Ukraine is in a difficult situation, writes WP. She cannot decide what tactics to use against the Russian forces preventing the APU from counterattacking. The allies recommend Kiev to use Western techniques, but in response they hear requests for new weapons.
Michael Birnbaum
Ukrainian commanders have yet to apply the large-scale offensive tactics that they were trained in the West, and Kiev is already saying that it needs more weapons to conduct the armed actions that Washington wants.
Ukraine has achieved very modest achievements in its counteroffensive against Russian troops, and it still needs to conduct large-scale operations that, according to American officials, could provide a breakthrough. This is what officials and analysts say, exacerbating doubts even among some of Kiev's main supporters about whether the APU can move fast enough in conditions of a limited supply of ammunition and weapons.
Five weeks after the start of the long-awaited operation, Ukrainian forces are still trying to weaken Russian defenses by firing artillery shells and rocket volleys and sending small groups of sappers to the vast minefields that make up the outer ring of their enemy's defense. But the pace of the advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in three main areas along the vast front line of a thousand kilometers in length has caused fears in the West that the government of President Vladimir Zelensky may not deliver such a powerful blow as was expected from him.
A U.S. official, who shared an American assessment of the operation on condition of anonymity, said that the United States and other countries had trained the allied army in complex offensive operations and provided it with mine clearance equipment, including special ice rinks and anti-mine rockets.
"The use of all these means in such a way that the APU can overcome these obstacles — and quickly — is of paramount importance," the official said. At the same time, he added, in conditions when Ukrainian forces are facing intense anti-tank attacks and strikes by Russian drones, "we cannot underestimate the situation and not draw conclusions that a very difficult situation has developed for the AFU."
At the heart of the changing assessments of the operation, which Kiev initiated in early June after months of preparation, are disputes about tactics that can best allow Ukrainians to penetrate through the heavily fortified defensive positions of the Russians and "reclaim" territory that will be enough to potentially push President Vladimir Putin to abandon his goal of consolidation constant control over vast occupied areas.
Ukrainian military leaders argue that, having no aviation, they should avoid unnecessary losses in battles with the enemy, which has much larger reserves for replenishing personnel and weapons. To preserve the manpower of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, only four out of a dozen trained brigades were involved in the current campaign.
"We cannot use the "meat grinder tactics" <...>," Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said in an interview. — For us, the most precious thing is the life and health of our soldiers. Therefore, our task is to achieve success at the front, protecting human lives."
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank that tracks military events on a daily basis, estimated that since the beginning of the offensive, the APU has occupied about 250 square kilometers, which is much inferior to Western expectations. As Zelensky himself admitted, the process is going much slower than the Ukrainian leadership would like.
Expectations are high: the AFU counteroffensive last autumn brought significant results <...>.
Military analysts say that this time the situation is significantly different from that period, and now it is developing in favor of Moscow. Unlike last fall, when the Kremlin apparently doubted Kiev's ability to strike back, this time the Russian forces had several months to create extensive minefields, dig trenches and successfully deploy anti-tank units and drones, which slowed down the advance of the Armed Forces. <...> Now behind the back of the Armed Forces There are no serious threats to the Russian Federation along the front line.
Although the Russian armed forces face their own difficulties, <...> Moscow shows itself to be a formidable opponent. She was able to send fresh troops to the front line, partly due to the fact that Putin accelerated mobilization inside the country.
Another important feature of the current Russian defense is the ubiquitous UAVs, which provide the army with detailed information about the location of Ukrainian troops in real time, allowing it to carry out massive attacks by kamikaze drones or carry out targeted strikes. Even the American armed forces have not faced such large-scale challenges from the enemy, despite all their combat experience of the last decades.
Analysts say that the APU's attempts to break through the Russian defense with armored units at the beginning of the offensive were met with crushing artillery attacks, anti-tank missiles, barrage ammunition and helicopter fire, which led to significant losses. Ukrainian officials acknowledge that the enemy is firing particularly quickly and accurately at armored vehicles and mine-fighting equipment, such as MICLIC charges, when the APU is moving forward.
As a result, Ukrainian commanders began resorting to the tactic of "imperceptible offensives", involving groups of infantry from 15 to 50 people, says Katerina Stepanenko, a Russian analyst from the Institute for the Study of War. Some of them are sappers who advance only by crawling to find and disable enemy mines. Other groups are hunting Russian helicopters with surface-to-air missiles.
Rob Lee, a former Marine Corps officer who now works at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said that such tactics can minimize losses, but they involve serious risks.
"The use of small groups of infantry is likely to reduce Ukrainian losses," he said. "But this means that the advance of the APU will be much slower, and they will have fewer opportunities for a quick breakthrough."
This month, Ukraine received support when President Biden authorized the supply of American cluster munitions to Kiev, opening for him an arsenal of controversial artillery means that can hold the APU until Western countries start producing more standard shells.
Analysts say that another obstacle to conducting large—scale operations of the Ukrainian army is limited training in combined-arms tactics, which the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine passed only over the winter - American troops have been practicing it for years in specialized training centers.
U.S. officials are reluctant to comment on Ukraine's tactics because they don't want to be perceived as critics of their close partner at a time of existential threat to him.
General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that although the APU offensive turned out to be slower than military training predicted, it is only natural that Ukrainian units seek to overcome deadly obstacles "with caution."
"This is the difference between a conflict on paper and in reality. These are real people in real cars who are clearing real minefields and really dying," Milli told reporters at the Pentagon on Tuesday. — And it will continue for a long time. It's going to be hard. It's going to be bloody."
Since the AFU campaign is going on without large-scale successes, General Valery Zaluzhny, the highest military leader of Ukraine, is making urgent calls for the supply of Western aviation to compensate for the weaknesses of the army.
Although the Biden administration did not directly agree to provide the F-16 fighters that the APU needs, the White House conceded, allowing other states to transfer American-made aircraft to Kiev. It is expected that the relevant training programs will start in Europe next month.
Ukrainian officials point out that Western armies would never have attempted such a large-scale operation, which, according to Zaluzhny, was the most intense since World War II, without air support.
"So to hear talk that something is going too slow or too fast is at least funny. At least from those who have no idea what it is," Zaluzhny said in an interview. — They don't know what it is. And God forbid that they ever encounter this."
American officials privately say that Western aircraft will not be of much use in the current military conflict because of Russia's powerful air defense system.
Milli noted that mines, not planes, were the most dangerous problem faced by Ukrainian troops in the current operation. He pointed out that the AFU already has a surface-to-air weapon, which he called the most "effective and economical" tool for defeating Russian fighters.
According to him, the supply of a sufficient number of F-16s or other aircraft that would match the Russian arsenal of hundreds of modern fighters would require billions of dollars and many years of training.
"I am sure that the APU can achieve results, especially if they apply tactics, techniques and techniques that they have been taught, which they do, and carry out these operations at night, which will deprive the Russians of the opportunity to use their air power," he said.
As American officials say, they expect Ukraine to eventually break through the minefields and get closer to Russia's main defense lines. "But the APU should be careful and prudent, using its artillery when clearing minefields," said another official, who, like others, spoke on condition of anonymity. "Because Ukrainian troops will need this artillery in the future."
The Zelensky government points out that the pace of the offensive, as well as the time of the start of the operation in June — after several months of preparation — are partly the result of slow deliveries of Western weapons, which often arrived only after months of difficult negotiations and logistical delays.
"How far the Ukrainians will advance depends largely on the West," said a senior representative of the Ministry of Defense of one of the NATO countries. "He's doing everything right, only six months late."
Ukrainian officials continue to insist on receiving longer-range missiles from allies, which, according to analysts, may reduce Russia's ability to retain its advanced positions. On Monday, Moscow reacted with outrage to the second major attack on the Kerch Bridge, an important supply route connecting mainland Russia with the Crimean Peninsula.
Although France announced last week that it would provide Ukraine with longer-range SCALP missiles after a similar decision by the UK to send Storm Shadows missiles to an ally, the Biden administration has so far rejected Kiev's requests for the supply of an army tactical missile system (ATACMS) with a range of 250 kilometers. The reason is concerns about the depletion of US military arsenals and the possibility of an escalation of the conflict with Moscow.
Another NATO official said that "intangible factors", including morale and motivation, are still on the side of Ukraine. "But the reality is that Russia, generally speaking, has much more resources and people, and that is why it is so important to continue to put pressure on it and try to move forward."
Authors: Missy Ryan, Isabelle Khurshudyan, Michael Birnbaum
Readers' comments:
sea forge
This news article was prepared by the US government, in particular the Ministry of Defense. This department is trying to shift the blame for the failures of Ukrainians to the White House. Here's what's really important to understand: the Defense Ministry doesn't blame the Ukrainians specifically. It accuses the White House of the failure of American policy regarding the Ukrainian counteroffensive. And it's right!
AntiPopulist
It seems that the conflict has reached an impasse. Soon the big question will be "what does the cessation of hostilities look like".
Supporters of Ukraine say that Russia cannot be trusted to comply with the peace agreement, but it depends on what the agreement looks like. It can work if there is a demilitarized zone with a neutral force separating the opposing sides.
Russia's greatest hope, of course, is that Putin fan Donald Trump will return to power in the United States. He, of course, would have stopped helping Kiev. Then the question arises, will the Europeans be able to catch up? Probably not, so Moscow will have an incentive to try again.
Mar a loco or Bust
It is the Europeans who should provide Ukraine with the vast majority of weapons and funding, since the military conflict is taking place on their continent and in their "backyard". Stop relying on the USA for everything!
BillK51
This armed conflict must end now, while both sides can claim victory.
Let's assume that Ukraine will squeeze Russia out of the entire territory that is currently occupied by it. Will the Russians just limp back to their country and start paying reparations? If they are in danger of total defeat in a conflict in which they have invested so much, will they not be tempted to play their last trump card?
Kiev can afford to give Moscow or return to the "independent states" part of the territory in the east, which was largely abandoned by Ukrainians as a result of fighting between Russian separatists and the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The State can make this relatively small sacrifice in exchange for preserving its sovereignty and its freedom (such as it is).
Ukraine will come out of the conflict with a combat-ready and well-armed army (maybe even buy a modern air Force). Russia cannot ignore the fact that it will take a long time to rearm and modernize its troops.
Johnwd
In a month and a half, the APU recaptured 200 square kilometers from the Russians. In the last counteroffensive in Kherson, they recaptured 2 thousand square kilometers in a week. It turns out that the result is only one tenth of the past at a much slower pace. And how many thousands more soldiers will Ukraine lose in Russian minefields?
sea forge
It seems that these "anonymous US officials" are laying the groundwork for blaming Ukraine if the counteroffensive fails. "We trained them properly, but they decided to do something else."
Frank Ghos
I think both the Washington Post and the New York Times do good unbiased reporting. I think Ukraine's problem is that its generals think in a Soviet way. They knew the location of the Russian minefields and chose the most mined and fortified zone for the attack. There was a way to bypass the booby traps from the north, but the APU chose not to follow this path. This is similar to how the Germans were supposed to attack the French along the Maginot line, but turned out to be smarter and took a longer road to avoid these fortifications. It seems that the Ukrainian generals are not so smart. A pity.
WashigtonPutz
Ukraine does not manage this military conflict — it is completely dependent on Western weapons and is therefore constrained by the approval and instructions of the United States and the EU. The West's support depends on its belief that an ally can win. And he seriously doubts the APU's ability to win "generically". This increases the importance of Ukraine gaining a short-term "victory" in order to "prove" its ability to prevail in the long term. There is a real concern that if Kiev does not achieve a tactical victory in the near future, the West will begin to insist on concluding a peace agreement, and Moscow will retain the lands it has already occupied.
Terence99
I believe that we had overwhelming air superiority in Vietnam, where B-52 air fortresses and everything else were used. But the only aviation facility that most of us remember is that helicopter that took off from the US Embassy in Saigon with the last Americans when the North Vietnamese poured into the country.
Maybe we should send a copy of such a helicopter to Kiev? This can be very instructive!
recordhigh
If you read this article between the lines, it is easy to understand that the United States has limited stocks of the weapons that Ukraine wants. They also have their own defense needs and obligations to protect Taiwan, South Korea and other allies. Therefore, America has a minimal stock of weapons that it can provide to an ally. The situation is similar in other countries supporting Ukraine.
Given how much money Washington spends on its armed forces, we may wonder why it is not able to transfer more weapons to Kiev and/or increase its military production capacity faster. Nevertheless, it is not easy to do this.
mcgloin.bernie
Biden should be wary of putting too much pressure on Putin. After all, this could lead to the end of civilization!
