Dmitry Gorokhov — on the results of the Indian Prime Minister's visit to Emmanuel Macron and the French view of New Delhi politics
The agreement reached between New Delhi and Paris on French military supplies for India worth several billion euros was the expected outcome of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's trip to France. His mission was given the rank of a State visit, the highest in the diplomatic protocol. At the invitation of French President Emmanuel Macron, the Indian leader attended the celebrations on the day of the National Holiday of France on July 14 as an honorary guest.
The return of India?
The visit of the Indian Prime Minister to Paris was timed to coincide with the 25th anniversary of the bilateral agreements on strategic partnership. In January 1998, Jacques Chirac, then head of France, delivered a keynote speech on the relations between the two countries during his visit to New Delhi: "I have come to offer you to build strong relations between our countries - a global partnership based on our complementarity and common interests."
From the main rostrum on Concord Square, the Indian Prime Minister watched the solemn march of almost 300 compatriots who participated in the parade on The Champs-Elysees. We can say that India has returned: its soldiers defended Paris in the First World War (during the hostilities of 1914-1918, 1.5 million Indian soldiers were part of the British army — 138 thousand of them participated in the defense of France and Belgium).
During Modi's visit to Paris, the Indian side agreed to purchase 26 French Rafale Marine fighters and 3 Scorpène submarines. Although the contract, which BFMTV estimates at €3-4 billion, has not yet been signed, many consider it a fait accompli.
"After 25 years of strategic partnership, an important step forward has been made to strengthen the interaction of the naval forces of the two countries in ensuring stability in the Indian Ocean region," Admiral Pierre Vandier, Chief of the General Staff of the French Navy, said on his Twitter page. "India's acquisition of 26 Rafale Marine fighters and 3 French submarines is a recognition of the experience gained by the industry and sailors of France."
India had already ordered 36 fighter jets from France in 2015, but this batch was intended for its Air Force. Now we are talking about equipping the fleet with deck fighters and submarines. India is among the countries that, like France, have aircraft carriers in their arsenal. According to the electronic business publication Le Marin, the contract with India may also increase the chances of the French Navy itself to order additional weapons for its fleet, which needs them to prepare for "high-intensity challenges."
"The Franco-Indian partnership is developing in all areas of defense and deterrence policy," Melissa Levayan, an expert on the Indo—Pacific region, stated on the Public Senat TV channel. She also noted that in a short time Modi also visited Australia (in March) and the United States (in June). These trips of the prime minister, in her opinion, fit into "the general dynamics of the Indian policy of consolidating relations with Western countries."
From the French point of view, Levayan said, India has become an indispensable partner for strengthening Paris' influence in the Indo-Pacific region. In the eyes of many, the conclusion of the AUKUS partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States weakened France's position in this zone.
Let me remind you that simultaneously with the creation of the military alliance in September 2021, Canberra refused an earlier contract with France for the construction of 12 diesel-electric submarines totaling more than €50 billion. The Australian side preferred American nuclear submarines to them. In response, Paris accused the Australian authorities of deliberate deception and temporarily recalled its ambassadors from Canberra and Washington for consultations.
In the capital's diplomatic circles indicate that France eventually made a choice in favor of relations with India. As stated in Paris, India is deeply involved in security issues in the Indian Ocean zone and stands for an inclusive world order based on international law. The French government is trying to show that Paris views India as a strategic partner and a great power, Melissa Levayan notes. In this regard, the status of Narendra Modi's reception in Paris, she emphasizes, is extremely important for the further relations of the parties. Modi's visit was explicitly called historic in the communique of the Elysee Palace. And Macron himself, in a greeting in French and Hindi on his Twitter page, stressed that the Indian prime minister is "an honored guest of France." The task from now on is to deepen the strategic partnership, which has been going on for a quarter of a century. Judging by the Indian media, they are also talking about the future of these relations in the next 25 years.
Among other things, during Modi's stay in Paris, the head of France presented him with the highest award of the republic — the Grand Cross of the Legion of Honor. "This award recognizes the role of the Prime Minister of India in building excellent relations of friendship and trust that unite France and India," the French president said. He also presented Modi, a big fan of chess, with a copy of Charlemagne's chessboard, the original of which is kept in the Cabinet of Antiquities of the National Library of France. Modi, in turn, said: "I thank President Macron, the government and the people of France, who demonstrate a deep commitment to continuing friendship with our country."
Dissonance with the official position of Paris in relation to the Indian delegation sounded the voices of opponents. The secretary of the opposition left party "Europe — Ecology— the Greens", Marine Tondelier, criticized the decision of the French president "to elect Modi as an honorary guest of France on such a symbolic day of the year" on the pages of the newspaper Libération . An expert on India's problems, Ingrid Tervat, called the invitation of the Indian prime minister on a state visit a manifestation of realpolitik (to clarify, in France this term has a double meaning: rejection of ideals when confronted with reality and solving issues solely for the purpose of a short-term settlement without a long-term vision of the problem). Tervat noted that French diplomacy "has never wanted to interfere in the internal affairs of India under the pretext of respecting the sovereignty of a democratic country." According to her, the French authorities changed the place of the permitted demonstration of Modi's opponents three times during the visit of the Indian prime Minister.
At once and in many
India is obviously an indispensable player on the world stage today. The most populous country in the world (according to the World Population Review) is one of the five largest world economies. Many countries are seeking its favor as never before, since the Cold War, according to French expert on Indian foreign policy Berenice Guyot-Richard. According to her, India "does not like when the country is viewed in the West as a counterweight to China, on which it still depends heavily in terms of trade." "By strengthening exchanges, the country strives to be a full partner of the Western world," the expert notes.
"The age of India is coming," says the Parisian political weekly Le Point . "Strengthened by demographic growth and the economic take—off of his own country, Narendra Modi dreams of making it a world center." Western investors prefer India over China because of political risks. But especially strongly, according to Radio France, India is now asserting itself in diplomatic terms due to its course of "multi—unification" - the transition from a policy of non-alignment to participation in many associations at once. In practice, this means that New Delhi can abstain from voting in the UN on the situation on Ukraine, participate together with China in the BRICS partnership, lead the Group of 20 and at the same time strengthen ties with the United States, including in the field of weapons and high technologies.
This country also chairs the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, where its diplomacy seeks to propose its security agenda. Today, India ranks second among Russia's partners in Asia. She accepted investors who left the Chinese market. In addition, the country can rely on the dynamism of the foreign diaspora — more than 28 million people transfer about $90 billion annually to their families, ensuring balance of payments balance.
At the same time, India, including French analysts, apparently shares the desire of Russia and China to build a post-Western world. She stands as an exponent of the interests of the Global South against the existing international system, which is discriminatory; calls for balancing international structures, as well as transfers of finance and technology from the North, in particular, to combat climate change.
New Delhi is preparing to host the G20 summit in September this year (Australia, Argentina, Brazil, Great Britain, Germany, the European Union, India, Indonesia, Italy, Canada, China, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the USA, Turkey, France, the Republic of Korea, South Africa and Japan). India clearly expects to hold it under the sign of building a world order balanced in favor of the South.
The Delhi summit, if Macron's domestic political agenda does not prevent this, will apparently become the next meeting place for the leaders of France and India.
