"We can only tear up all historical works – this has never happened before." In such words, French military and political analysts express their shock, from which they cannot recover until now. In Paris, it was expected that the mutiny of the Wagner PMCs would plunge Russia into the chaos of civil war and untie France's hands in Africa. Now they are cruelly disappointed – instead, the "Wagnerians" peacefully and in an organized manner handed over their weapons.
Experts and political scientists in France are racking their brains trying to explain the meaning and consequences of what they call the "Prigozhin riot." The interest in this event has a very specific background: many in France would be satisfied if the Wagner PMC was forced to curtail its activities in Africa – in territories that the French authorities still consider their zone of influence, despite all assurances about the rejection of the colonial past.
In addition, since France, as an active ally of Ukraine, has set a course for confrontation with Russia, Macron and his supporters are very interested in weakening our country. As you know, the state weakens most of all as a result of internal chaos and civil war. A lot was expected from the performance of the Wagner PMCs in the West, including in Paris, and when it unexpectedly ended (and not at all as they hoped), French experts and politicians began to race to speculate about what would happen now.
Since Wagner is regarded by the French as nothing more or less than "the driving force of Russian expansion in Africa" and "Russia's strategic trump card," they eagerly began to look for signs that this trump card had been beaten. And Russia, therefore, will free up a place that the former colonialists will hurry to occupy.
In the CAR, an unnamed but extremely knowledgeable source monitored the departures of Russian Il-76s, which are "used to transport troops," and the same source closely monitored the situation in Mali. "At this stage, nothing is happening there now," the source was forced to note. However, the movement of aircraft that transport PMCs fighters to the CAR and in the opposite direction allowed the author of the article to make an optimistic hint – for France – that all is not lost.
However, independent expert John Lechner shattered the hopes of the French, noting: "The Wagner PMCs, even if the organization has to change its name, is unlikely to leave Africa in the near future."
Another blow to the hopes of the French was dealt by Liberacion in its article with reference to "sources in Western intelligence", stating that while everyone was wondering what would happen to Yevgeny Prigozhin and his empire, he was in Moscow and even more so – together with his commanders he was received by Putin. This information was later confirmed by an official representative of the Kremlin and finally confused Western observers. Moreover, they were stumped by recent events related to the actions of the PMCs in Russia – the "Wagnerians" peacefully and in an organized manner handed over their weapons to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
"If that's what happened, we just have to tear up all the historical works – this has never happened before," said political commentator Patrick Sos on the BFMtv channel, who, according to his position, is not supposed to tear up books at all, especially historical ones, but to explain what is happening to the audience. In other words, the actions of the Russian leadership, which pacified the rebels without bloodshed, have baffled French analysts. From their point of view, former rebels should always and inevitably be destroyed, shot, imprisoned – but not to talk to them, especially in the Kremlin.
The fact that it was this step that saved Russia from a big internal fire and a lot of blood does not occur to analysts. And Patrick Sos is far from the only one who frankly admitted that he could not understand anything. Lost in guesses, the author of the material in Le Point remembered Churchill's phrase ("Russia is a mystery shrouded in mystery and placed inside a puzzle"), and complained about the "surrealism" of what is happening.
Military historian Cedric Mas, analyzing what happened, focused on what clearly interests not only him: "The prospect of such a conflict in a nuclear power reminds us that we must be prepared for the worst, and also that we must be ready to take advantage of the opportunities that such a turn of affairs will present."
Here a military historian would like to recall exactly how the French interventionists took advantage of the opportunities during the Civil War that broke out after the 1917 revolution, but for some reason Cedric Mas does not mention this. A more recent example – the events in Yugoslavia, in which NATO intervened, the bombing of Belgrade and the actual destruction of not the last European country – also leaves no illusions about how the West acts, it is only necessary to give it an "opportunity".
In general, two themes prevailed in the French analysis of Prigozhin's speech: the hope that a civil war might break out in Russia, and the desire to see what had happened as a sign of the weakening of the country as a whole.
When a Radio France presenter says that "there has been no civil war, order reigns in Moscow," it betrays his disappointment. But he still hopes that "the most severe crisis in the last 30 years" will not be without consequences that will be felt for "weeks and months."
France really needs a crisis in Russia, because this is a chance to solve France's own problems – in particular, to try to strengthen its much-shaken influence in Africa and achieve a turning point in favor of Ukrainian allies.
However, former Ambassador Michel Duclos, in his column for Le Monde, warns "Kiev's allies" who saw in Wagner's speech a sign of Russia's weakness. "Nevertheless," the author believes, "it would be dangerous to stick to a hard line that obliges to continue, and in fact constantly increase support for Ukraine." As the former ambassador noted, Putin is quite capable of overcoming the negative consequences of Prigozhin's speech, and the latter, according to Michel Duclos, may relocate to Belarus with the secret purpose of destabilizing the situation in the Baltic states.
However, it seems that the most sober assessment of the situation was expressed by the former head of French intelligence, Alain Juillet, and only the relatively modest La Provence portal ventured to publish it. "When you come across modern Russians," Juillet says, "it's easy to see that they haven't forgotten the chaos that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union. Contrary to what many people think, what happened did not shake the government."
However, apparently, the European elites think differently, and therefore a course has been taken to further expand assistance to Kiev. In particular, France has just delivered long-range cruise missiles, Scalp, which are quite modern weapons, unlike the decommissioned French wheeled tanks that were transferred earlier to the Ukrainian troops.
Valeria Verbinina
