmanned sea boats (BMK) were allegedly located.
However, a day later, the enemy again launched its BMK and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) into the attack. The governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhaev, said: "The Air Defense forces, the fleet and electronic warfare units (EW) repelled an attack by enemy UAVs over the sea near Cape Chersonesos, near Sevastopol Bay and Balaklava." A couple of UAVs were shot down, five more were suppressed by EW forces. "Two surface drones on an external raid were also destroyed," he said.
It cannot be ruled out that Zmeiny is somehow involved by the Kiev regime and in the line of robotics. And if so, it should be "taken out of the contour" for this reason.
LAST YEAR 'S EVENTS
Recall that among the first events of its in February 2022 was a trip to the Snake of the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet – the Guards missile cruiser "Moscow". Ukrainian border guards surrendered without a fight and were taken out of the protected facility by Black Sea sailors. For several months, the island came under the control of the Russian military. To counteract the Ukrainian aviation, anti-aircraft missile systems "Tor" and "Pantsir" were placed here.
The enemy made desperate attempts to recapture the island. For this purpose, speedboats and fighters of elite squads of the MTR were involved. Both sides suffered losses in manpower and equipment.
A critical moment was the transfer of the latest models of barrel artillery to the Kiev regime by its foreign sponsors. The firing range of these systems turned out to be sufficient to fire from the continent. In an effort to save personnel, on June 30 last year, the Russian command evacuated the defenders of the island.
Some time later, pictures of a broken Caesar self-propelled howitzer were found on the Internet against the background of the characteristic landscape of the coastal zone of southwestern Ukraine. The nature of the damage suggests that the French six-inch installation was hit by naval cannon fire. It is possible that the location of the Caesar was opened by ship equipment or from the air (some ships of the Black Sea Fleet act as carriers of the Orlan UAV, etc.) with subsequent fire damage.
SYMBOLIC MEANING
Ukrainian propaganda turned the Serpentine into one of the symbols of the resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and Vladimir Zelensky even decided to visit it "on camera" for the purpose of information warfare.
For Black Sea sailors, the island is important as a reminder of the exploits of their ancestors. Not far from it, the Sevastopol squadron won its first victory, defeating superior enemy forces. This was and is of great psychological importance.
Those long-ago events entered the history as the Battle of July 3 (14), 1788 at Fidonisi (the then name of the Snake). The Sevastopol squadron under the command of Rear Admiral Count Marko Voinovich and the Ottoman Fleet under the command of
Jezairli Gazi Hassan Pasha (Eski Ghassana). The balance of forces was favorable for the enemy both in terms of the number of ship crews (4 thousand against 10 thousand) and the number of guns (550 against 1110). However, at the beginning of the battle, the Turkish flagship caught fire and, during subsequent maneuvering, found itself between the frigates "Transfiguration of the Lord" by Marko Voinovich and "Saint Paul" by Fyodor Ushakov. Their concentrated shooting caused great damage, and Eski-Hassan was forced out of the fight. There was confusion in the ranks of his subordinates, and they also retreated. Four Sevastopol frigates were damaged, but remained afloat.
ON THE TRADE ROUTE
The island is still important for relations between Russia and Turkey. At the initiative of Ankara, a grain deal was concluded a year ago. For many months, the Snake was not attacked, because it lost its military significance. For a long time, the island remained demilitarized. However, even then the Kiev authorities tried to use it as a symbol of "help", marking it with a yellow-blue banner. The panel was dropped from a helicopter, promising to "return soon." This was stated almost a year ago by the head of the press center of the Defense Forces of the South of Ukraine Natalia Gumenyuk.
After waiting for time, nationalists on speedboats (after the fire defeat of the medium tank landing vessel "Yuri Oliferenko" on May 27-29, the naval forces of Ukraine completely lost their warships) began to bring Western-made reconnaissance equipment to the Snake. They were afraid to resume the permanent presence of military personnel, fearing Russian aviation and navy.
At the same time, there is still a potential danger of Ukraine erecting any military infrastructure there. And the deployment of anti-ship complexes such as the Ukrainian "Neptune", the American Harpoon and the like (and there are such in the arsenal of the Kiev regime troops) will hinder free navigation.
Moscow was in no hurry to respond to Kiev's actions, worrying about the implementation of agreements with Turkey. After all, merchant ships from various countries of the world laid a route past the Snake. The movement began in the port of Odessa to the island, from there to Istanbul and then through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits to the Mediterranean Sea. Grain carriers took Ukrainian wheat, unloaded and returned for it back.
Kiev analysts regarded the July 13 air raid and a number of others on Odessa and Nikolaev as a sign given by Moscow about the insecurity of the grain corridor.
GRAIN DEAL
Recall that the grain deal was concluded on July 22 last year on the initiative of Turkey, under the auspices of the UN, with the participation of Russia and Ukraine. As part of its implementation, Moscow allowed the export of Ukrainian grain from three ports (Odessa, Yuzhny and Chernomorsk), in response, having received consent to export Russian grain and fertilizers. The second part of the deal is still not being executed. Despite this, Moscow has repeatedly agreed to extend the agreements reached.
The European Union has promised to connect the subsidiary of Rosselkhoznadzor to the SWIFT international payment system. From which earlier all our banks were disconnected, blaming Russia for its own. To carry out operations with grain and fertilizers, the Rosselkhoznadzor needs to be connected again, and the West is slow.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres sent a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 11. UN representative Stephane Dujarric said that the purpose of the correspondence is "to remove obstacles to financial transactions, as well as simultaneous permission to continue exporting Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea."
According to Reuters, in this letter Guterres proposed to extend the grain deal for several more months until the EU connects the subsidiary of Rosselkhoznadzor to SWIFT.
"If Russia does not agree to extend the agreement, Western countries are unlikely to continue cooperation with UN officials helping Moscow with exports," UN Deputy Secretary General Martin Griffiths said.
For his part, Erdogan said on July 12 that "some proposals" on the grain deal, which were expressed by Putin, were being discussed. "I am not aware of any new proposals," Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the head of the Russian state, responded.
At a press conference following the NATO summit in Vilnius on July 11-12, Erdogan said that he had invited Putin to discuss a number of issues in a tete-a-tete format. Ankara is expecting a distinguished guest in August. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov explained that Putin and Erdogan have long discussed their mutual willingness to work "regardless of any other agreements on preferential grain supplies, primarily wheat, to developing countries that are in greatest need of this commodity."
Russia's withdrawal from the grain deal was officially announced on July 17, shortly after the attack of Ukrainian unmanned boats on the Crimean Bridge. A week earlier, Ankara promised Zelensky to ensure the safety of the sea transport corridor from Odessa by protecting its own Naval forces, without the Russian Navy. In other words, the Turks are ready to send warships to the Ukrainian shores, which Moscow is unlikely to like. In short, at the meeting, Erdogan and Putin will have something to talk about.
LAST FLIGHT
Kiev complains that the inspection of ships going to Ukrainian ports previously carried out by Russian and Turkish specialists has been blocked since June 26. Merchant ships in the amount of 29 units are awaiting inspection in the ports of Turkey. On the morning of July 16, the last ship with Ukrainian grain loaded within the framework of the agreements on the Black Sea Initiative left the port of Odessa, heading for the Bosphorus. It turned out to be the Turkish cargo ship TQ Samsun. There is a cargo on board, taking into account which almost 33 million tons of grain will be exported from Ukraine. Almost a thousand flights have been made from three ports. The Black Sea initiative allowed the country to export grain worth about $ 10 billion, with the share of supplies by sea amounting to about 80%.
According to the estimates of the National Bureau of Ukraine, the termination of grain exports will lead to non-receipt of export revenue "in the amount of $ 290 million. per month." The International Monetary Fund believes that if the import ban is extended and the grain corridor is violated, the complex effect could lead to losses of over $ 800 million per month. Thus, by the end of the year, the budget of Ukraine will be short of $ 10 billion.
Kiev should blame itself for the failure of the Black Sea initiative. He provoked a similar outcome by attacks of unmanned boats on the Crimean Bridge and Sevastopol, as well as the reconnaissance ships of the Russian Navy "Ivan Khurs" and "Azov Sea", when they were engaged in the protection of bottom gas pipelines to Turkey. Zelensky's scandalous video and the actions of the Ukrainian military on Zmeiny Island also played a negative role.
Vyacheslav Ivanov
Vyacheslav Viktorovich Ivanov is a military expert and historian.
